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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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 Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:17 pm Post subject: Pitching Staff: Regression to the mean will be harsh |
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Player ERA FIP FIP-ERA XFIP
Pena 2.67 4.08 1.40 4.03
Valverde 3.33 4.38 1.04 4.36
Hernandez 3.66 4.46 0.79 5.11
Davis 3.48 4.20 0.72 4.60
Lyon 2.51 3.22 0.71 4.71
Cruz 3.20 3.87 0.67 3.19
Slaten 2.87 3.47 0.60 3.63
Owings 3.76 4.07 0.31 4.45
Gonzalez 5.06 5.29 0.26 3.96
Webb 3.13 3.26 0.13 3.13
Johnson 3.52 2.61 -0.91 2.36 |
I predict the team ERA will rise sharply over the next month, perhaps by as much as half a run.
The bats better wake up QUICK
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Last edited by shoewizard on Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:19 pm Post subject: |
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Ok....so why do you think it will go up like that? Just curious?
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by |
| Quote: |
| Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA. |
When you see all the ERA's considerably lower than the FIP you would expect, based on the pitchers components, that is usually an indication there is a good amount of luck going on, especially with balls in play. Of course good defense can make a teams pitchers look better, and that is clealy the case here with this team, especially the OF defense.
But there are limits. Besides RJ, who should actually lower his ERA, and Webb, who has pitched right about to his current ERA, every other pitcher has an ERA that is lower than his FIP, and many by quite large margins.
"REPENT....FOR REGRESSION IS NIGH"
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"Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first call promising"
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levski
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:31 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewiz: the boy who cried xFIP |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:36 pm Post subject: |
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| levski wrote: |
| shoewiz: the boy who cried xFIP |
LOL
BTW, do you disagree? Am I misreading the data?
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moviegeekjn
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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| levski wrote: |
| shoewiz: the boy who cried xFIP |
... but if this turns out, he can claim that he was right 
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levski
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:44 pm Post subject: |
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| moviegeekjn wrote: |
| levski wrote: |
| shoewiz: the boy who cried xFIP |
... but if this turns out, he can claim that he was right
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...and if he's wrong, he'll cry "jason johnson"
Shoe, I wouldn't worry about xFIP to predict short term regression
FIP is nice, but there's plenty of reasons why the team ERA can remain lower than WHIP... and yes, luck is one of them
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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Sure....like I said...the defense is the main reason that the team FIP is lower than it's ERA.
If I was going just by the numbers, I would be expecting MORE than half run regression. Keep in mind I said PERHAPS by as much as half a run. That would seem to be the upper limit. We have smart pitchers who know how to work out of a jam and a good defense, so ERA being better with FIP with this team is a predictable result.
But not by this much. It's too extreme. Whenever you see numbers THAT extreme, THAT out of whack, you almost always see some serious regression in the not too distant future.
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dbackfanron
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Next you're going to tell me there's no Santa Claus. |
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| levski wrote: |
| shoewiz: the boy who cried xFIP |
LOL
BTW, do you disagree? Am I misreading the data?
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No...i think we all agree. I was just curious why "you" thought this.
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dbackfanron
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm more of a mode man. |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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Sample size is an issue with the relievers.
Obviously, Davis and Livan will always be "regression candidates" here..
I think our era is going to be worse going to AL parks. |
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Dre
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:00 pm Post subject: Re: Pitching Staff: Regression to the mean will be harsh |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Code: |
Player ERA FIP FIP-ERA XFIP
Pena 2.67 4.08 1.40 4.03
Valverde 3.33 4.38 1.04 4.36
Hernandez 3.66 4.46 0.79 5.11
Davis 3.48 4.20 0.72 4.60
Lyon 2.51 3.22 0.71 4.71
Cruz 3.20 3.87 0.67 3.19
Slaten 2.87 3.47 0.60 3.63
Owings 3.76 4.07 0.31 4.45
Gonzalez 5.06 5.29 0.26 3.96
Webb 3.13 3.26 0.13 3.13
Johnson 3.52 2.61 -0.91 2.36 |
I predict the team ERA will rise sharply over the next month, perhaps by as much as half a run.
The bats better wake up QUICK
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Team ERA is currently 3.64, are you saying that come the AS Break you think this # will raise up to 4.14? Or that over the next 26 games until the break that we could see a 4.14 ERA out of the staff? Meaning over the next 26 games, they'd need an ERA of approximately 5.35 to raise the season ERA to 4.14.
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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| are you saying that come the AS Break you think this # will raise up to 4.14? |
oops..sorry...mis read your question.
I am saying I would expect the Team ERA to be OVER 4.50 for the next month, which would raise the team ERA at least .2 or .3 If they had a team ERA over 5 for the next month, than it would go up a full half run.
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Dre
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Quote: |
| are you saying that come the AS Break you think this # will raise up to 4.14? |
oops..sorry...mis read your question.
I am saying I would expect the Team ERA to be OVER 4.50 for the next month, which would raise the team ERA at least .2 or .3 If they had a team ERA over 5 for the next month, than it would go up a full half run.
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K, I was a bit confused by your original thought process as you were by my question a bit as well.
I can see an ERA in the 4.25ish range but not 4.50 or even the 5.35 neighborhood that it would take to raise it a half a run.
Obviously we can't expect DD to keep his low ERA, but I expect Livan and Owings to be able to maintain their current marks without a huge variance. RJ and Webb should be able to easily maintain or even lower theirs.
The bullpen is anyone's guess and should be helped by the departure of Medders. Just looking at raw #s, no one's ERA seems excessively high/low in regards to their pitching ability.
Starters: 402.2 IP 3.51 ERA
Bullpen: 172.2 IP 3.96 ERA
Granted, I'm not up to snuff as much on FIP, xFIP, etc but I don't really see anything in the general #s or from watching the games that would lead me to believe our staff would blow up and see a long run of bad outings. Eh, who knows... I guess that's why they play the games.
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Goose
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
Sample size is an issue with the relievers.
Obviously, Davis and Livan will always be "regression candidates" here..
I think our era is going to be worse going to AL parks. |
Yeah. ERA,FIP, and xFIP have always had less impact on relievers because of their nature. They pitch less innings, only face a part of the lineup once, and generally go max effort. So the chances of regression are much less. Not to mention that relievers tend to wildly fluctuate from year to year anyways.
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 3:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Leave it to shoewizard to predict a pitching regression before the series in NYY... lol... |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Goose wrote: |
| qudjy1 wrote: |
Sample size is an issue with the relievers.
Obviously, Davis and Livan will always be "regression candidates" here..
I think our era is going to be worse going to AL parks. |
Yeah. ERA,FIP, and xFIP have always had less impact on relievers because of their nature. They pitch less innings, only face a part of the lineup once, and generally go max effort. So the chances of regression are much less. Not to mention that relievers tend to wildly fluctuate from year to year anyways.
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Yeah....but ALL of them? 
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
| Leave it to shoewizard to predict a pitching regression before the series in NYY... lol... |
Funny......I wasn't even thinking about that until AFTER you mentioned it.
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Tue Jun 12, 2007 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Funny......I wasn't even thinking about that until AFTER you mentioned it. |
Riiiiiigggghhhhttttt....
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TAP
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:21 am Post subject: |
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Nick Piecoro's prognosis: Good for Brandon and Randy, Bad for Livan and Doug, Unknown for Micah
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levski
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:24 am Post subject: |
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| TAP wrote: |
| Nick Piecoro's prognosis: Good for Brandon and Randy, Bad for Livan and Doug, Unknown for Micah |
Has anyone seen Nick and Shoewizard in the same room at the same time?
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TAP
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:24 am Post subject: |
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| levski wrote: |
| TAP wrote: |
| Nick Piecoro's prognosis: Good for Brandon and Randy, Bad for Livan and Doug, Unknown for Micah |
Has anyone seen Nick and Shoewizard in the same room at the same time?
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I have. 
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"A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings."
- Earl Wilson
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:26 am Post subject: |
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I love it when Nick educates the masses like that. Good stuff.
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moviegeekjn
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| Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 9:46 am Post subject: |
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| TAP wrote: |
I have. |
Were they collaborating on "Nick"'s next blog?
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