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Chris Young, best prospect in baseball?
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:34 pm    Post subject: Chris Young, best prospect in baseball? Reply with quote

The Hardball Times Thinks so.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Chris Young, best prospect in baseball? Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
The Hardball Times Thinks so.

Good article, shoe.

That highlights just how pathetic it was for Melvin to have benched Young after his August call-up in favor of Byrnes and Gonzalez.
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just can't stop smiling. Very Happy
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

B. O. N. D. wrote:
I just can't stop smiling. Very Happy


You don't say??? Wink

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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 6:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"This is an offseason where organizations are investing tens of millions of dollars on five-year deals for players like Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr.. There's a good chance Chris Young outperforms both of those guys in 2007 for about one-twentieth of the salary. "


i for one will look at those numbers compared to him all year
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One key for everyone is going to have to be to focus on OBP with Young, as he is likely to still struggle with his batting average at times.

The average fan will not be as enamored with young until he goes 30-30, because they don't understand or appreciate OBP, thanks to the total neglect of this stat on Television and in the media.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
One key for everyone is going to have to be to focus on OBP with Young, as he is likely to still struggle with his batting average at times.

The average fan will not be as enamored with young until he goes 30-30, because they don't understand or appreciate OBP, thanks to the total neglect of this stat on Television and in the media.


I think Sutton may be the kind of guy that will point that out more often. At least that is my impression from his Blog.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps....but don't mistake him for a Sabermetric guy.

From what I understand, they were already planning on having OBP featured more often in 2007 broadcasts. It had something to do with where they were getting there stat graphics package from, and they SHOULD be able to show it more often in 2007.
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qudjy1
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Perhaps....but don't mistake him for a Sabermetric guy..


Thats fine - i think the idea of "not making outs" shouldnt be too much of a stretch for even the casual fan. i hope.



shoewizard wrote:
From what I understand, they were already planning on having OBP featured more often in 2007 broadcasts. It had something to do with where they were getting there stat graphics package from, and they SHOULD be able to show it more often in 2007.


Interesting. I hope they do. The more info, the better IMO - and im not just talking stats - scouting, stats, stories about players, its all good to me..
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
One key for everyone is going to have to be to focus on OBP with Young, as he is likely to still struggle with his batting average at times.

The average fan will not be as enamored with young until he goes 30-30, because they don't understand or appreciate OBP, thanks to the total neglect of this stat on Television and in the media.



i will look at in this order:
OPS
FIELD % (FLY BALLS CAUGHT)
RUNS PRODUCED
SB
HR
BA

did i miss any?
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can't foist OPS on an audience that doesn't even understand OBP

You have to get the audience familiar with OBP, simply by putting it on the screen every day for 162 days year in year out, and eventually, people will just "get it"

I see it on plenty of other teams broadcasts. They don't need to reinvent the wheel. They just simply need to show THIS each and every time a guy comes to bat.


Code:
 BA    HR      RBI     OBP
.287   18      78      .367
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
I see it on plenty of other teams broadcasts. They don't need to reinvent the wheel. They just simply need to show THIS each and every time a guy comes to bat.


Code:
 BA    HR      RBI     OBP
.287   18      78      .367


That would be an amazing development, a great leap forward, and one I also hope we'll see very soon for Diamondbacks broadcasts.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't know what to do with that.

Can't complain about that kind of review. I'd like to see the OBP higher for Young, though. Unfortunately, he won't be on the bases much to use that speed. I'm hopeful that he figures it out quickly cuz the casual fan will be screaming for Justin Upton after next year if Young is posting a .258 BA.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Which is precisely why you stick OBP up there all year.

Just like people have a "sense" for what is a good batting average because of years of exposures, it will take years of exposure for fans to understand what a good OBP is. But you have to start SOMEWHERE!!!

OBP is far more important than BA It just is. It's not opinion. It's fact.

And the sooner fans learn that, the better. The dumbing down of the fan base has GOT to stop.
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Projekt
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ Yep. It doesn't really matter how someone gets on base, but just that they get on base. I don't think OPS is that hard to understand. If anything, just put SLG next to OBP this year. If they are separated, it gives you even more information...
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TAP
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
You can't foist OPS on an audience that doesn't even understand OBP

You have to get the audience familiar with OBP, simply by putting it on the screen every day for 162 days year in year out, and eventually, people will just "get it"

I see it on plenty of other teams broadcasts. They don't need to reinvent the wheel. They just simply need to show THIS each and every time a guy comes to bat.


Code:
 BA    HR      RBI     OBP
.287   18      78      .367

Thanks to David B's post yesterday, we had two examples on the same Chad Moeller signing of sports journalists writing about a player's OPS. My only beef with both of these examples is that they speak of OPS in X number of At Bats (which excludes walks) rather than in X number of Plate Appearances, which is what OPS (or more specifically the OBP aspect of OPS) is based upon.

Rotoworld wrote:
Chad Moeller-C- Reds Nov. 27 - 5:56 pm et

Reds signed catcher Chad Moeller, who had been with the Brewers, to a one-year contract.

It really is a major league deal, which is just disgusting. Moeller had a 568 OPS in 317 at-bats in 2004, a 624 OPS in 199 at-bats in 1995 and a 506 OPS in 98 at-bats before the Brewers finally got fed up with him last season. By comparison, Jason LaRue finished at 663 in his disastrous 2006 season. Moeller is just an average defender, so there shouldn't be room for him on a major league roster. There are better catchers littering Triple-A rosters.

Ken Rosenthal wrote:
Dellucci, 33, spent last season as a part-time player after the Rangers traded him to the Phillies on April 1. He performed well in his limited role, however, hitting 13 homers and producing an .899 on-base/slugging percentage in 264 at-bats.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Am glad that shoewiz is finally on the Chris Young bandwagon. Last year at this time, he was ready to trade him to the Yankees for Jaret Wright... Wink
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
My only beef with both of these examples is that they speak of OPS in X number of At Bats (which excludes walks) rather than in X number of Plate Appearances, which is what OPS (or more specifically the OBP aspect of OPS) is based upon.


I guess it would be more correct to state it in number of plate appearances but remember that SLG is based on AB, not PA.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt wrote:
TAP wrote:
My only beef with both of these examples is that they speak of OPS in X number of At Bats (which excludes walks) rather than in X number of Plate Appearances, which is what OPS (or more specifically the OBP aspect of OPS) is based upon.

I guess it would be more correct to state it in number of plate appearances but remember that SLG is based on AB, not PA.

True enough. Guess that's one of the idiosyncrasies we end up with using hybrid stats.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Am glad that shoewiz is finally on the Chris Young bandwagon. Last year at this time, he was ready to trade him to the Yankees for Jaret Wright... Wink


Not quite the way I remember it. But then again, I'm usually drunk, so who knows. Laughing

I'm just still bummed out we missed out on Jason Johnson last year. You kept telling us he was the cats meow and the guy to go after......if we had signed him, who knows how 2006 might have turned out. Wink
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
Am glad that shoewiz is finally on the Chris Young bandwagon. Last year at this time, he was ready to trade him to the Yankees for Jaret Wright... Wink


Not quite the way I remember it. But then again, I'm usually drunk, so who knows. Laughing

I'm just still bummed out we missed out on Jason Johnson last year. You kept telling us he was the cats meow and the guy to go after......if we had signed him, who knows how 2006 might have turned out. Wink


My defense:

Two very smart GMs (Shapiro and Epstein) took a flier on JJohnson, like I would've. Obviously, you are a lot smarter than them... and it's never been a secret that you are much smarter than me Wink

EDIT: SMART ASS


Last edited by levski on Tue Nov 28, 2006 12:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obviously I am.....nice use of quote tags Rolling Eyes
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was being slightly sarcastic earlier about not knowing what to do with the OBP. A few of you have gotten on me about not valuing the OBP enough in some of these dialogues, but it's actually the opposite. I was always about who made the fewest outs, what happened in between the HR's, etc. But it was my buddies that were really good at baseball, and eventually wound up playing in the bigs, that said I didn't value BA enough. They said that it was all about RBI's, or at least RBI chances converted, and that sometimes just not making an out isn't good enough.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I first seen him April 2005 he really grabbed my attention for his CF play. He would take a look off the bat and use that quick first step to track down balls that should have been easy doubles/triples. Then his power, CY hit a ball to dead center which is 415 in Birmingham and the ball hit off the support platform for the sound system about 450'. But I was concerned with his K rate and his rather low BB rate. I was rather surprised when I seen him this year cut down his K rate by a large number and his BB's increased as well with out losing the power. He stopped swinging at 0-2, 1-2 junk balls (sliders 8 inches outside and eye high FB's) I am excited to see how this year is for him.
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Given the projections for Young and Quentin, and with Upton and CarGo in the minors, it would be ridiculous to sign Eric Byrnes to a multi-year deal. His replacement will be ready by next year, '09 at the latest, so we'll only need him for two years. It would be much easier/cheaper/better to sign a one-yr rental to play LF, let CY and Q develop, and bring up either Upton or CarGo for '08, or repeat and bring one of them up in '09. Either way, if we're committed to a low-payroll and youth development, signing EB to a multi-year deal doesn't fit. The onyl guy we should go that route with is Hudson because we don't ahve a propsect that plays that kind of D with a .290 avg. I thought $5M was a little big for our budget, but that seems to be barely reasonable, especially if we don't have another option. But we're stocked in OF'ers, or could pick up a cheap one on the rebound, just like we did with EB.
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