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8/25 LA @ AZ
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wedge
AA Prospect


Joined: 23 Aug 2006
Posts: 41

PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

to be fair, this game was waaaay more frustrating than the rockies game, lots of people aired their frustrations tonight.

EDIT: aaaaaand I push it to 21!
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well...i cannot believe i stayed up to watch that!! its after 3am here now....im going to bed now!


DBACKS WIN!!!
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

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Hank
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 347
Location: Phoenix

PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
McCray wrote:
oh, and is 20 pages a record for a gameday?

Blew away the old record of 13 pages. Over 500 posts on this game, compared to 311 for the 18 inning marathon in CO (which I'm also guilty of starting). Embarassed


Well, then, TAP, I guess that you can proudly proclaim that you give good thread.
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stu
Everyday Player


Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 536

PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just got back from the game. Good thing they won. That would have been a pisser to sit though that and have them lose.

Some very good D. The bunt by CQ was stupid. In addition to what has been said is that the Dodger were expecting it and playing in. Melvin still doesn't understand that your goal should be to do the opposite of what they are playing for, when the odds are about even with your two choices.

He did this with Drew's bunt. They were back. Drew bunted and got the error. These plays are not always going to work out but give yourself the best chance.

With if 3b and 1b charging on CQ's bunt the best you are going to is is to have the bases loaded one out and a pitcher (albeit Hernandez) batting. Stupid.

Finally, check out the Tracy bobblehead tommorrow. He is pulling off the ball, head looking up.


Last edited by stu on Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:19 am; edited 1 time in total
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matt
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

awesome win guys, I was able to see bits and pieces of the game. fp, you were perfect tonight. I just read all 21 pages all at once. Looking forward to seeing some of you guys tomorrow.
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stu
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Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And Hernandez was pinch hitting!!!. Take off 10% for that too bozo.

I know modern GMs want their manager to be a cipher, but can't we have one that at least knows how to count?
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 1:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hank wrote:
TAP wrote:
McCray wrote:
oh, and is 20 pages a record for a gameday?

Blew away the old record of 13 pages. Over 500 posts on this game, compared to 311 for the 18 inning marathon in CO (which I'm also guilty of starting). Embarassed


Well, then, TAP, I guess that you can proudly proclaim that you give good thread.

I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But this wasn't it.Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others.
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B. O. N. D.
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 2:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
I think this 'buster is a big bit too much... Shocked


But it worked!

Barely... Embarassed
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Listening to the post game last night, Melvin claimed to know that Estrada would be walked and he calculated he would rather have Livan hit with the bases loaded than risk Q or Estrada hitting into a double play.

I swear, you can't make this stuff up.


I know it was not Melvin's fault that they could not deliver the one hit to score a run until so late....(yeah Hudson)......

but Ya know....if a managers strong point is his even personality, and ability to communicate with players ...thats fine....it's a huge part of the job. But his in game "strategic thinking", (and it is about as generous as can be to even refer to it that way) is EXTREMELY poor. We see it over and over again. So he needs a bench coach to do that for him. He needs a better strategic mind sitting with him on the bench whisepering in his ear all the right moves.

I VOLUNTEER!!
Laughing
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Finally, check out the Tracy bobblehead tommorrow. He is pulling off the ball, head looking up.


LOL....Very fitting....it is the most indelible image we have of him.
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stu
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Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Melvin claimed to know that Estrada would be walked and he calculated he would rather have Livan hit with the bases loaded than risk Q or Estrada hitting into a double play.


Not much faith in CQ that he would get a hit. Also LH is not the swiftest runner in the world. Is Estrada that much more likely to hit into a dp? And isn't Estrada our "clutch hitter"?
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EvilJuan
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:

but Ya know....if a managers strong point is his even personality, and ability to communicate with players ...thats fine....it's a huge part of the job. But his in game "strategic thinking", (and it is about as generous as can be to even refer to it that way) is EXTREMELY poor. We see it over and over again. So he needs a bench coach to do that for him. He needs a better strategic mind sitting with him on the bench whisepering in his ear all the right moves.

I VOLUNTEER!!
Laughing


As soon as Levski becomes an assistant GM (a move I'm ok with), Shoewizard will become Melvin's bench coach (another move I'm ok with).

But, as one of the ancients taught, Holdeth not thy breath, for thou shalt surely turneth blue, and falleth over.

Twisted Evil
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm finishing up all the posts. I turned off the game at about the same time as Shoe....but I wasn't out of coupons.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Is Estrada that much more likely to hit into a dp?

Johnny's 12 GIDP's tie him for 2nd on AZ with Gonzo (CoJack is 1st at 14). I'm not so sure that Estrada is any faster than Livan and I'd say that if Johnny and Conor were to run a 90-foot windsprint against each other, Conor would win but not by much.

And even though Estrada is 6th on the DBacks with 10 HR's (many of which were memorable and leave us with the "clutch" impression), his GB/FB ratio of 0.93 means that when he makes contact he hits ground balls just about half the time with tortoise running speed.
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tmar
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Once Levski & Shoe take over in the office I want the vending contract.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tmar wrote:
Once Levski & Shoe take over in the office I want the vending contract.

...but no nachos! Wink
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tmar
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking more of getting employees that know how to move a tad faster than a snail with a boot. I bet they could increase sales by 20% if they "reorganized" the whole process to make it more efficient. I mean how many times have you decided not to get a hotdog or beer because the line was too long.
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stu
Everyday Player


Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 10:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estrada' g/f ratio makes him a flyball hitter. Anything under one would be flyball. Do they count hits as g/b or do they just count outs?

LH is 3.23 g/f so he is much more likely to hit a gb. LH's k/ab ratio is pretty good (97k/697ab, but his obp stinks (247 versus a 237 ba). Not much chance to get the run in by a walk.

GIDP is not an equal opportunity stat. While people minimalize rbi as not being equal opportunity they don't think of GIDP as discriminating. I agree Estarda is a prime dp candiate, but he has probably had more chances as he bats behind Gonzo and Jackson.

FWIW, LH has grounded in 24 dp's in 697 ab's. My guess is his ratio is worse than Estarda.

LH's stats
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I just looked up DP% at Baseball Prospectus, and to be fair, Estrada's is the highest on the team among players with 100 PA or more

Code:
#   NAME           TM  LG YR   DP  DP%   NETDP
1.  Johnny Estrada ARI NL 2006 14 17.9%  4.04
2.  Tony Clark     ARI NL 2006  5 17.9%  1.42
3.  Chad Tracy     ARI NL 2006 16 14.8%  2.21
4.  Luis Gonzalez  ARI NL 2006 14 14.6%  1.74
5.  Orlando Hudson ARI NL 2006 13 14.4%  1.50
6.  Shawn Green    ARI NL 2006 12 13.8%  0.89
7.  Jeff Davanon   ARI NL 2006  6 13.6%  0.38
8.  Conor Jackson  ARI NL 2006 14 13.6%  0.84
9.  Eric Byrnes    ARI NL 2006  8 12.1% -0.43
10. Chris Snyder   ARI NL 2006  3 12.0% -0.19
11. Damion Easley  ARI NL 2006  3 10.7% -0.58
12. Stephen Drew   ARI NL 2006  1  3.1% -3.09
13. Craig Counsell ARI NL 2006  1  2.9% -3.47


Notes

1.) Q's DP % is 15.0 but his Net DP is only 0.45
from BP Glossary. He has fewer than 100 PA though, so did not make the cutoff in my sort.

2.) DP% = The percent of the time the double play opportunities (DP_OPPS) were converted into double plays (DP)

3.) NETDP The number of additional double plays generated versus an average player with the same number of opportunities. Negative NET DP indicates that fewer double plays than average were produced.


4.) League context, Estrada ranks as the 69th worst among ML players with over 100 PA. The league leader is Julio Franco, 37.5%

If you move the PA minimum to 300, the worst 3 are all catchers,

Rony Paulino 25%
Brad Ausmus 23.8 %
Yadier Molina 23.3%

Estrada ranks 36th among players with 300 or more PA

5.) Livan has not hit into a DP this year. Last year his DP% was 20%, (hitting into 4 DP's)

6.) Good to see that Jackson, while hitting into alot of DP's, does not have that high a percentage......obviously he hits with men on first quite a bit.
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matt
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tmar wrote:
I was thinking more of getting employees that know how to move a tad faster than a snail with a boot. I bet they could increase sales by 20% if they "reorganized" the whole process to make it more efficient. I mean how many times have you decided not to get a hotdog or beer because the line was too long.


Or you could just hire really hot chicks to work there and dress them in something really hot
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stu
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Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those dp numbers from BP look like all dp's, not just GIDP. The 12 TAP used for GIDP is confirmed by espn

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4713

If you use GIDP you get about 15% for Estrada. I agree he is a prime dp candidate and that is something to teake into account, but I am not seeing LH as being that much better and maybe worse as he hits more gb's.

LH's GIDP this has to be a pretty small sample. His lifetime would be what to look at, but I don't know where to look.
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moviegeekjn
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Listening to the post game last night, Melvin claimed to know that Estrada would be walked and he calculated he would rather have Livan hit with the bases loaded than risk Q or Estrada hitting into a double play.

I swear, you can't make this stuff up.


That is un-fucking-believable! BoMel will have to continue worshipping O-Dawg for saving his sorry ass feeblemindedness.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 26, 2006 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Those dp numbers from BP look like all dp's, not just GIDP. The 12 TAP used for GIDP is confirmed by espn

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4713

If you use GIDP you get about 15% for Estrada. I agree he is a prime dp candidate and that is something to teake into account, but I am not seeing LH as being that much better and maybe worse as he hits more gb's.

LH's GIDP this has to be a pretty small sample. His lifetime would be what to look at, but I don't know where to look.


Good point....I forgot about Lineout DP's.

We are on the same page here....I just went to look up DP% after I saw your post.

Anyway.....bad move, we both agree.
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