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matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1653
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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 Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't know, maybe DaVannon will be this year's Tony Clark but I like him. He has good plate discipline, plays all three OF positions and would be the only OF that can bat LH. |
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Dangerfield
Everyday Player
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 627
Location: worm factory
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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he may also be our only lead off hitter, recon type guy.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it |
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matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1653
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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Let me guess, could be in for a huge season...  |
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rgndvo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 108
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Hes also the only OF we have that could call a .750 OPS season an okay year. |
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Dangerfield
Everyday Player
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 627
Location: worm factory
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| Let me guess, could be in for a huge season... |
You left out, what held him back last year, and where that guy is.
400 obp, and a 85-1.0 bb/k ratio, is his job.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3015
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:02 pm Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
| Probably a dumb question, but how is "70% accurate" defined? If i am forecasting a player to have an 800 OPS, and i am "70% accurate" i am also 30% inaccurate (240 OPS points either way)... |
See post # 8 of This Thread
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qudjy1
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1068
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| Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:28 am Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| qudjy1 wrote: |
| Probably a dumb question, but how is "70% accurate" defined? If i am forecasting a player to have an 800 OPS, and i am "70% accurate" i am also 30% inaccurate (240 OPS points either way)... |
See post # 8 of This Thread
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Ah.... Ok...
I guess my initiial feeling is surprise at how low all of the R2 values are for all of the projection systems. My initial (uninformed) guess is that the real cause of the variance are the young players who are outlyers (uggla, ramirez) who come from no where - and have little historical data to use as guidelines for prediction (sample size)... in other words - much of AZs team is made up of guys who could be outliers... i dont feel comfortable with saying i am confident in those predictions...
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3015
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:32 am Post subject: |
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This Dave Studeman Article was aleady linked on primer. It's a good read.
I found this part interesting as it related to projections:
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| Take any league in modern baseball history and multiply its On-Base Percentage by its total bases. Know what you'll usually get? A number that is very, very close to the total number of runs scored in that league. I mean, how amazing is that? |
| Code: |
League Year OBP TB OBP*TB Runs Diff %Diff
NL 1968 .300 18,737 5621 5577 44 1%
NL 1954 .335 17,106 5731 5624 107 2%
NL 1925 .348 17,751 6177 6195 -18 0%
AL 1997 .340 33,495 11388 11164 224 2%
AL 1977 .330 31,307 10331 10247 84 1%
AL 1959 .323 16,118 5206 5391 -185 -3% |
In my own projections, I had a team OBP of .336 and a team total bases count of 2388. That comes out to 802 Runs using the OBP*TB
Using my own methods for estimating runs off of the components I had come up with 790 runs. Nice to know that I was pretty close to a more established method, (which I was unaware of) . I think this would work better on a team or league basis then it would on an individual basis.
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TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2238
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:43 am Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
This Dave Studeman Article was aleady linked on primer. It's a good read.
I found this part interesting as it related to projections:
| Quote: |
| Take any league in modern baseball history and multiply its On-Base Percentage by its total bases. Know what you'll usually get? A number that is very, very close to the total number of runs scored in that league. I mean, how amazing is that? |
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Very cool!
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Dangerfield
Everyday Player
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 627
Location: worm factory
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| Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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Hippasus, some will say more Asus, is whoI feel like, when I talk about synergy, and intangibles. Synergy = pi, intangibles= irrational...
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it |
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Dylan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 232
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| Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Hippasus, some will say more Asus, is whoI feel like, when I talk about synergy, and intangibles. Synergy = pi, intangibles= irrational... |
I believe the person you are looking for is Ned Ludd 
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EvilJuan
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1746
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Dylan wrote: |
| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Hippasus, some will say more Asus, is whoI feel like, when I talk about synergy, and intangibles. Synergy = pi, intangibles= irrational... |
I believe the person you are looking for is Ned Ludd
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Ned Ludd and the Sabot-Throwers...
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Is It Next Season Yet? 
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foulpole
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1302
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| Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Four teams that could surprise in '07 |
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Diamondbacks
2006 record: 76-86.
Key player: Randy Johnson.
There is a lot not to like about the Diamondbacks, who lack a proven leadoff man, proficient cleanup hitter and veteran clubhouse presence. The team's most experienced position player, left fielder Eric Byrnes, has only five years of major-league service. It is quite possible that the D-Backs will be just too young.
Here's the thing, though: The Arizona kids are among the game's most talented, and the starting rotation, led by NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, is not only experienced, but also accomplished. Johnson, right-hander Livan Hernandez and lefty Doug Davis alone should make the team more competitive.
The D-Backs ranked seventh in the league in runs last season. Outfielders Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green are gone, but club officials believe the offense will be just as productive with center fielder Chris Young and right fielder Carlos Quentin becoming regulars and Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero replacing Johnny Estrada at catcher.
Young, Quentin and Byrnes will significantly improve the outfield defense. Shortstop Stephen Drew and second baseman Orlando Hudson are strong two-way players. If third baseman Chad Tracy rebounds from a disappointing '06, the lineup might truly click.
Late-inning relief is a question; the trade of right-hander Luis Vizcaino creates a void in the setup role, and Jose Valverde is hardly a sure thing as the closer. Tony Pena must prove a viable successor to Vizcaino and ideally, a possible successor to Valverde. But the Diamondbacks should have enough arms — including several young arms — to sort it all out.
On paper, the Dodgers and Padres are the best of the NL West, but they're not nearly as dominant as the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East. The D-Backs could leap forward if two or more of their young position players emerge as potential stars — and if Johnson can revive himself in his return to the NL. |
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6401254
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daddy d
Draft Pick
Joined: 28 Jan 2007
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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I've been just sitting back and reading the post sence I joined. The people on this board have more savey and baseball sence than any other boards that I've visited. (past and present). Shoe this is to you. If your projections are close I also will buy you a beer and pretzels, and on top of that I'll make the same donation, of $100.00 to the childerns hospital. Not only that but Doug will have another year like 2004 or better. YES I'm boasting, but I have faith in Doug. The one thing that Doug did not get from me was the ability to swing the bat, or should I say make contact.
GO DBACKS[/b] |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3015
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2007 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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Really glad you are enjoying the board. My friends here are some pretty smart guys....I've learned alot from them.
Got a chuckle from the comment on Doug's hitting. 
BTW, a 4.46 ERA in Chase Field is the equivalent of about a 4.20 in Milwaukee. But if Doug does even better and pitches as well as he did in 2004 and everyone else is healthy, we'll be drinking that beer at a playoff game!! |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1618
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| Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2007 6:02 am Post subject: |
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blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children...
shoewiz is this board's little engine that could; keep it up...
sincerely,
your soon-to-be daddy |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3015
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2007 7:25 am Post subject: |
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| levski wrote: |
blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children...
shoewiz is this board's little engine that could; keep it up...
sincerely,
your soon-to-be daddy |
What a nice thing to say.....thank you.
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1618
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| Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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don't mention it, shoewiz...
i wish i could be posting more, but then again, i've been extremely busy lately. work and all that stuff. plus a family to boot...
and anyhow, my posts aren't needed here, since shoewiz and co. are doing such a nice job posting such cogent arguments here...
one can only spend so much time writing "i agree" before getting bored... |
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David B
Everyday Player
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 574
Location: Out of the playoffs for the 24th straight season
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| Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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| I agree (yawn!) |
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foulpole
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1302
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| Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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Sporting News NL rankings...
OF
| Quote: |
14. Diamondbacks
LF Eric Byrnes, CF Chris Young, RF Carlos Quentin. Reserves: Jeff DaVanon, Scott Hairston.
Byrnes succeeds Luis Gonzalez in left. Young and Quentin have big-time potential but must blossom quickly. |
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=175415
Bullpen
| Quote: |
13. Diamondbacks
RHP Jose Valverde, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Tony Pena, RHP Jorge Julio, LHP Doug Slaten
There is a lot of power here. Valverde is expected to start out as the closer, but he has been inconsistent the past two years and could be supplanted by Pena. |
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=169240
Catchers
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10. Diamondbacks
Chris Snyder, Miguel Montero
Snyder and Montero could begin the season in a platoon. Both work hard and communicate well with pitchers. Third-stringer Robby Hammock is a solid utility player. |
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=171217
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dbackfanron
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 28 Oct 2006
Posts: 12
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| Posted: Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:54 pm Post subject: |
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| I think our outfield is top 5 not 14. The only possible way to rank us 14 is if your not considering defense and even then I think we rank higher. |
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tmar
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1124
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| Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 7:56 am Post subject: |
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Where'd they get the data to support their decision about how good each team is? Name recognition?
Zips has the D-Back outfield starting 3 averaging an OPS of .826 with SD & LA averaging .788 & .768 respectively, yet they're ranked above us?
My guess is they weren't sitting down when they pulled their information out. |
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