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Win Shares and the Hall of Fame – 2007 Update

 
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TAP
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2274
Location: Gold Canyon

PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 2:12 am    Post subject: Win Shares and the Hall of Fame – 2007 Update Reply with quote

Interesting article from Bill Gilbert. Some Diamondbacks highlights...

Randy Johnson
8 Win Shares in 2006
305 career Win Shares through 2006
HOF comment:"Another sure bet despite recent decline."

Luis Gonzalez
12 Win Shares in 2006
297 career Win Shares through 2006
HOF comment: "Doesn't have the numbers."

Steve Finley
10 Win Shares in 2006
296 career Win Shares through 2006
HOF comment: "Same category as Gonzalez."

Curt Schilling
15 Win Shares in 2006
242 career Win Shares through 2006
HOF comment: "Post-season success will help his case."

Shawn Green
11 Win Shares in 2006
225 career Win Shares through 2006
HOF comment: "Not a serious candidate."

Reggie Sanders
5 Win Shares in 2006
206 career Win Shares through 2006
HOF comment: "Many stops but not Cooperstown."
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tmar
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know much about win shares but it seems to value pitching quality far less than position players. Is this because SP only pitch once every 5th day?

For example Finley's gets 10 win shares for an OPS that would be the lowest in the NLW <according to ZIPS> in 07 and Schilling gets 15 for pitching a 3.97 ERA in the ALE with a K9 of over 8 and only 28 walks.

If win shares are a measure of value, I'd have a hard time buying into the concept that Finley was worth 2/3 of Schilling or more than RJ in 06 for that matter.
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tmar
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To answer my own question I look win shares up in wikipedia and found the following:

Quote:
For pitchers, Win Shares levels are typically lower--in fact, they often come close to mirroring actual wins.


FWIW here's how they listed position players:

Quote:
In Major League Baseball, based on a 162-game schedule, a typical all-star might amass 20 win shares in a season. More than 30 win shares (i.e. the player is directly responsible for 10 wins by his team) is indicative of MVP-level performance, and 40+ win shares represents an exceptional, historic season
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Zephon
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RJ is a sure thing HOF canidate, no doubt. 4 CY Youngs, Perfect Game, World Series winner, World Series MVP, a no hitter, a 20 strike out game, a Pitching Triple Crown. More strikeouts than any other left hander in history. future 300 game winner. That's one hell of a resume.
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matt
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil

PostPosted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Albert Pujols 26 37 210 On pace for 525 WS in 15 year career.

He will beat Gonzo before he reaches 30.
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