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Dangerfield
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 Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:37 am Post subject: stolen bases next year |
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Byrnes, Drew, and Young can steal 32, yes 32 sb's each next year, and Cq can steal 20, we will have the highest scoring team in the nl next year. Whitey Herzog will then be interviewed, and explain why running opens up the offense, and why he picks the Diamondbacks to win the West, in August over the Rockies.
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:55 am Post subject: |
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that is alot of robbing...
and i would love to see it! i wonder if the manager/coaches would be so inclined to have the green light on so often
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:57 am Post subject: |
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I find it somewhat far-fetched...
But i like it too... i like that style of play - similar to what brenly used to do to maddox... Hudson could be a better base stealer too... he is fast enough IMO...
That being said - not sure that fits our park - im not sure you want to be running into outs in a hitters park... |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:07 am Post subject: |
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I would be EXTRMELY surprised if Byrnes, Drew and Young even attempted 96 steals in total, let alone had that many successes.
Likewise, I can't see Carlos Quentin even attempting 20 steals. Quentin attempted 27 steals in 346 minor league games. |
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:07 am Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
I find it somewhat far-fetched...
But i like it too... i like that style of play - similar to what brenly used to do to maddox... Hudson could be a better base stealer too... he is fast enough IMO...
That being said - not sure that fits our park - im not sure you want to be running into outs in a hitters park... |
agree, but with the gaps even my slow ass can score from 2nd!
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levski
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| nineteen diggity hundred and seventy diggity five steals, baby! count it! |
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
I would be EXTRMELY surprised if Byrnes, Drew and Young even attempted 96 steals in total, let alone had that many successes.
Likewise, I can't see Carlos Quentin even attempting 20 steals. Quentin attempted 27 steals in 346 minor league games. |
I'm running everybody this year. Cq's going to steal 20, because pitcher's are going to concentrating on getting Tracy out, with breaking balls. Did you forget Tracy's hitting behind, Quentin? Now, I see your point, Conor standing on second, might be blocking CQ too much.
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dirtygary
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:45 am Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
| That being said - not sure that fits our park - im not sure you want to be running into outs in a hitters park... |
I'd agree with you on that, except that's not going to be our style - a bloop and a blast. We need to put the ball in play and get around the bases. I like SB's cuz they're fun, and I think you gotta do it just enough so the other team has to pay attention to it.
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| I'd agree with you on that, except that's not going to be our style - a bloop and a blast. |
The change isn't going to be easy. I expect two factions, on this. Joe Morgan Whitey Herzog, and I. Everyone else. We will run, We will win. Will be this year's chant, and mantra.
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levski
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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| dirtygary wrote: |
| We need to put the ball in play and get around the bases. |
As opposed to striking out looking and getting picked off at 1b?
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Dylan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:33 pm Post subject: |
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Dangerfield, please read and learn. Man, I can't keep teaching you about this game. You're gonna have to pick it up on your own sooner or later. This is exahusting.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/whitey-ball/ |
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stu
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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From my Bill James 2007 handbook, Jackson was doubled off 5 times last year which looks like it lead the league, tied with Weeks. Sizemore and Ichiro! lead the AL with 6.
Byrnes was not thrown at all trying to adance and was not double up. Despite all the comments about Byrnes being reckless on the bases, he was pretty good base runner last year.
I think part of byrnes' success last year was the steal was unexpected and picking his spots. If he runs 40 times, my guess is that he will not have the same success rate. |
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Dangerfield, please read and learn. Man, I can't keep teaching you about this game. You're gonna have to pick it up on your own sooner or later. This is exahusting |
Dylan, I get it. I understand the position. I just disagree with it. I talk about what I'm calling the Rudi Law Law. I disagree with a lot of the premises, of What Perry is basing his assumptions on, too.
Of course Obp, plain old fashioned hitting was the prime mover. But my premise is, pitchers start pitching differently, defenses start playing differently, when the sb starts. .
OBP is the prime mover of everything on offense. From there if you get runners in motion, well Whitey ball happens.
There's a lot of great pitchers, who don't make it btw, because rob's drive them batty/or can't hold runners on. Miggy would be a number 1, if he could pitch with robs.
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moviegeekjn
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
The change isn't going to be easy. I expect two factions, on this. Joe Morgan Whitey Herzog, and I. Everyone else. We will run, We will win. Will be this year's chant, and mantra. |
Whitey has some good books out there (You're Missin' a Great Game is excellent) that goes into his "philosophy"-- "Whiteyball" was based much more on his team's personnel than any penchant he might've had for running. He actually would have preferred relying on more power, but his Cardinals teams of the 80s weren't designed for it nor was the ballpark at that time.
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Dylan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Dangerfield, please read and learn. Man, I can't keep teaching you about this game. You're gonna have to pick it up on your own sooner or later. This is exahusting |
There's a lot of great pitchers, who don't make it btw, because rob's drive them batty/or can't hold runners on. Miggy would be a number 1, if he could pitch with robs.
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I assume you meant runners on 1B with you say robs, cause that's where the vast majority of SB come from. I know all runners on 1B aren't SB threats, but in his career Miggy has given up a line of .270/.347/.411/.758 with no runners on and a line of .264/.332/.390/.722 with a runner on 1B. Especially note the lower ISO with a runner on 1B. Maybe Miggy didn't face many fastball hitters, right?
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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| moviegeekjn wrote: |
| Dangerfield wrote: |
The change isn't going to be easy. I expect two factions, on this. Joe Morgan Whitey Herzog, and I. Everyone else. We will run, We will win. Will be this year's chant, and mantra. |
Whitey has some good books out there (You're Missin' a Great Game is excellent) that goes into his "philosophy"-- "Whiteyball" was based much more on his team's personnel than any penchant he might've had for running. He actually would have preferred relying on more power, but his Cardinals teams of the 80s weren't designed for it nor was the ballpark at that time.
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Like his Royal teams. All those guys ran too.
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Dylan wrote: |
| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Dangerfield, please read and learn. Man, I can't keep teaching you about this game. You're gonna have to pick it up on your own sooner or later. This is exahusting |
There's a lot of great pitchers, who don't make it btw, because rob's drive them batty/or can't hold runners on. Miggy would be a number 1, if he could pitch with robs.
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I assume you meant runners on 1B with you say robs, cause that's where the vast majority of SB come from. I know all runners on 1B aren't SB threats, but in his career Miggy has given up a line of .270/.347/.411/.758 with no runners on and a line of .264/.332/.390/.722 with a runner on 1B. Especially note the lower ISO with a runner on 1B. Maybe Miggy didn't face many fastball hitters, right?
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The point is, there are variables to the running game. SB's are an art, its not easy to run on certain pitcher/catchers, but show me a team that runs successfully, smart, and there will be a definite correlation to a good offense, and the way it changes the pitchers rhythms and concentration.
My philosphy would be to run every chance against a good pitcher that doesn't give up runs, if Drew/Byrnes feel they can get to second..
Get'em on, get'em over, get'em in. Now, if you don't have guys who can steal on the team, then yes of course running into outs is dumb, but you're going to tell me, you have Dave Roberts, Rickey Henderson, Coleman, you're not running?
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stu
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:35 pm Post subject: |
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On Rudy Law and Carlton Fiske, it looks like they played together for 4 years. Fiske's numbers for those years were
267/336/403
289/355/518
231/289/468
238/320/488
Fiske's lifetime numbers were 269/341/457 so of the 4 years, he was better one year, worse two years and about the same one year than his lifetime record. |
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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Like I said, it's me ,Whitey, and Joe Morgan.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=fiskca01&year=1983
Year 1983, hit behind Law, who was phenomenal that year at sb. look at Fisk ops with runner on first.
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Dylan
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
Like I said, it's me ,Whitey, and Joe Morgan.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=fiskca01&year=1983
Year 1983, hit behind Law, who was phenomenal that year at sb. look at Fisk ops with runner on first. |
So as long as he put the bat on the ball before Rudi stole the base he was a monster, but the moment Rudi took 2B he turned into a pumpkin (.728 OPS)?
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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I'd tell you the answer, but I think you should ask LaRussa, if he'd return your call.
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stu
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:58 pm Post subject: |
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And the next year Fisk hit 216/293/311. And remember all averages go up with a man on first so having anyone of first is goping to increase a player's numbers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=fiskca01&year=1984
The numbers also say a disriptive runner casues the averages to go down. But why look at facts when you can cherry pick anecdotes? |
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levski
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: |
And the next year Fisk hit 216/293/311. And remember all averages go up with a man on first so having anyone of first is goping to increase a player's numbers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=fiskca01&year=1984
The numbers also say a disriptive runner casues the averages to go down. But why look at facts when you can cherry pick anecdotes? |
why dazzle with brilliance when you can baffle with bullshit?
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: |
And the next year Fisk hit 216/293/311. And remember all averages go up with a man on first so having anyone of first is goping to increase a player's numbers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=fiskca01&year=1984
The numbers also say a disriptive runner casues the averages to go down. But why look at facts when you can cherry pick anecdotes? |
You do realize, Law stunk in 84.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=lawru01&year=1983
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=lawru01&year=1984
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=colemvi01&year=1987
http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/smithoz01.shtml
I keep can dazzling with more BS....
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