Diamondbacks Bullpen

rgndvo · MLB Rookie Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 117

Average number of wins in 250 simulated seasons. I have a lot of assumptions and there were about 15 games out of 2430 that didnt converge so I guessed at the outcome.

NYY 93.6
BOS 87.2
TOR 80.7
TMB 77.5
BAL 77.1

MIN 90.1
CLE 89.2
DET 88.3
CHW 67.9
KNC 64.0

LAA 85.5
OAK 83.8
SEA 83.4
TEX 67.8

NYM 89.0
FLA 87.4
ATL 81.6
WAS 80.9
PHI 76.0

STL 86.6
CHC 83.9
HOU 81.8
MIL 80.1
PIT 77.7
CIN 71.8

SND 98.3
SNF 83.9
ARI 81.5
LAD 81.1
COL 52.3

Arizona max: 102 wins
Arizona min: 64 wins
% above .500: 45.6

nystro · A-Ball Kid Joined: 05 Oct 2006 Posts: 22 Location: Tempe

COL 52.3

Only 52 wins for the Rockies? The least wins of any team in MLB?

WAS 80.9

The Nationals will be .500???

misterx · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:58 am Post subject:

the giants ahead of us
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its all fun and games untill some loses an eye then its fun we cant see

David B · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:25 am Post subject:

To continue....the Padres with 98 wins (the most in all baseball)? The Cubs with 84? The White Sox with 68?

Something just isn't right here.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1137

No love for Philly either. I was looking over their team the other day and thought they had a pretty respectable squad.

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:19 am Post subject:

These are Pecota based. That means they are based on the Pecota average mean. But if you look at Pecota projections, they also have listed at the bottom, Breakout , improve, collapse, and attrition rates.

The Breakout and Improve rates for all the D Backs position players are much higher than the Giants, and the collapse and attrition rates are much lower than the Giants.

This goes to what I said in the projections thread when evaluating my own projections. There is no objective system of projections that will spit out GREAT , or BREAKOUT numbers for the D backs position players, but I am completely convinced that SOMEBODY is going to breakout.

The Breakout rates are mostly in the range of 25-35%.....out of 9 players I am looking at. (Surprisingly, Quentin has a lower breakout rate than Byrnes though.) That means it's a very good bet that at least 2 or 3 of them will break out , and reach the upper end of their projections, for example the 20 or 30 percentile.

Meanwhile the "breakout rate" of most of the Giants starters are in single digits or low teens. and it is very very like that you will see at least a couple of the Giants aging veterans "collapse".....but for now, the weighted average projection is still going to show those guys putting up good numbers based on their past histories.

History being the operative word here. Wink

rgndvo · MLB Rookie Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 117

Colorado seems a little low. Washington a little high... The pads may be high but I have no problem with the predicted order in the west. I was a little suprised at philly. The cubs not so much... The white sox (as well as the blue jays) seemed to be a decent bit under what Id predict but that was true last year as well... I dont think pecota likes those two teams.

Either way, still some tweaks to go but this was what popped out of the computer about 10 minutes before bedtime so I figured Id post it. Id also repeat that there are a lot of assumptions in here and still a lot of players that havent signed.

As for breakout/attrition/etc rates, I agree, these should be noted. I would also say though that when chris young is predicted to have 25 hr and 20 sb.. on top of a .904 OPS, thats probably erring on the side of breakout right there.

rgndvo · MLB Rookie Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 117

Revisited and rerun. I found a serious error that doesnt make a huge difference. This is the average predicted record, compared to the pythagorean record I would guess using just pecotas projections. the biggest differences are bolded

NY Yankees - 94-68 (98-64)
Boston - 90-72 (91-71)
Toronto - 81-81 (90-72)
Tampa Bay - 78-84 (76-86)
Baltimore - 76-86 (78-84)

Minnesota - 90-72 (95-67)
Detroit - 89-73 (85-77)
Cleveland - 89-73 (86-76)
Chicago Sox - 67-95 (80-82)
Kansas City - 64-98 (64-98 )

LA Angels - 86-76 (88-74)
Oakland - 84-78 (80-82)
Seattle - 83-79 (76-86)
Texas - 67-95 (82-80)

NY Mets - 88-74 (89-73)
Florida - 87-75 (84-78 )
Atlanta - 82-80 (86-76)
Washington - 81-81 (79-83)
Philadelphia - 76-86 (83-79)

St. Louis - 87-75 (86-76)
Chicago Cubs - 84-78 (86-76)
Houston - 82-80 (81-81)
Milwaukee - 79-83 (78-84)
Pittsburgh - 77-85 (74-88 )
Cincinnati - 72-90 (77-85)

San Diego - 98-64 (87-75)
San Francisco - 84-78 (79-83)
Arizona - 81-81 (82-80)
LA Dodgers - 81-81 (81-81)
Colorado - 51-111 (74-88 )

Particularly its odd that colorado and san diego are so far off from what youd expect and what would be predicted pythagoreastically.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1137

SD 14 games better than LA? That's a huge difference.

csktech · Posted: Sun Jan 28, 2007 10:16 pm Post subject:

Better get that software debugged. No way Gnats are running in second place this year. If Bobo goes down they have no offense at all. Plus add in the fact that they actually raised the average age from last year and they will be lucky to get 4th place if not habitating the celler from the ASB on.

Dbacks just even... No Way, well there is a way but only if Randy falls apart from start number one...

We shall see,
Kyle
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