| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Brandon Medders Up or Down 4.05 FIP |
| FIP will go Up |
|
35% |
[ 7 ] |
| FIP will go Down |
|
65% |
[ 13 ] |
|
| Total Votes : 20 |
|
| Author |
Message |
shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
|
 Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:52 pm Post subject: Brandon Medders Up or Down 4.05 FIP |
 |
|
For relievers I am using FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching
This is because for relievers, ERA is just not a good metric to judge how well they pitched. With FIP, which is based on Components and peripherals, we get a better picture.
From the THT Glossary:
| Quote: |
| Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger. |
I am using FIP numbers from FAN GRAPHS site which differ slightly from THT numbers however. That is because I can get season totals for guys that split their season between two teams, which I can't get from THT
As for Mr. Medders:
I was a little surprised to see his FIP as high as 4.05
This was due mostly to his sharp drop in K/9 (9.2 in 05, 5.9 in 06)
His FIP in 2005 was 3.2 and his career FIP is 3.8
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2404
Location: Gold Canyon
|
| Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
In the AL East or the NL West?  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:55 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Well...obviously in the NL West for now.
I figured he was rather topical, and a discussion of Medders would be a good thing right now, all things considered. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 9:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
I voted that Medders FIP will go UP in 2007....he will be LESS effective.
His sharp drop in K rate, and also a drop in his groundball rate are bad signs for a guy that was dealing with shoulder soreness towards the end of the season.
I think he struggles in 2007.
Good time to sell high. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Tucson DBacks Fan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 208
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 9:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
I don't have a problem with the Diamondbacks trading Medders, especially if it helps them financially to swing the deal. Assuming the deal for Randy is completed, I hope the Diamondbacks will still be able to replenish and strengthen their bullpen before the season starts. I wonder if they'll be spending to the max to land Randy?  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1763
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
I really have no qualms about trading Medders.
I figure Owings could replace him next year, if needed, and be as effective, if not more. Plus, our pen will be quite crowded next year as well. I count
Valverde
Cruz
Julio
Vizcaino
Medders
Lyon
Pena
Slaten
Enrique |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dangerfield
Everyday Player
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 666
Location: worm factory
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
| shoewizard wrote: |
I voted that Medders FIP will go UP in 2007....he will be LESS effective.
His sharp drop in K rate, and also a drop in his groundball rate are bad signs for a guy that was dealing with shoulder soreness towards the end of the season.
I think he struggles in 2007.
Good time to sell high. |
No way. meddars has been one of best surprises. He's consistently been good, in all situations, he's performed. Meddars is the definition of moxie. He doesn't have a plus fastball, but commands it. He doesn't have a plus curve, but commands it. Hasn't used the change enough because he doesn't command it, or can't believe it misses bats. but it maybe his only plus pitch, and if he does, start, to command it, then we have a closer. Meddars, is the definition of deception.
Shocked Cashmen would bring up his name, because no one talks about him. go through his game logs, and you'll see a pretty nice pattern. Also, remember, he's been blown out the last couple of years, on use, but its also brought him to the forefront. so now in conclusion, Meddars is someone who fits the mold of someone you don't trade, precisely because he's made it this far on deception and command alone. If he's not used 20 times a month, fips go way down.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Fair enough....glad to hear the other view. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2404
Location: Gold Canyon
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I voted up based on the increasing likelihood that Medders will be pitching out of the much tougher AL East. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
McCray
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
|
| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
i vote up. between the shoulder and the lack of any really impressive pitch, i think he's gonna have a rough year.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 9:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Just bumping this....only 9 votes?? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2404
Location: Gold Canyon
|
| Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 10:43 am Post subject: |
|
|
| shoewizard wrote: |
| Just bumping this....only 9 votes?? |
The Big Unit casts quite a shadow on the board. 
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| bumping one more time....still only 12 votes. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2404
Location: Gold Canyon
|
| Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I voted up previously when it appeared he'd be wearing NY on his cap, and I'm now pleasantly surprised to see he'll still be in AZ. My vote's still up though IMO he'll be more effective here in '07 than he would have been in the AL East. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1748
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
|
| Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I voted earlier but I can't remember what I voted. I say down now. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
foulpole
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1358
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:58 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I voted lower. With our top 4 starters potential to go 800+ IP, I feel that our entire pen will be well rested ( and maybe even a little bored ). |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
foulpole
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1358
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| matt wrote: |
| I voted earlier but I can't remember what I voted. I say down now. |
I waited to chime in on this one until the dust settled on the RJ trade.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1748
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:20 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| foulpole wrote: |
| I voted lower. With our top 4 starters potential to go 800+ IP, I feel that our entire pen will be well rested ( and maybe even a little bored ). |
Webb, Livan, Davis, and ??? RJ won't get enough starts to throw 200 so you must be talking about Edgar?
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
foulpole
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1358
|
| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| matt wrote: |
| Webb, Livan, Davis, and ??? RJ won't get enough starts to throw 200 so you must be talking about Edgar? |
I'm not convinced that RJ is going to miss a full month and when all four are combined I do feel that 800+ IP is reasonable.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
