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Bob A
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 229
Location: Tucson
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 Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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| If they want Cruz or Julio or Brynes---go for it. No way we should part with Connor Jackson or Chad Tracy to get Randy back. |
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coolwater
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 19 Nov 2006
Posts: 15
Location: Seoul, Korea
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Bob A wrote: |
| If they want Cruz or Julio or Brynes---go for it. No way we should part with Connor Jackson or Chad Tracy to get Randy back. |
Totally agree!!!
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Hope is good thing, Maybe the best of things
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B. O. N. D.
Everyday Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 893
Location: San Francisco, California
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| levski wrote: |
| Since Carroll is predicting it, it won't happen... but let's throw out some 3 way deals that involve BIG names. Anyone? |
Involving AZ or not? If not...
Let's see... what BIG names are left to speculate about? Trade-wise, not FA.
1. Manny Ramirez (Hey, it happens every year at this time)
2. Dontrelle Willis (Who's a baaaaad boy?)
3. Melky is still up in the air (Not a "big" as in "established" name)
4. Todd Helton (The rumors keep coming back)
5. Scott Linnebrink (or however you spell it. He seems to crop up in every Padres trade scenario. Must feel good.)
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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I've been scratching my head and I can't find THREE BIG players who could be moved at the same time. Carroll is full of shit again...
Speaking of BPro, Nate Silver just ran some analysis on RJ's 2006 season
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=119
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Big Unit a Big Bargain
by Nate Silver
Merry Christmas, everyone.
The prevailing reaction to the news that Randy Johnson is on the trading block is indifference: many Yankee fans treat him as though he’s nothing more than a fourth starter. And maybe that’s understandable; Johnson’s tenure in the Big Apple never did get off to the best start.
But the key thing to notice is that Johnson’ ERA in 2006 was not an accurate reflection of his pitching ability; his peripherals translate to an ERA much closer to 4.00 than the 5.00 he posted. The reason for the disparity is that Johnson pitched very poorly with runners on base, yielding an ugly .321/.363/.564 line as compared to .206/.271/.324 with the bases empty.
Now, those sorts of splits aren’t always about luck. There could be something about pitching out of the stretch that is driving that discrepancy, perhaps something related to Johnson’s balky back or his heavy use of his slider. But let’s take a deeper look at the numbers:
* Johnson struck out 20.6% of batters with the bases empty, and 19.8% with someone on base. Not much difference there.
* He yielded an unintentional walk to 7.1% of batters with the bases empty, and 9.9% with the bases occupied. That difference is a little more substantial, but it’s also a natural adaptation that a lot of veteran pitchers like Tom Glavine make: there’s more incentive to challenge a hitter when there’s nobody on base, leading to comparatively lower walk rates.
* Johnson’s BABIP with the bases empty was .239. With runners on, it was .369. This is almost certainly a matter of luck.
* So perhaps the big difference is that Johnson was getting hit up for extra bases more often with runners on base? Well, this is true: his home run rate was nearly twice as high with runners on (4.6%) than with the bases empty (2.5%). But the funny thing is that Johnson was actually doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground with runners on. His groundout-to-airout ratio was 1.09 in those situatuons, as opposed to 0.78 with the bases empty. In other words, more bad luck.
I’ve got news for you: the Yankees might not be trading their #4; they might be trading their #1. Johnson’s ERA PECOTAs out at 3.52, which is the best in the Yankee rotation by some margin. You can take that PECOTA with a certain grain of salt because it’s so hard to find appropriate comparables for Johnson, although the names that PECOTA does come up with — Roger Clemens foremost amongst them — are a reminder that you shouldn’t bet against a great pitcher until you absolutely have to.
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:02 pm Post subject: |
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more from mlb.com
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061225&content_id=1767666&vkey=hotstove2006&fext=.jsp
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PHOENIX -- The D-backs spoke over the past week with the Yankees about a deal that would have brought left-handed pitcher Randy Johnson back to the desert, but the two sides have struggled to reach an agreement on the players Arizona would send to New York.
"[Arizona GM Josh Byrnes] has had significant talks with the Yankees, but we have not been able to make a match at this point," D-backs team president Derrick Hall said.
The Yankees apparently have interest in some of Arizona's young starting pitchers as well as a reliever. The D-backs have been reluctant to part with their younger pitchers this offseason despite being approached by several clubs about them during and after the Winter Meetings. |
So, a reliever and some pitching prospects? That's sort of what I figured
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Tucson DBacks Fan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 208
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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| I think the teams could find a match, and I think the Diamondbacks could spare a reliever and some pitching prospects. I don't know if the deal will happen, but I didn't see a quote from Hall that the deal was dead in the water. |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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from the NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/26/sports/baseball/26yankees.html
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The Yankees now appear open to the idea of trading Johnson, perhaps to the Arizona Diamondbacks, for whom Johnson pitched for six seasons. He won four Cy Young awards for them, and a World Series in 2001.
The Yankees have also spoken to the San Diego Padres and a third team, believed to be the San Francisco Giants, according to a baseball executive who was granted anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about a possible deal. It is not known which players the Yankees may be hoping to acquire for Johnson, but their priority may be to simply unload all — or a large part — of Johnson’s $16 million salary for 2007, the final year of his contract.
A Johnson trade, if it happened quickly enough, would allow the Yankees to enter the competition for the prized free-agent starter Barry Zito, another left-hander who, except for his Cy Young season of 2002, has never enjoyed the same success as Johnson, but who at 28 is 15 years younger than Johnson and considerably healthier. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3282
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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told ya
I can see Sabean or Towers or Colletti much more willing than Josh to overpay for RJ |
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Tucson DBacks Fan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 208
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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I think this bidding war among NL West foes is a brilliant move by Cashman. He will get a good return for Johnson. He is taking advantage of the fact that Johnson would likely waive his no trade clause for any of these teams and that each team would prefer to have Johnson themselves rather than seeing an opponent get him. I'm not sure that the winner of this auction will be the Diamondbacks.  |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
told ya
I can see Sabean or Towers or Colletti much more willing than Josh to overpay for RJ |
Not really. I see the Dbacks as the best match for RJ.
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B. O. N. D.
Everyday Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 893
Location: San Francisco, California
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| TDF wrote: |
| I'm not sure that the winner of this auction will be the Diamondbacks. |
I think it will be if Randy has anything to say about it. Which he does.
He got his ring here. He played here 6 years and got a bunch of CYAs. His family is here. He's going to HOF as a freakin' Diamondback. The team's got it's shit together now. He extends his contract (reasonably), he might get another ring here*.
No way he goes to the Gnats. Way too dismal. Padres? Possible, but pass up a homecoming to AZ to do it? No way.
Worse case scenario: he stays in NY.
*By "here" I mean Arizona, not my "here".
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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Heyman Niceshot:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/12/25/yankees.johnson.zito/index.html
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In talks with Arizona, the Yankees have shown interest in several young pitchers, including Micah Owings, Ross Ohlendorf, Brandon Medders, Luis Vizcaino and Dana Eveland, who was just acquired in their six-player trade with Milwaukee that also brought them Doug Davis. However, to this point Arizona, which is stocked with young talent, has balked at the combinations the Yankees have requested.
The Giants have a decent crop of young pitchers to complete a trade for Johnson, while a Padres deal would likely include reliever Scott Linebrink, who's often the subject of trade rumors. |
LOL. Owings and Eveland should be pretty much untouchable. Ohlendorf is borderline. I'd also hang onto both Medders and Vizcaino, but if one of them HAD to go, I'd let go of Vizcaino, given service time and salary.
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B. O. N. D.
Everyday Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 893
Location: San Francisco, California
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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It'd sure chap Gonzo's hide if the Big Unit returned. Talk about stealing some thunder.... 
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| The DBacks have by far the best "spare" talent to offer, and would be the most desirable destination for RJ. That being said, I agree with shoewiz that JB will probably walk away if the price becomes too high... |
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B. O. N. D.
Everyday Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 893
Location: San Francisco, California
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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Talk about Josh Byrnes ass being in the fire.
He has a chance to bring a piece of history back to Phoenix. No fan's going to understand why he couldn't get the job done. The fans are already up in arms about Gonzo, the color change, and the lack of activity (no PV® talent acquired) in the offseason, and a million other things.
What if JB looks at the sitiuation, realizes he's being bent over, decides to keep to his guns and not sell out ARI's better prospects, and loses the Unit?
FO/franchise popularity goes far, far south.
Or, conversely, he gets RJ and RJ's over. He flushes $$ and prospects down the toilet. The fans hate him and the org.
What a great job! 
Time to see what JB's made of.
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allstar
AAA Stud
Joined: 02 Oct 2006
Posts: 68
Location: Chandler, AZ
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:17 pm Post subject: No Way |
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I would not trade, and I believe the Diamondbacks front office won't either, Micah Owings, Ross Ohlendorf, Dana Eveland, Brett Anderson, and Doug Slaten.
Here's what I see happening.
Dustin Nippert, Edgar Gonzalez, and Jose Valverde for Randy Johnson (let him sign 2 year contract extention) and at least $9 million to cover Johnson's fee. Yanks will do it, Johnson will do it, and like mentioned earlier, Webb-Johnson-Hernandez-Davis-Owings rotation looks mighty good to me.
(I'm over with Mark Mulder, lol. Merry Christmas everybody! )
-The Kid
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Too many girls out there to choose from. Just too many. lol. |
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tmar
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1192
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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I think a big part of JB's grade from the fans will come when a deal is either made or not made and the details are disclosed.
If we lose out because JB was offering Daigle & Clark and wanted the NYY to eat 10MM of RJ's salary, then I don't think he'll get much sympathy.
If we lose out because the NYY want CJ and Owings and aren't willing to eat any salary, I think the fans will understand.
I believe in Josh and think he'll make the right move and/or avoid the wrong one. |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Nippert, Edgar and Valverde? That's it? I don't see you offering Webb. Try a little harder next time... |
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Tucson DBacks Fan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 208
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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If there needs to be a 72 hour period to negotiate a new contract with Randy after a tentative trade is agreed upon, and assuming the Yankees want to complete the trade quickly to free up money for Zito, Clemens, or another purpose, we should know very soon the fate of this trade.
Last edited by Tucson DBacks Fan on Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:37 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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baldmaga
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 496
Location: Louisiana
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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I wonder how much of a paycut Randy would take...and if so...would JB really make the same mistake deferring money?
I mean, we still have Matt Williams on the payroll <_< |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3282
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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(I'm over with Mark Mulder, lol. Merry Christmas everybody! )
-The Kid |
Glad to see you took it so well!!
Hey, at least with this new crusade, Levski can be your partner. You could do worse.
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1776
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 9:56 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
Hey, at least with this new crusade, Levski can be your partner. You could do worse. |
True that, kid. You could be paired up with Shoewiz... 
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patlawman
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 11
Location: Gilbert, AZ
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't know the person who made this statement but "the manager who makes his decisions based upon the fans ends up sittting with them". I am sure JB has been well schooled in making your own decisions, to do otherwise is a big sign of weakness. I think JB will apply his own criteia as he has in the past, hopefully with the same type of results. |
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McCray
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:17 pm Post subject: |
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guys... something's not right about this. with the vasquez trade, it was silent. no rumors. whenever there's even been a rumor on any imminent trade (a rare event), that was usually denied. so why is AZ suddenly openly admitting that we're talking to the yankees about bringing randy home? why would byrnes want this new out in the open?
my only guess is that maybe he's not that invested in it -- that is, if it works, great, but if it doesn't, he still gets a good PR boost for being the guy who tried his darndest to bring randy home. but that can't be it.
so what's up? why did they allow this to get leaked? sure, i expected it would get leaked on the NY side, but why are the AZ people commenting? what the dilly yo?
(and merry christmas!)
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TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2419
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2006 11:23 pm Post subject: |
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| It's completely feasible that it was leaked on the NY side and Josh knew that by denying it he would lose credibility once all the details were eventually uncovered. |
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