Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:30 pm Post subject: Doug Davis 4.91 ERA Up or Down?

What say ye about our newest addition?

Dangerfield · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:43 pm Post subject:

3.85, 22 quality starts Laughing

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McCray · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:44 pm Post subject:

i voted down. his career era is 4.35, and i think next year's defense is gonna rock pretty hard, so hopefully his az results will be up from his milwaukee results. also, look at last year, compared to the three previous years of era+:

2006: 91
2005: 110
2004: 122
2003: 113

one of those seems like an abberation to me. i haven't heard anything of an injury, and he's still relatively young. i'm worried by the drop in Ks, and the shift in ballparks, but i think he's gonna be cool.
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Dangerfield · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:47 pm Post subject:

I watched enough Mil last year, the whole team stunk defensively.
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allstar · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:48 pm Post subject: Down

I really believe and think that the stellar Arizona defense featuring Drew, Young, Quentin, Jackson, Byrnes, lead by the gold glover Orlando Hudson will benefit Doug Davis similar to Brandon Webb (maybe not that good Wink

)
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misterx · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 9:20 pm Post subject:

i voted down i think he will have a better year then last year
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B. O. N. D. · Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 11:10 pm Post subject:

Step away from the poll, Shoewiz... hands in the air... Laughing

My weather knee tells me Davis is going to ROCK in Arizona.
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shoewizard · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 12:53 am Post subject:

I voted down

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 7:44 am Post subject:

The reason I voted down is because the NL West teams have not seen him as much. One of the reasons he started struggling against the Central teams was because they were laying off all his off speed stuff, and he was not getting the ball over enough to get the called strikes from the umps.

I think the NL West hitters are likely to bea bit more agressive with him early in the season the first or second time around, and that will allow him to get his walks back under 100.

If he walks over 100 again, well....then he and the D Backs will be SOL

My guess is Davis' ERA goes down, but not by so much that they will be anxious to sign him to a multi year deal.

Hank · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 8:32 am Post subject:

I voted down. McCray's numbers are fairly compelling. Unless Davis has suddenly hit a major decline, his numbers last year look like an outlier. I think improved defense, hitters not knowing him as well in the NL West, and a bounce back should make his numbers better.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

Dangerfield · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:06 am Post subject:

I go through his game log, from last year, he still looks pretty good, for the most part. Look for guys who have over 28+ starts and 185 innings, in general you'll find good patterns. Conversely, look for guys with less 185 innings, and 28+ starts. They tend to have patterns as well, just not so good.
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TSWINDERS · Journeyman Joined: 05 Sep 2006 Posts: 427

I agree with what Shoe said. It will take the NL west a little while to adjust there is also nothing to think that his ERA will stay the same much less go up.

David B · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 1:12 pm Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 1:40 pm Post subject:

Actually, I just said they have not seen him as much. I didn't say they were unfamiliar. I am not trying to play semantics, there is a difference in my mind.

I looked at his game logs before I posted. I am not expecting great things out of him, but I am expecting a league average era, or ERA+ around 100, which would be better than last year.

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1358

I haven't seen him play much but with our solid middle infield and OF D I'm WAGing down.

Hank · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 5:31 pm Post subject:

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

dirtygary · Posted: Thu Dec 21, 2006 10:47 pm Post subject:

Voted down, but only by a little. Excluding outliers, a logical progression would be an ERA+ of 106 or so. Maybe that equates to a higher era than the 4.9* he posted. in that case, I reverse it.
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