I think it would be better to take the money we're throwing at Mulder, and use it to sign a true impact pitcher instead. Just don't see Mulder ever being dominant, and us having to pay big $ for somebody just good enough. I'm confident that we could find 300 innings @ 4.5-5.0 ERA between the Gonzalez' & Nippert/Owings, while paying league minimum. Save the cash for a dominant #1.
An "impact" pitcher - like schmidt, would cost more than mulder.
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Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:59 pm Post subject:
qudjy1 wrote:
McCray wrote:
i really hope mulder doesn't come here. i just don't think he's ever going to be mulder again. what's the realistic best case scenario with him? league average with moments of brilliance? just enough of a tease that the team keeps using the option on him, but he never quite comes back? pass. let's pay 300K for league average. that way, anything above is truly gravy, and there's no painful "oh what could have been" stigma with it.
Well, if league average ERA is about 4.5 - i think he can do better than that.. He HAS been better than that in all but last year and his rookie year...
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Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 3:10 pm Post subject:
No real significance between the 3.91 and 3.93 "neutralized" ERA.
However, the difference in the W-L (actual) and W-L (neutralized) is a significant one; and, unlike the results for Webby, not a change that moves in a promising direction.
Unless any potential deal with Mulder is structured in our favor, I'd say, "Pass." As others have said, let's find out what we've already got (at league minimum) in 2007. That makes more sense to me than throwing big bucks at damaged goods.
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Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:09 pm Post subject:
qudjy1 wrote:
McCray wrote:
i really hope mulder doesn't come here. i just don't think he's ever going to be mulder again. what's the realistic best case scenario with him? league average with moments of brilliance? just enough of a tease that the team keeps using the option on him, but he never quite comes back? pass. let's pay 300K for league average. that way, anything above is truly gravy, and there's no painful "oh what could have been" stigma with it.
Well, if league average ERA is about 4.5 - i think he can do better than that.. He HAS been better than that in all but last year and his rookie year...
3.91 ERA career after neutralized
he has been better than league avg, i admit that. but this is a relatively new injury. the way i think about it, we just really need to throw out everything from before the injury. he won't be that guy again. which guy he'll be is up for debate, but this is about what i'm figuring:
pessimistic: he may very well never throw a complete season again. three, four games, then shut down for a few. then back, then shut down.
optimistic: around league avg, with flashes of brilliance, but never anything sustained.
in the worst case scenario, he adds nothing. in the best case scenario, he's like that hot mormon girl from high school. smokin' hot, but she ain't gonna put out. she'll just keep you strung along for the 5 yrs of the contract, and never give it up.
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Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:42 pm Post subject:
Barry Zito Before 102-63 3.55
Barry Zito After 95-61 3.35
Tim Hudson Before 119-60 3.53
Tim Hudson After 110-72 3.35
Mark Mulder Before 103-57 4.11
Mark Mulder After 77-65 3.93
Billy Beane HAD to trade Hudson, who was a year closer to free agency. He could have kept Mulder another year. But he decided to trade him and kept Zito.
Billy Beane HAD to trade Hudson, who was a year closer to free agency. He could have kept Mulder another year. But he decided to trade him and kept Zito.
Billy's kinda smart.
Well, thank god he traded Mulder as well, otherwise Beane would've looked like an idiot... with an injured Mulder on his hands, and Brad Halsey pretty much everything he had to show for Hudson.
While 20-20 is a bitch, Beane got pwn3d by the Braves in the Hudson deal. Then again, the Braves overpaid for a guy who's given them two mediocre seasons.
pessimistic: he may very well never throw a complete season again. three, four games, then shut down for a few. then back, then shut down.
optimistic: around league avg, with flashes of brilliance, but never anything sustained.
You and i dont disagree on too many things, but i disagree that his upside is 4.5 ERA (which i think is about league average - when his career average, even with 2 horrible years is 3.91. Yeah, i get it, this is a bad injury, and to expect his prime years of low to mid 3s probably isnt silly... but what if he is a 4.0 ERA locked in at 5M,8m,8M for 3 years (with 1 or 2 of those options). I think there is value there...
From the comments I've heard regarding the trade, it doesn't sound like Mulder's going to put himself into a position of being fully recovered and being stuck to a bunch of under-priced options.
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Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:31 pm Post subject:
i think we are much, much, much more likely to get a 4ish era from owings or edgon than to ever get it from mulder. just my opinion, though, and you're right -- we usually agree on most everything.
but mulder... i just don't get a good vibe from him. i was telling you earlier today in PMs that i broke my left hand, right? and today i had to help the GF move a bed. with a broken hand. and everytime we were going to push, we'd say, "1, 2, 3," and on three, i never pushed.
i hesitated. because i knew it was about to hurt.
now look at mulder's delivery in slow motion. before the injury, there's no hitch, no hesitation. but after the injury, right before he gasses it out, he hesitates.
it's pain. it's his shoulder being shredded. and i just see him as a very, very, very long shot to ever be a decent pitcher again. and i see the kids down on the farm as more likely to outperform him, both in the short term and the long term.
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From the comments I've heard regarding the trade, it doesn't sound like Mulder's going to put himself into a position of being fully recovered and being stuck to a bunch of under-priced options.
Then pass... What he wants in his contract is key - i wouldnt advocate giving him 3 years guaranteed...
Last edited by qudjy1 on Sun Dec 17, 2006 8:36 am; edited 1 time in total
Some Other Team signs Mulder:
2007-08 combined stats = 36-11, 3.14
And then everyone can be pessimistic except allstar
Personally I don't think he'll ever be Mulder of 2001 again, but I still like him and think he has some value, especially as a second-half season insurance policy if the kids can't work out the kinks quite yet. And if a couple of them do (do do) well, then lets hope Byrnes has enough sense to trade Mulder back around and keep a good thing going before Melvin digs his claws onto one of the rookies.
True, the market will correct itself in a few years, but I actually worry that one of these "workhorses" like Livan & Davis will break down just as easily this year because, as such is life, nothing is guaranteed. Except Russ Ortiz's money, which is why if the contract gets too out of hand I do (do do) agree to just walk away. if they don't have the answer, why they still standing there? hey hey hey walk away.
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but mulder... i just don't get a good vibe from him. i was telling you earlier today in PMs that i broke my left hand, right? and today i had to help the GF move a bed. with a broken hand. and everytime we were going to push, we'd say, "1, 2, 3," and on three, i never pushed.
i hesitated. because i knew it was about to hurt.
before the injury, there's no hitch, no hesitation. but after the injury, right before he gasses it out, he hesitates.
it's pain. it's his shoulder being shredded. and i just see him as a very, very, very long shot to ever be a decent pitcher again. and i see the kids down on the farm as more likely to outperform him, both in the short term and the long term.
This is kind of my point... You didnt push the bed now, but when your hand heals - you'll be back pushin... (shoulders are different, i know)
My opinion is that his decline over the last year is that he was already hurt, and playing through it...
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Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:26 am Post subject:
In the past, when stupid trades or signing were proposed, I fell pretty comfortable critisizing those moves. After all, the guys making the player personnell decisions really were not any better at evaluating value or projecting future performance any better than I am.
However with Josh Byrnes and his crew, I recognize that they are smarter and more knowledgeable than I am, and of course have access to much more information as well. So when I don't agree with a move, after I register my initial opinions, I am much more open minded and willing to be convinced or swayed.
I didn't think Livan would work out, and I still think he will be hard pressed to keep his ERA under 4.80 in 2007. But his results for us in 2006 were better than expected, and so as of right now, I was wrong.
I don't think Mulder's potential upside going foward is anywhere near his peak of 2001, and therefore I think he is a bad risk. But I don't know how much money is being guaranteed to Mulder, especially in year one, so I can't judge this offer.
Like Oden says, I am willing to go the IBWT route....but I can't shake my skepticism
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Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:21 am Post subject:
qudjy, a lot of people have broken their hands and later pushed beds successfully. how many have come back from this surgery? it's a slim slim chance to start with that he comes back with any effectiveness. slimmer by pitching half his games in the bob.
but i admit, hot mit girl is smarter than me. way smarter. so if byrnes and his crew think mulder's a good bet, then like shoe, i'll give them the benefit of the doubt. but right now i can't see a way this pays off.
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how many have come back from this surgery? it's a slim slim chance to start with that he comes back with any effectiveness. slimmer by pitching half his games in the bob.
Clemens had this surgery in 1984. (i think that was the year)
I forgot to mention - I dont think this kind of thing is something that people can be "smarter" about... i think it is a matter of JB and Co. having more information than we do (the doc reports and prognosis.)
Well, although I don't think it is that important to others, let me openly admit that my prediction was wrong. I thought the Diamondbacks would have made another deal by midnight yesterday. I'm not impatient --- it has nothing to do with that. There was some increased activity in the media, and I thought something would happen. Also, after a long pause, the Vasquez deal happenned on December 15 last year. I still am convinced the Diamondbacks aren't "done."
Well, although I don't think it is that important to others, let me openly admit that my prediction was wrong. I thought the Diamondbacks would have made another deal by midnight yesterday. I'm not impatient --- it has nothing to do with that. There was some increased activity in the media, and I thought something would happen. Also, after a long pause, the Vasquez deal happenned on December 15 last year. I still am convinced the Diamondbacks aren't "done."
I don't think anyone here was holding his breath waiting for your prediction to come true.
I don't think Mulder's potential upside going foward is anywhere near his peak of 2001, and therefore I think he is a bad risk.
That's what's been buggin me about this too.
We should be pursuing every 25-and-under arm in mlb. Not only are they younger and entering prime production, but there's also a generational shift, from the Last of the Gen X to the first of the Gen Y's. These kids are different. They're more refined.
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We should be pursuing every 25-and-under arm in mlb. Not only are they younger and entering prime production, but there's also a generational shift, from the Last of the Gen X to the first of the Gen Y's. These kids are different. They're more refined.
Not to mention that these kids are really cheap to acquire in trades. I'm guessing we can easily have Homer Bailey for Tony Clark and Phillip Hughes for Jorge Julio. The remaining 29 GMs certainly have no clue that those 25 and under arms are entering their prime production. Better rip them off before they wake up. And while we're at it, Eric Byrnes for Frankie Liriano and Matt Garza.
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Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 3:40 pm Post subject:
What Levski said.
I meant "expensive" as in getting butt-raped in trades/propects to acquire them, if they were ever stupidly or desperately made available, not their league minimum salaries.
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The remaining 29 GMs certainly have no clue that those 25 and under arms are entering their prime production. Better rip them off before they wake up. And while we're at it, Eric Byrnes for Frankie Liriano and Matt Garza.
Forgot about Cashman. Make it the other 28 GM's. And seriously, if you're going to be as sarcastic as that, at least add some humor.
But if pitching is so valuable right now, why don't we move some of ours for positional talent, like maybe another 3B? Only suggesting it because of buy lo/sell hi, and that we could rake somebody over the coals for a good young pitcher.
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Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:33 am Post subject:
Quote:
But if pitching is so valuable right now, why don't we move some of ours for positional talent, like maybe another 3B? Only suggesting it because of buy lo/sell hi, and that we could rake somebody over the coals for a good young pitcher.
outside of webb, do we have any good young pitching?
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I was thinking about the Gonzo's, Nippert, Owings, etc.
I know we need those guys, but just proposing this on the premise of buy lo/sell hi. Maybe we could get position players, like a good 2B or 3B that would help us shed some payroll. Yeah, yeah, we'll just need to spend it on more pitching, but we might have upgrades at some other positions, as well. Just a thought.
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