Diamondbacks Bullpen

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 12:42 pm Post subject: Help Me With BABIP

I've read the definition. I understand the formula, at least the mechanics of it. I'm having a hard time conceptualizing it's importance or what it really MEANS about a player.

I've seen BABIP brought-up in several discussions, in different contexts... most recently about Drew. Someone mentioned his BABIP was extremely high, and in most contexts I've seen a high BABIP treated as suspicious and not sustainable.

Uh? I need help. Confused

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levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

everything you wanted to know about babip

http://www.babip.org/

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

ok, a discussion here

http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11

babip is far more commonly used when talking about pitchers

McCray · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 1:57 pm Post subject:

my understanding is that babip, whether for a hitter or a pitcher, is mostly dependent on chance. that is, for most everyone, it's right around 300 (i think). so, when drew hit 380 or whatever for his babip last year, he was freakishly lucky. that is, all he had to do was make contact and it had a great chance of being a hit. a better chance than normal, at least.

so, logically, drew won't continue to have a 380 babip next season, since it's luck-based. he had a lucky 06. that doesn't make his 07 any better though. and since most people stay around 300, it's a good bet to think he'll drop towards that.

same for pitchers. if you see a pitcher with a babip over 300, he's been unlucky, or he's played in front of bad defense. next year, he'll likely be better. a pitcher with a 100 babip is having a lucky year. he'll get worse.

any help?
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B. O. N. D. · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 3:36 pm Post subject:

Good one, Levski... Mad

From the discussion Levski's link points to:

McCray · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 5:45 pm Post subject:

jeter and ichiro's babip seem to me to be more speed dependent -- that is, i see those two guys legging out a lot of infield hits that would artificially inflate their babip. i'm not too familiar with abreu or helton, but i'm fairly sure manny's not one of the faster guys in the game, so that one puzzles me.
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shoewizard · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 6:07 pm Post subject:

Drew was .396, not .380

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 6:58 pm Post subject:

McCray · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 9:03 pm Post subject:

a 396 babip is gonna drop, yeah. but this kid is pretty fast down to first. i'd say there's a decent chance he stays somewhere above avg. just... not this far above.
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