Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:14 pm Post subject: Stephen Drew 874 OPS Up or Down

The third in the series.

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:15 pm Post subject:

I vote down....ALOT

His BA and OBP were fueled by a ridiculous and unsustainable .396 BABIP.

However he can offset some of the drop he is going to see in BABIP by increasing his contact rate.

His 14-50 BB/K ratio in 226 plate appearances MUST improve, significantly, or we will be looking at a major sophomore slump.

McCray · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:38 pm Post subject:

i voted down too. but i don't think a lot. i think the first half of the season will be rough on him, with the drop in BABIP and the poor contact rates. but he's a very smart kid, it seems. i've seen him make mental adjustments within a single at-bat, signficant ones within a game. i think he'll turn around, have a good second half, and end up with pretty good numbers. just a slight tick down, because of the ugly start.
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Hank · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:39 pm Post subject:

What Shoe said. I think Drew will have the toughest sophomore slump of them all, and I think the fans will ride him mercilessly. I think his long-term prospects look a lot better than this year, which is probably going to have a lot of K's in it.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1238

I say down too... 820...

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1380

My guess is it'll go up. He seemed to walk more and fan less as the season went on. He also was missing the breaking stuff by a smaller margin and seemed more comfortable in the box. I love the way he tattoos the low away stuff to LF and feel that his SLG% will go up a bit.

coolwater · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 5:23 am Post subject:

Vote "Up"
When called up Bigleaue first ,He had a little struggle time
but he overcame soon,put good numbers.
I think that's his character.
I have a concern about his health.
Without Health issue, I don't have any doubt of his hitting.
What a pretty swing!!
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Dangerfield · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:00 am Post subject:

If they listen to me he does. but geez wouldn't 800-825 be considered elite?

What you have to take into account, he is all that with the bat, don't worry about the numbers, his high k-rate comes from having a plan at the plate, and his swing angle. Chad T and Cj have a much different plane to their swing, Chad T changed his approach last year, I'd go into more on these topics but won't. suffice to say, Drew will always have a higher k rate, no big deal because he's also going to have a higher ave and slg%. NOw the day his bb/k ratio goes over .75 he'll be putting mvp type numbers. For the MFY of course....
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levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1907

I can see Drew having a Hanley Ramirez version 2006 season.

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:47 am Post subject:

I agree that anything over an .800 OPS from a shortstop that plays every day, and gives you league average or better defense is more than acceptable, it would be great.

The question of the poll is not whether Drew will be a good player, I think we all agree he will be. The question is whether he will post a higher or lower OPS than .874

dirtygary · Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:34 am Post subject:

Nowhere to go but down. He was hot as hell when he started, and everything was finding a hole. Can't keep it up. But the BB/K ratio should improve. I think he just needed an adjustment phase that will allow him to better identify pitches and at least make contact with 2 strikes.
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rgndvo · MLB Rookie Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 158

Im thinking in the .830-.840 range personally but if hes right at .875, I wouldnt be shocked. I know the babip and obp seem unsustainable but I think his iso or slg could go up a little.

Dangerfield · Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2007 12:12 pm Post subject:

Couple a years of 100 k's then he's off to the races. Has the same type of whip A-rod has, but no, doesn't have A-rod's innate power. Like him in the 2 hole in front of CoJack, due to his ability to get a bunt down if needed to open the cj/cq/tracy tri-fecta, on occasion. Yes, he'll k 100 times, but the synergy of Cj behind him makes up for it.

300/350/500/850 ops. 40 doubles/ 20sb's/ 15 hr's maybe sneak up on 20.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it