It amazes me that most on DBBP don't think the Dbacks can win more than 84 games in 2016. They won 79 last season with De La Rosa, Anderson, and Hellickson getting 86 of the starts with 29 wins. So Greinke, Miller, and a full season of Corbin aren't worth another 10+ wins?

Oh yeah. That was definitely a Joe Jr. joint.

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Greinke good, uniforms bad.

They certainly can.

The 84 number is just a median number based on the projections going forward of all the players on the team and relative to the other teams in the division and the league.

But as we all know actual outcomes will vary up or down as much as 10 games, or occassionally even more than that. If you ran a simulation with this roster, you would get a certain percntage of outcomes higher and lower than the median. Obviously the further you get from the median, the smaller the percentages of that outcome.

But if you go player by player, and add up their projected run production and run prevention, it adds up to somewhere around 84' give or take.

So 82-86 is really the highest likelihood, with smaller percentages obviously for outcomes such as 90 or 78' or whatever.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

The problem is that those pitching upgrades are coupled with issues on the position player side:

- Losing Inciarte knocks off a couple wins
- The production they received from Castillo is unlikely to be repeated
- Goldschmidt and Pollock are more likely to decline than they are to repeat or better their career years

Improvements from 2B+SS+3B would help offset those issues and I'd like to think that Tomas will be better. Still, it's not hard to see a scenario the position players could collectively be worse than last year without any particularly bad luck. The big risk of having a low payroll and so much of the position player value concentrated in two players is that this team can't weather a meaningful drop in production from Goldschmidt or Pollock the way the Dodgers could with Puig last year.

definitely concerned about the lack of down-system depth and the possible inability from within to provide positive value if injuries crop up.

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So-cratz - "The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing".

Actually it's more like over 30% of the payroll for one player, for the foreseeable future.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

Is it fair to add Peralta to the career year part as well?

I expect all 3 of them to still have good years, but it isn't easy for me to expect them to repeat that same overall production or improve on it.

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

Good points made be many. However, the Dodgers SP is not as good as 2015 and perhaps more importantly, many of their key players are well into their thirties and are due to regress. The Giants too have questions such as can Pagan provide much of anything for them in CF/LF? Is Brandon Belt one concussion away from ending his career? Pence is entering his age 33 season, Pagan 34, and Span age 32. Even Blanco is 32.

I plan on updating This Post showing both ZIPS and Steamer projections and the average with Giants and Dodgers included.

I think when you see that and look at ALL the players in aggregate it will make more sense why those teams project better on paper right now.

After the Atlantis Sports book in Reno came out with 84.5 win over/under for D Backs, they had to move the line to 83, as all the action was coming on the under. That doesn't mean thats a correct projection or prediction where the team will be, but it DOES speak to the general perception of the team by people that follow the sport closely enough to actually place bets on over/under win totals.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Another factor to consider is the quality of the FO. If you gave each organization the same assets and budget to start the year, I'd bet money that the D-backs would end up with fewest wins. It's pretty rare that things all go according to plan in baseball; unfortunately, the D-backs have less margin for error than the competition and I have zero confidence in their ability to make adjustments.

From Jayson Stark / ESPN:

Most improved teams (National League)

Diamondbacks: 22

Cubs: 13

Giants: 6

If we had created a category entitled "Most Shocking Winter," we almost guarantee the Diamondbacks would have won that one, too. Within the other 29 front offices, a lot of really smart people were scratching their heads and describing this team's ultra-aggressive offseason with words such as "hard to fathom." That's because, really, nobody saw this coming.

Raise your hand if you predicted in October that the D-backs would be the club throwing $206.5 million at Zack Greinke. Raise your hand if you saw them dropping the No. 1 pick in the country in June, shortstop Dansby Swanson, into a package that brought Shelby Miller. Hmmm. We're not seeing a lot of hands out there.

Why do we get the feeling that's the part of this go-for-it eruption that chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart enjoy most? They knew they were risking a little long-term peril for a dramatic short-term assault on the reign of the Dodgers and Giants in the NL West. And you know what? They. Didn't. Care.

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

If Greinke, Miller, and Corbin make 90+ starts, I have a real hard time believing this team wins less than 84 games.

$1.5B>$210M

Big market Royals payroll $133.5M>small mkt Dbacks $91M

Tomas=wasted $

They give away prospects like I give away Halloween candy.

They dont have a lead off hitter and other holes to fill.

But I keep looking at that rotation.

Greinke
Miller
Corbin
Bradley
Whoever

And I feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Those four all firing and I know thats a big "if" but that will make this team tough to deal with.

90 wins!

Segura is fast, of course he will hit leadoff!

Personally I'd put AJ there

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

I've always thought of AJ as a #2 hitter, but I guess we don't really have a true leadoff. This franchise never really has. (TW5's OBP for his 4 full years here was .319.)

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC

I'm just glad they're finally playing ball and we have something to talk about. The off-season was definitely interesting, but not much going on for the last couple of months. All hail spring training.

Greinke looking good today.

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"Tomorrow is not promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

Bowden thinks we should get Lucroy before opening day, and throws this out as the bait (per ESPN insider piece):



http://espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/ ... t?id=12204

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So-cratz - "The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing".

Don't give DS34 any ideas...

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC

Leadoff hitter talk.

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/national-league/arizona-diamondbacks/decisions-decisions-d-backs-ponder-lineup/



That'd be some low OBP if Ahmed or Segura end up hitting leadoff regularly.

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC