In my opinion going out and bringing in someone like Wolf is too much of a risk. The guy hasn't had a full season since 2003 (last productive full season 2002) to go out there and give him a guaranteed 6-7 million per year contract. Can he stay healthy? If so can he return to be the pitcher he was 4 years ago? What happens if he isn't through the injuries? The team just invested all that money into a guy who either won't be able to play (Matt Mantei) or will and fail miserably (Russ Ortiz).
This is where the team has to take a different stance on incentive based contracts. Swearing those off basically cripples the options they have at their disposal in looking to fill out the rotation.
As far as contending I wouldn't really call winning the west as being a "contender" after watching the beatings the Padres and Dodgers have taken in the playoffs the past 3 years. A lot of things have to go right for them to "contend" and realistically they are still a little bit away from that.
In fact, Enrique should probably be in the pen; I like Edgar's chances of succeeding as a starter a lot more.
Thats an intriguing statement. I don't disagree....but I'm curious why you think so?
I think Enrique's stuff can be maximized in shorter outings, maybe a couple of innings at a time. He becomes too hittable later in the game. Also, I don't like his strikeout rates, both in AAA and in the majors. He can't survive as a starter with those. As a reliever, he could use his pitches more effectively.
Edgar is the more polished pitcher, and he doesn't have the arsenal to be a dominant reliever; however, his command of three-four solid pitches and control of the strike zone could make him more effective as a starter. I see Enrique being similar to Tony Pena for us...
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Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 9:49 pm Post subject:
That is more or less the sense of Enrique that I have as well....
The one thing that you said that does not quite jive with his 2006 playing record though is about increased hittability as the game goes on.
Actually, his problem was the opposite. He was getting killed in the first inning and then settling in from there...until tiring in the 7th, (when he actually made it there)
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Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:09 pm Post subject:
that's a very valid point about randy. he was the risky choice of that offseason. kevin brown, iirc, was the safe choice. brown had great numbers, better health. randy had a balky back, and had sucked the first half of the year, and only dominated once he got to houston (i also recall a few articles about how randy had only dominated in houston because he was new to the NL, and it wouldn't last).
az has always gone for the higher risk options on the FA market. i don't get the people who are suddenly saying we can't risk that -- we've always risked that!
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.
How about a guy AKA "The Big Unit" with back problems or Schills coming back from surgery? They worked out OK..no?
We traded spare parts for Curt and Randy was only 10-1 with a 1.28 era in the 2nd half of the season with Houston the year before
And RJ cost a lot more than Wolf would...
You're comparing apples and oranges here. You tell me which pitcher we should be saving the $10m for, and what your war plan will be after 2007.
It's easy to just criticize moves someone makes; it's a lot more difficult to actually start making moves that do make sense. Be the paper GM; teach us
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Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:12 pm Post subject:
levski wrote:
actually, shoewiz, looking at those splits, I think he was getting killed all the time (except for the 2nd inning!)
not sure why I believed he became more hittable with time... maybe I had him confused with elmer (just kidding).
regardless, I still have higher hopes for Edgar as a starter than Enrique
edgar's control is a ways ahead of enrique's, but enrique's stuff is vastly superior, IMHO. edgar's the safer bet, probably, but enrique's got a higher ceiling.
i'd still be fine with him in the 'pen next season, though.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.
Cost is only part of the story. What about talent? Randy Wolf isn't half the pitcher Randy Johnson was back then. Randy showed that he was worth the risk with his 2nd half performance and his playoff performance. Wolf hasn't done anything since 2002.
levski wrote:
You're comparing apples and oranges here. You tell me which pitcher we should be saving the $10m for, and what your war plan will be after 2007.
Well to start out with there are the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy but lets ignore them for the obvious and look at the 2nd tier Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano... all of which are better options then what they are looking at this off-season
For whatever reason I feel you think I am talking about going after the big name FAs such as Zito or Schmidt which I am not. I just believe there are better options available in the near future to waste money now on a has been like Randy Wolf or other potential FAs this off-season (Ohka, Mulder,...).
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Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 11:02 pm Post subject:
Quote:
Well to start out with there are the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy but lets ignore them for the obvious and look at the 2nd tier Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano... all of which are better options then what they are looking at this off-season
But none of your "better options" that you list are available, so whats the point?
They are not free agents, so you can't just sign them...and to trade for them you have to give up alot of talent to get them...AND pay them big time money to boot.
But none of your "better options" that you list are available, so whats the point?
They are not free agents, so you can't just sign them...and to trade for them you have to give up alot of talent to get them...AND pay them big time money to boot.
That was my exact take on the situation when all of those trade for Bonderman/Westbrook ideas were being thrown around. I am simply saying that they are all approaching free agency in the near future and are all part of the 2nd tier pitching market in their respective FA years and that we should save up to make a run at them as they are all better options for the long term success of the team over the quick fix approach with Wolf.
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Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 11:20 pm Post subject:
OK...gotcha...... Save the ten million for later.
I was the one that started most of those trade idea threads of course. Basically the process of discussing and considering those ideas lead most of us to conclude that there was no reasonable way to trade for serious upgrade in pitching without literally selling the farm.
Of course with salary inflation the way it is right now, that 10 million will only be worth about 5 or 6 million in two years.....
You're comparing apples and oranges here. You tell me which pitcher we should be saving the $10m for, and what your war plan will be after 2007.
Well to start out with there are the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy but lets ignore them for the obvious and look at the 2nd tier Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano... all of which are better options then what they are looking at this off-season
Wait, are you saying these guys will be free agents after 2007?
Zambrano will be. ANd ditto for Westbrook and Jennings.
Bonderman and Capuano and Peavy won't, so why are they even on the list?
Furthermore, the Cubs will lock up Zambrano. He won't even hit free agency. And finally, how much do you think Wesbrook and Jennings will cost? A whole lot more than Wolf. Do you think they'll be better value than Wolf at their contracts, even assuming AZ can sign them? I don't.
You're comparing apples and oranges here. You tell me which pitcher we should be saving the $10m for, and what your war plan will be after 2007.
Well to start out with there are the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy but lets ignore them for the obvious and look at the 2nd tier Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano... all of which are better options then what they are looking at this off-season
Wait, are you saying these guys will be free agents after 2007?
Zambrano will be. ANd ditto for Westbrook and Jennings.
Bonderman and Capuano and Peavy won't, so why are they even on the list?
Furthermore, the Cubs will lock up Zambrano. He won't even hit free agency. And finally, how much do you think Wesbrook and Jennings will cost? A whole lot more than Wolf. Do you think they'll be better value than Wolf at their contracts, even assuming AZ can sign them? I don't.
I was listing them for multiple seasons instead of just focusing on 2007.
2007: Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Scott Linebrink, Chris Carpenter, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano....
2008: Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Bonderman, Jake Peavy, Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets....
2009: Chris Capuano, Josh Beckett, Tim Hudson, Dontrelle Willis, ....
I believe Jennings/Westbrook etc... will hold better value to their contracts then Wolf would to his because I have no faith in Randy Wolf. I don't see him being any better then Vargas or some of the other young pitchers we already have and with that I don't see any benefit in signing him unless the team were to cave in on their stance on incentive based contracts or he were to settle for less then that 3/21.
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Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 12:01 am Post subject:
shoewizard wrote:
clpp01 wrote:
Well to start out with there are the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy but lets ignore them for the obvious and look at the 2nd tier Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Jeremy Bonderman, Chris Capuano... all of which are better options then what they are looking at this off-season
They are not free agents, so you can't just sign them...and to trade for them you have to give up alot of talent to get them...AND pay them big time money to boot.
Tom Krasovic / Union-Tribune wrote:
Clubs inquiring about Peavy in years past were laughed away, and when it was reported in July that Peavy was the subject of talks with the Red Sox, Towers said he told Peavy that Peavy would be with the Padres as long as Towers was. Said Towers on Saturday: “I don't see Jake Peavy going anywhere this winter.”
At 25, Peavy is just entering his prime years. He struck out 215 this year, second in the NL and compelling proof, pitching coach Darren Balsley said, that Peavy's career-high 4.09 ERA was a fluke.
But some in the industry and close to the organization wouldn't be stunned to see Peavy traded, citing the Padres' penchant for dealing players as their heaviest salaries come due; the emergence of starters Chris Young and Clay Hensley, who combined will make about $1 million; and Peavy's shoulder flare-ups in May and in a second consecutive September.
SD has Peavy locked up through 2009 (club option in '09), with a salary that jumps about $2M per year ($2.5M in '06, $4.75 in '07, $6M in '08, $8M in '09). What are the chances Jake bounces back next season to '05 form? I don't think I'd pull that trigger considering the talent he'd demand in return and his performance-challenged '06 season.
I wouldn't agree with " spare parts" as we gave up...
"Philadelphia Phillies traded Curt Schilling to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla and Nelson Figueroa."
While I feel that yesterdays's Travis Lee may be today's Conor Jackson, ( don't crucify me shoe dawg) Daal was decent and Padilla is still a player. Figueroa had some value in some circles.
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Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 12:28 am Post subject:
Just for clarification regarding my Peavy potential trade comments, salary isn't an issue. His recurring shoulder pain (9/05, 5/06, 9/06) and rising OBPA and SLGA vs. talent SD would require in trade for him make it too risky IMO.
I was listing them for multiple seasons instead of just focusing on 2007.
2007: Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Scott Linebrink, Chris Carpenter, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano....
Why are we even listing closers and other relievers here?
Carpenter and Zambrano won't hit the free agent market. I doubt that Westbrook will either. Of the rest, do you really want Wood? And why are Garcia and Jennings that much better than Wolf? And if they have very good years in 07, they'll price themselves too high anyhow.
Quote:
2008: Francisco Rodriguez, Scott Shields, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Bonderman, Jake Peavy, Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Ben Sheets....
What's up with the relievers again? So this is a decent crop of starters, but you can take Peavy out again. The rest... all have question marks... except for Bonderman, right now. Maybe Penny.
And 2009? Why not tell me who'll be a free agent after 2012?
Quote:
I believe Jennings/Westbrook etc... will hold better value to their contracts then Wolf would to his because I have no faith in Randy Wolf.
Well, that settles it then. You don't believe in Wolf. There's no arguing that. Arguing against that is like hating America.
....
See, acquiring players is a lot like real estate (cue: TAP). You know you need 25 properties (actually 40, for argument's sake) and you know you want to buy undervalued properties in good locations... i.e., properties who's value will go up. So you target fixer-uppers in good neighborhoods, give them some TLC, and reap the profits. If you find value in 2006, and if you can exploit that value in 08 and 09, you get that property.
You know that the price of starting pitching will only go up. You know that you'll need starting pitching in 08 and 09, for sure, but you'll most likely need it in 07 as well. You think you can get a bargain in 07 for 09. You just do it. You don't wait around until 2009 to build your roster.
Furthermore, baseball isn't like Wal-Mart where you have HDTVs all the time. Some years the free agent market is better, some years it's really tough and there's no one out there. Some years there are real bargains. If you think you have a bargain that fits your plans and needs, you go for it. It's always better to act a year early than a year late.
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Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 8:28 am Post subject:
I think it's a great discussion Lev.
This is the type of stuff that I enjoy reading from you the most. Most people here can look at stats and charts and get a sense of a guys likely performance level going forward. Whats different about what you do is how you put that in the context of the market, contract amount and length, and just as importantly, present and future trade value.
I know I for one am very happy you are actively posting again, and finally seem to be getting over "whipped itis" to some degree.
clpp01, I share your skepticism with how Randy Wolf might do here. I have posted a long debate with levski over Wolf in the other thread. My concerns and doubts about him have been somewhat mitigated by recent investigation into Tommy John Surgery pitchers, and how they come back. I did not do nearly an extensive or detailed enough study to come to any definitive conclusions however.....basically I just spent parts of a couple of days searching around for articles and studies on the internet.
I found enough to at least move my "doubt meter" more towards the center. My concerns about his flyball tendencies still exist.
However, the simple fact that Josh Byrnes and Levski both seem to think this is a good idea makes the idea worth considering further with a more open mind. Although it's possible that Josh Byrnes could be pulling a deke on everyone here, and will pull the rug out from under Levski's feet.
In fact, Enrique should probably be in the pen; I like Edgar's chances of succeeding as a starter a lot more.
Thats an intriguing statement. I don't disagree....but I'm curious why you think so?
I think Enrique's stuff can be maximized in shorter outings, maybe a couple of innings at a time. He becomes too hittable later in the game. Also, I don't like his strikeout rates, both in AAA and in the majors. He can't survive as a starter with those. As a reliever, he could use his pitches more effectively.
Edgar is the more polished pitcher, and he doesn't have the arsenal to be a dominant reliever; however, his command of three-four solid pitches and control of the strike zone could make him more effective as a starter. I see Enrique being similar to Tony Pena for us...
I like 'riques stuff and when he 1st came up it seemed that he was more effective. He seemed to tire later in the season but I think ( didn't research it ) that he threw way more innings this year than ever before.
I am at a slight disadvantage on Edgar as i was not able to see a few of his starts this year. Although, I remember seeing him did get bombed in previous campaigns.
I feel that 'rique has the "stuff" to be successful at the ML level if he can get used to the work load.
My WAG is that 'rique outperforms Edgar as a starter.
that's a very valid point about randy. he was the risky choice of that offseason. kevin brown, iirc, was the safe choice. brown had great numbers, better health. randy had a balky back, and had sucked the first half of the year, and only dominated once he got to houston (i also recall a few articles about how randy had only dominated in houston because he was new to the NL, and it wouldn't last).
az has always gone for the higher risk options on the FA market. i don't get the people who are suddenly saying we can't risk that -- we've always risked that!
IIRC there were a number of prognosticators that felt that RJ was done if not that year then soon after.
At the time, it was a risky signing on a muti-year deal.
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