NL WEST: The Dodgers want to go with their young guys but they want one more starting pitcher (Schmidt?). They are also in pursuit of Luis Gonzalez. The Padres need a bat and have been linked to Bonds. The Giants have been in talks for Soriano, Juan Pierre, and Matthews. Arizona GM Josh Byrnes is going with his young players, but there was talk at the meetings that he might take a chance on Carl Pavano if the Yankees eat some of the remaining two years of the deal.
Didn't someone here (levski?) float this idea recently?
It seems that AZ is going after the high risk/high reward market <Wolf, Pavano, Mulder> vs the Elmer Dessens's at the same price.
This makes sense as we have several pitchers in the minors who could come up and likely post Dessens like numbers if one of our high risk acquisitions doesn't pan out.
Joined: 02 Oct 2006
Posts: 82
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 9:50 am Post subject: Why not?
I say why not get Carl Pavano.
I mean, if the Yankees eat up most of his contract which they will, then it'll be pretty worth it. Both Pavano and Wolf sounds decent at least and better than what we've had from last year. I'm sure Josh Byrnes will get at least one high caliber pitcher, anyway so it's not like these two guys are like our #2 pitcher or whatever.
Doesn't sound bad if we think about (like levski said) the guys such as Micah Owings, Brett Anderson, and Ross Ohlendorf in the farm.
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Too many girls out there to choose from. Just too many. lol.
I think the question is, Is there evidence he can stay healthy again?
Yeah... I agree - that is what i was trying to say...
Quote:
No way the Yankees were going to trade Pavano for Ortiz though...
Yep... i think i was adding a prospect on our side to even it up (fantasy world i know) - but yanks obviously werent interested in ortiz, as if they were - im sure JB would have come up with something...
Because someone determined a long time ago that there wouldnt be an even playing field in terms of teams salary. Teams with 60M payrolls need to try to find undervalued players...
Because someone determined a long time ago that there wouldnt be an even playing field in terms of teams salary. Teams with 60M payrolls need to try to find undervalued players...
There will be no such thing as an undervalued pitcher the way the market is going. Using the Wolf rumor 6-7 million a year for a guy who hasn't put together a good full season since 2002 is just as irresponsible as signing Russ Ortiz to that horrible contract and are the type of financial decisions that put the team into this massive hole of debt. Those types of moves seem to be too much of a high risk medium reward type situations.
With Pavano he has had a total of 1 worthy season of being a front line starter and that was a contract year, he then cashed that in and has not been seen since. If they could get the Yankees to eat 15 of that 23 million he is owed over the next 2 years + 09 buyout it would be a decent risk but with the yanks desperate need of SP and no demand to clear salary in the near future they wont cut that much off without getting something decent in return.
the Wolf rumor 6-7 million a year for a guy who hasn't put together a good full season since 2002 is just as irresponsible as signing Russ Ortiz
There is risk, no doubt, but i think shoe/levski/mccray have done a bunch of research on guys coming back from TJ, and are starting to feel comfortable with the Wolf idea... Ortiz had many other red flags than wolf does...
The idea behind pavano, is that we would give up basically nothing for him, and there would be little lost if NYY picked up a bunch of salary - it would work if it was a low cost / high risk / high reward type of deal..
I understand why you dont like these moves.. they are risky, but what do you see as the alternative? What should AZ do this offseason?
the Wolf rumor 6-7 million a year for a guy who hasn't put together a good full season since 2002 is just as irresponsible as signing Russ Ortiz
There is risk, no doubt, but i think shoe/levski/mccray have done a bunch of research on guys coming back from TJ, and are starting to feel comfortable with the Wolf idea... Ortiz had many other red flags than wolf does...
The idea behind pavano, is that we would give up basically nothing for him, and there would be little lost if NYY picked up a bunch of salary - it would work if it was a low cost / high risk / high reward type of deal..
I understand why you dont like these moves.. they are risky, but what do you see as the alternative? What should AZ do this offseason?
I haven't done the original research; I've just looked into it...
I say no to Pavano. The Yankees would have to eat a lot of salary to make it doable and they won't do that for some shit minor leaguer. Besides, Pavano has never really been that good. At least Wolf has been able to consistantly pitch at a league average leve.
Would we have taken a shit minor leaguer and pay MOST of the salary to get ORTIZ out of here last year...
I think the answer is yes...
Does NYY view Pavano as thier Ortiz? As to how much they would be willing to pay, i have no idea.
For me - i think if we give up a couple minor leaguers of litlle value, and we end up paying about 1-2M per year for him, i think its a chance we should look at taking... if we have to give up, or pay more, i say forget it..
Scouting and medical would have to be involved to see how risky that is.. if less risky, price goes up...
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 4:04 pm Post subject:
if pavano doesn't cost any real talent or any real money, by all means, i think the team should take a shot at him. it's a lottery ticket. most likely, it doesn't pay off, and we're out a couple bucks and some crappy minor leaguer. but if it pays off, we've got a guy who put up a 137 era+ just a few years ago.
i do think the yankees realize that there's no happy ending to the pavano story in nyc. his teammates hate him, the media hates him. his best shot to get healthy is to do it on another team. he knows it, cashman knows it -- i could see them trading him for shit.
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Hank, you're dead to me.
no thanks!!!!
he is one big wet, well you know..............
he missed time cause he had a bruse on his ASS............
no thanks
Well, that line of thinking is exactly why he could be available for very little...
the upside is that he is a cheap serviceable pitcher (there was some scouting or analysis or whatever that a bunch of teams did back when he signed that said he was worth being the top pitcher available that offseason)
We are talking about getting him for basically nothing: If AZ were to give up anything of value, or not get much $ from NY, than im right with you. But if the price is right, why not take a shot (if all medical stuff comes back with a reasonably positive outlook on recovery)
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2507
Location: Gold Canyon
Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 6:45 pm Post subject:
qudjy1 wrote:
Quote:
no thanks!!!!
he is one big wet, well you know..............
he missed time cause he had a bruse on his ASS............
no thanks
Well, that line of thinking is exactly why he could be available for very little...
the upside is that he is a cheap serviceable pitcher (there was some scouting or analysis or whatever that a bunch of teams did back when he signed that said he was worth being the top pitcher available that offseason)
We are talking about getting him for basically nothing: If AZ were to give up anything of value, or not get much $ from NY, than im right with you. But if the price is right, why not take a shot (if all medical stuff comes back with a reasonably positive outlook on recovery)
My apologies if THIS ARTICLE has already been discussed and I missed it, but it seems pertinent to this topic. Since it's an article on FA's, Carl Pavano isn't discussed but the risk/benefit assessment does carry over to Carl's situation.
Phil Rogers / ESPN.com wrote:
You can't be a general manager if you aren't something of a risk taker. The key is taking the right risks or, as one longtime scout suggests, "getting lucky" on the players you acquire.
Here's a breakdown of the risks presented by some high-profile, damaged-goods members of the current free-agent class:
Bring it on INF Nomar Garciaparra
Three of his last six seasons have been severely impacted by a variety of injuries, but he's somehow kept his career batting average at .318. He played in 122 games last season after the Dodgers shifted him to first base, logging his most games since he played 156 for Boston in 2003. The husband of soccer star Mia Hamm, Garciaparra is a fitness freak who should get healthier as he moves into his 30s, and away from the middle infield. Los Angeles has redoubled its efforts to keep him after J.D. Drew exercised an out clause in his contract. Garciaparra seems a better fit for the American League, where he can split his time between the field and designated hitter.
LHP Randy Wolf
With more than 11 wins only once in eight seasons, Wolf doesn't leap off the list of available pitchers. But there's more there than what the Philadelphia Phillies got from him in recent seasons, most likely because of elbow problems that were corrected with Tommy John surgery midway through 2005. He made 19 starts a year ago, including seven on a rehab assignment, and appears to have made a clean recovery. He could be a bargain for a National League team, and the Phillies will almost certainly regret it if he gets away.
OF Luis Gonzalez
In a limited role, Gonzalez could be useful. He turns 40 in September but has kept himself in good shape, battling through recent elbow injuries to maintain a streak of having played at least 105 games in 16 consecutive seasons. He's had more walks than strikeouts in five of the last six years, and hit at least 15 home runs for nine years in a row (including that crazy-high total of 57 in 2001, when he helped Arizona win the World Series). It might be time for him to add first base to his bag of tricks or move to the AL, but he's a good bet to help someone.
Cross your fingers OF J.D. Drew
When Drew exercised an out clause in Los Angeles, he became one of the most dynamic hitters on the market. But this is a guy who has never played more than 146 games in a season, and managed more than 135 only twice in his eight-year career. He's a solid right fielder and could play anywhere in the outfield, especially at a small park like Wrigley Field. His left-handed bat would balance the right-leaning Cubs, but there's a reason he will find himself with his fourth team in five years.
LHP Mark Mulder
Shoulder surgeries are always tricky, and several teams are scared by how poorly Mulder was pitching before going under the knife last season (6-7, 7.14 ERA). But don't overlook Mulder's 88-40 record from 2001 through '05, including a 16-8 season after being traded from Oakland to St. Louis. According to some scouts, the big thing in Mulder's favor is that he is a superior athlete for a pitcher. He also possesses a strong mind. He may never again string together complete games, as he did for the Athletics early in his career, but any team bold enough to sign him to a multiyear contract (even one and an option) could be rewarded in a big way once he is on track.
RHP Adam Eaton
Long one of the biggest teases in baseball, Eaton was never right in 2006 after taking a grounder off his hand in spring training. The reports on his health are good, even if teams no longer look at him to be a No. 2 or 3 starter. He probably needs to return to the NL, but has an unusually fresh arm for a free-agent pitcher.
RHP Kip Wells
Like Eaton, Wells was a major disappointment for Rangers rookie general manager Jon Daniels. He made only two starts after being acquired in a deadline trade from Pittsburgh. He had some soreness in his shoulder, but the bigger problem was a foot issue, which required surgery. He has received a clean bill of health and will be determined to get back to being a dependable starter, as he was in Pittsburgh from 2002 through '04.
DH Frank Thomas
Hard to believe Oakland allowed Thomas to reach the free-agent market after what he delivered in 2006, but he and Beane could not agree on his value. Texas is among the teams that are considering taking him away from the Athletics. He's only 13 homers short of 500, and is still one of the best designated hitters in the game if he's healthy. He seems to have turned a page in his conditioning program, but he always looks like he's one trip from first to third away from landing on the DL.
Asking for trouble RHP Kerry Wood
Jim Hendry says Wood ignored a lot of interest from other teams to re-sign with the Cubs, but nobody was going to count on a guy with his history of arm injuries. He's less of a risk slotted into the bullpen than the rotation, but don't expect the new role to be a miracle cure. He's still dealing with the same pitching coach (Larry Rothschild) and medical staff that have failed to keep him on the mound since 2003, when Dusty Baker rode him and Mark Prior like rented mules.
OF Cliff Floyd
An aging disappointment, health always seems an issue for Floyd. He teased the New York Mets with a 150-game performance in 2005 but was back down to 97 games last season. He's considered a power-hitting outfielder but has generated 20 homers only once in the last four years.
OF Moises Alou
Felipe's son turned 40 in July, which dates us all a bit. He can still hit, but the decline could be fast for a guy who is a ballplayer, not a specimen. His at-bats total has declined two years in a row, and he's delivered 100 RBI only once in the last five years. He could benefit from a move to the American League or as a platoon player in the NL.
Wasting a uniform OF Barry Bonds
Amazingly, he led the NL in walks while playing only 130 games last season. But his injuries and day-to-day questions about availability reduce his pursuit of Henry Aaron's record to a distasteful sideshow. He tried hard to fit in as a teammate in San Francisco last year, but he's never going to be one of the fellows. Factor in the legal cloud over his head and a possible suspension after MLB's steroids committee issues its findings, and you've got the best hitter nobody wants.
CL Eric Gagne
Remember him? Arguably the best reliever from 2002 through '04, the guy's a physical wreck. He had Tommy John surgery years ago but has continued to have elbow problems, leading to two surgeries to remove a nerve, and then added back surgery to his list of procedures over the summer. The Los Angeles Dodgers cut ties with him, and he's attempting a comeback as a setup man. The Rangers are among the teams with at least some interest in him, but the odds of him holding together for 50 appearances are huge.
Randy Wolf = Bring it on
Mark Mulder = Cross your fingers
I understand why you dont like these moves.. they are risky, but what do you see as the alternative? What should AZ do this offseason?
Personally I would sacrifice this off-season for the benefit of future seasons. This team isn't going anywhere next year and throwing the bulk of this 10 million available to a middle of the rotation guy is rather pointless.
Take this 10 million available and either invest it into debt relief or save it up for another off-season to aid the team in going after a front line starter when they are close to or already contending.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 7:55 pm Post subject:
we've got to get some innings pitched by the starting rotation. last year, outside of webb, nobody regulary made it out of the 5th/6th inning. hence, the bullpen asploded.
whether or not we're getting guys for "the run" that begins next year, we still need to get guys to pitch every fifth day, and save the bullpen by throwing up a decent amount of innings while keeping the team in the game.
i think we're all in agreement that livan, wolf, etc aren't good bets to start playoff games, necessarily. but we need to survive 07, and we need an actual starting rotation to do that. and, if wolf rebounds strongly (a maybe), THEN he's a decent guy for a playoff rotation.
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Hank, you're dead to me.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2507
Location: Gold Canyon
Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 7:59 pm Post subject:
McCray wrote:
we've got to get some innings pitched by the starting rotation. last year, outside of webb, nobody regulary made it out of the 5th/6th inning. hence, the bullpen asploded.
whether or not we're getting guys for "the run" that begins next year, we still need to get guys to pitch every fifth day, and save the bullpen by throwing up a decent amount of innings while keeping the team in the game.
i think we're all in agreement that livan, wolf, etc aren't good bets to start playoff games, necessarily. but we need to survive 07, and we need an actual starting rotation to do that. and, if wolf rebounds strongly (a maybe), THEN he's a decent guy for a playoff rotation.
Agreed, McCray.
And FWIW, now that I've re-read the above article, I do recall Phil's ridiculous assessment of Mulder including his emphasis on Mark's W/L record and on his "strong mind."
I understand why you dont like these moves.. they are risky, but what do you see as the alternative? What should AZ do this offseason?
Personally I would sacrifice this off-season for the benefit of future seasons. This team isn't going anywhere next year and throwing the bulk of this 10 million available to a middle of the rotation guy is rather pointless.
Take this 10 million available and either invest it into debt relief or save it up for another off-season to aid the team in going after a front line starter when they are close to or already contending.
There a lot of reasons why this thinking is wrong. I'll let shoewiz tackle the hit to attendance that the dbacks will further endure if they suck next year.
Looking to 2007, which are the frontline starters that you see becoming available? Which can't miss pitchers will be there for the taking that you just can't wait to get your hands on? And if one does become available, do you think $10m saved this year would actually make a difference? Or a big difference? Not to mention that Byrnes isn't the GM to throw a shitload of money to one "star"...
Spreading the money around on TWO cheaper guys like Wolf is a lot more effective than blowing it on one overrated guy like Schmidt or Zito. Especially when the difference between Zito and Wolf in terms of overall production won't nearly compensate for the difference in salary. The reality is, Zito isn't much different from Wolf in terms of UPSIDE; the main difference is Zito has been healthy, Wolf has had a TJ surgery. And Zito will cost you 5 years and $75m; Wolf you might get for 3 years and 21m.
Finally, what makes you think that the 2007 Dbacks won't be close to contending? Their 2006 pythag was 80 wins. Their rotation sucked beyond Webb and occasional Batista good start; their bullpen was pretty good but had a lot of ups and downs. A solid rotation and a healthy bullpen (which is what I'm sure Byrnes is trying to accomplish) could put this team in the 85 wins range next year. Especially if he can upgrade in LF with a more impact bat.
85 wins in the NL west may win you the division... and if anything, it would make you a real contender. What WON'T make you a contender is a B.S. strategy of staffing your rotation with left overs like Vargas again, or by having too high hopes for Enrique or Edgar. Both of them will have better days ahead of them, but next year they should be fighting for the #5 spot in the rotation. In fact, Enrique should probably be in the pen; I like Edgar's chances of succeeding as a starter a lot more.
The Dbacks will be contenders next year... and they could very easily win the NL west. The only reason they won't win it is if Josh Byrnes started thinking like some of the posters here...
I agree totally with Levski, first we can't go into the season without a shot at being competitive or, like mentioned, the attendance dies and thus goes future years budgets and we end up trying to win it all in 08 with a budget under 50MM <not happening>.
Next, our lineup has the potential next year to really do some damage. With a little luck we could have one of the top offenses in the League.
Lastly, with Webb & Livan eating up innings and a hopeful acquisition, our bullpen should do quite nicely.
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