Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 859
Location: Tucson, AZ until 3/6... then back to San Francisco
Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:11 pm Post subject:
I'd take a chance on Wolf. He just had his TJ surgery in 2005. 2006 is a recovery year. 2007, better than ever form. Makes sense to me.
I'd stay away from Ohka. Far, far away. I don't even understand why they're even considering him. ARI already has a half-dozen guys that can pitch circles around him.
Am I missing something here? Someone tell me how Ohka could possibly be a good idea.
_________________ Oops in the 2 hole!
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 65
Location: Stirling, Scotland
Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:18 pm Post subject:
I know Tomo Ohka hasn't been mentioned much, but i'd like to throw a few questions out there. Before I start I would like to point out that im not really that fond of the idea of bringing him in, don't see him as an improvement over Miggy so why bother. His terrible average number of starts in the past 3 seasons is worrying to say the least. Is there any reason for this?
Ohka's last 3 seasons he has started 15, 22, and 18 last year. Whats his deal? Injury prone? Classed as a 6th/spot starter? I know he had rotator cuff surgery that shelved him last season, was it this injury that limited his starts the last 2 years? Help on this would be appreciated folks, not too clued up on him to be honest.
Also, if we ended up going for Wolf at say a 3/$21, would that spell the end of Byrnes and Co's search for starting pitching this year? I would certainly hope not, to me Wolf isn't the guy that will drastically improve our rotation over 2006. But thats maybe just me living in a dream land hoping to snag a true front of the rotation starter through a trade .
Ohka hasn't been particularly durable, plus his walks were up and his strike outs were down last year. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Still, when he was good last year (about 8-10 starts out of eighteen), he was usually very good. Historically, he's been a GB pitcher, though the last few years he's about as neutral as they come.
Everything you'd want to know about Ohka here and here
I'm sort of hoping the opposite, that they don't go after a front line pitcher via trade <unless they can get one for Estrada & Byrnes, which they can't>.
I would rather wait until next year and see how deep our pitching is and address it then. We don't have the resources to be a WS team in 07 barring a miracle, but we do have a little more flexibility in 08.
Right now, over 90 percent of professional pitcher who have TJ surgery come back just as strong as before, and most of them are stronger and have even better mechanics thatn before.
Link please?????
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I think you're letting your opinions get in the way of real life facts. As usual
WTF??? Wheres the emoticon????
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Why is that? The Mets just gave El Duque 12m/2 years, or $6m/year. If that's your barometer, Wolf at $21m/3 years is a bargain. Especially since guys like Padilla and Meche and Suppan will get $36m/4 years on average
Tulip Mania
David Gassko (who writes for the Hardball Times and posts on primer as DSG) has done some research on it; he has also written an article for the 2006 Hardball Times book (which I recommend). He had a write up recently with the key summary... but I've read this elsewhere too. The Gassko study will be the most comprehensive to date.
Emoticon? I thought you could sense I was joking without emoticons. Geez.
Ah, that's what he meant. I knew it as the Tulip Bubble... Something was lost in translation...
It's just another ponzi scheme... like gold or diamonds. Something is only valuable because people have decided that it's valuable... and you have someone propagating the myth while raking in the dough...
Baseball's "Tulip Mania" (learn something new every day) explained
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Switching gears, let's talk about the current free agent market. In 2004, players who weren't yet eligible for arbitration (rookies and sophomores, essentially) contributed 1,720 Win Shares to their teams. In 2006, that same classification of players contributed 2,669 Win Shares. That's 1,000 more Win Shares from players making the minimum. Thanks to arbitration, these stars are going to remain relatively inexpensive for the next several years.
At the same time, teams aren't lowering their salary budgets. If anything, they're increasing their salary budgets, thanks to the fine season that just concluded (record-setting attendance) and the cash inflow from Major League Baseball Advanced Media.
See what's happening? Combine more production from inexpensive players with more money to spend, and you have teams with blow-out free agent budgets. When you see a team pay over $50 million just for the right to negotiate with a (hopefully) ace starter, you know you're not in Kansas City anymore. Two things will result from this: free agent salaries will explode, and spending salary dollars wisely will be more important than ever. My advice to general managers is to make sure they really need that free agent they're negotiating with.
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 65
Location: Stirling, Scotland
Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:47 pm Post subject:
David B wrote:
Ohka hasn't been particularly durable, plus his walks were up and his strike outs were down last year. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Still, when he was good last year (about 8-10 starts out of eighteen), he was usually very good. Historically, he's been a GB pitcher, though the last few years he's about as neutral as they come.
Everything you'd want to know about Ohka here and here
Appreciated David B, i had never seen that site before so thanks for the hook up. The site backed up my initial feeling about him, should pass on him for sure.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3242
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:58 pm Post subject:
Quote:
David Gassko (who writes for the Hardball Times and posts on primer as DSG) has done some research on it; he has also written an article for the 2006 Hardball Times book (which I recommend). He had a write up recently with the key summary... but I've read this elsewhere too. The Gassko study will be the most comprehensive to date.
I just ordered THT annual,. but they don't ship till 11/30
I searched the site, but couldn't find the summary. If you happen to come across it, throw up a link
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Emoticon? I thought you could sense I was joking without emoticons. Geez.
I know, but think of the Children.
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What is Tulip Mania?!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
My weak reference to what is happening in the pitching market this year.
There are going to be ALOT of contracts that cause regret from this offseason.
Medically, most pitchers are ready to return to action in 12-15 months. Frequently, it's another year before they return to form.
"It takes a good two years to really have a good feel again," says Gordon, who struggled with tendinitis his first year back.
Orioles pitching coach Mark Wiley calls it getting the "feel of the ball." It's finding the arm slot, the release point, basically, learning how to pitch all over again. "They keep their heads above water and contribute ... but they're not as consistent" the first year back, Wiley says.
"We're doing now in a year basically what it takes us a whole lifetime to do (the first time)," adds Lieber, who is working at the Yankees' training complex in Tampa and hopes to join the team before the end of the season.
Like Wood, Gordon and Koch say they throw harder than before the surgery. Koch, typically in the high-90s, has hit 108 and 103, according to various reports.
A strengthened elbow probably helps. "Dr. Andrews said the tendon from my wrist was a lot longer than normal, so he was able to get an extra loop out of it in my elbow, making that new ligament extra thick," Koch says.
But it isn't the whole reason. Exercises to build the shoulder and forearm make the entire arm stronger. And sometimes, the patient simply matures physically.
The increased velocity "isn't always true by any stretch of the imagination," Andrews says. "For the ones that do it, the reason is all the hard work, all the throwing exercises and the development from all the exercises they'd probably never done before."
"I've seen guys come back better workers because now they've got a wake-up call," White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper says
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 36
Location: Portland, OR
Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 12:52 pm Post subject:
Some stuff from ESPN's Phil Rogers:
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LHP Randy Wolf
With more than 11 wins only once in eight seasons, Wolf doesn't leap off the list of available pitchers. But there's more there than what the Philadelphia Phillies got from him in recent seasons, most likely because of elbow problems that were corrected with Tommy John surgery midway through 2005. He made 19 starts a year ago, including seven on a rehab assignment, and appears to have made a clean recovery. He could be a bargain for a National League team, and the Phillies will almost certainly regret it if he gets away.
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LHP Mark Mulder
Shoulder surgeries are always tricky, and several teams are scared by how poorly Mulder was pitching before going under the knife last season (6-7, 7.14 ERA). But don't overlook Mulder's 88-40 record from 2001 through '05, including a 16-8 season after being traded from Oakland to St. Louis. According to some scouts, the big thing in Mulder's favor is that he is a superior athlete for a pitcher. He also possesses a strong mind. He may never again string together complete games, as he did for the Athletics early in his career, but any team bold enough to sign him to a multiyear contract (even one and an option) could be rewarded in a big way once he is on track.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3242
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 1:20 pm Post subject:
To expound further on the "we'll see" theme.....I was talking to a friend of mine, and he commented that the dbacks front office has probably done some sort of analysis on the recovery of tj patients and feel they have an undervalued pitcher in wolf
There is a ton of data to pour over as it relates to tj arms...most of which is not avl. to the public, ...doctor reports...trainer/training methods and reports...recovery analysis, etc etc.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:40 pm Post subject:
the more i think about this wolf deal, the more i like it. what little info i've been able to dig up on TJ survivors is all fairly positive and reassuring. and the FO must have researched the hell out of it, too. maybe TJ pitchers can become the OBP for the arizona version of moneyball -- a trait we look for and try to exploit.
i also like the deal more than a 1 yr incentive deal. on a 1 yr incentive deal, no pitcher in their right mind would put AZ at the top of their list. it's too much of an extreme hitter's park. but if this deal is really 3/21, then no matter how good he is next year, we still control him. and you can almost guarantee that 7M/yr will be underpaying him by the last year of that contract, right?
7M used to be an ace. then 8M bought you a mediocre pitcher. wolf has a very, very good shot at rebounding to become an above avg starter. the price for that might be up around 10M by the end of wolf's contract, probably more.
i'm really starting to like this deal. it's risky, but high risk deals like this are the ONLY way AZ can compete on the FA market, right?
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Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 36
Location: Portland, OR
Posted: Fri Nov 17, 2006 3:03 pm Post subject:
Keith Law's take:
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Wolf is intriguing as an upside play, especially in a world where Mark Mulder and his hip/back/shoulder problems are getting all sorts of attention as an upside play that's stunningly lacking in upside. (Seriously, the guy just had shoulder surgery, and he hasn't missed bats since 2002. He got a brief boost from moving to the weaker league and getting with Dave Duncan in '05, both of which go away if he goes to an AL team. If Mulder gets a guaranteed base of over $500,000, it's a bad investment.)
As for Wolf, his performance in 2006 was poor, but was also typical of a pitcher who came back quickly from Tommy John surgery. His stuff was fine, but his command and control were lousy. His fastball was largely 88-89 mph, touching 92, although it was somewhat straight. He has a plus-plus breaking ball, reminiscent of Zito's but with better depth, and he commands the pitch extremely well, throwing it for a strike when he needs to yet working it down or away to lefties when he's ahead in the count.
Even this year, Wolf was death on lefties, holding them to just three hits in 35 at-bats. He also has a circle-change in the low-80s that's a weapon for him against righties, but it doesn't offer much separation from his fastball, and it looks to me like righties can adjust to it too easily. Wolf also hides the ball well during his delivery, creating some deception that can help his fastball play up a tick.
There are question marks; it's not a guarantee that he'll regain the command and control he had before surgery, for one thing. He throws slightly across his body, which could be a harbinger of future arm issues. But it makes a lot more sense to go for an upside play like Wolf who's healthy now and who pitched at the end of the year, even if he costs you more up front, than to go for the guy with the chronic health condition and the inferior results.
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 666
Location: worm factory
Posted: Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:16 am Post subject:
qudjy1 wrote:
Circle change rules the world, right dangerfield?
Ask this year's al cy, and a the nl runner-up who has a pretty good change in his own right. Thrown a little funky, but gets the job done.
Holy cow, Law's take is hyperbole at its finest that I can appreciate. Even I'm scared we if don't sign him now. Wolf's price tag must be soaring. The depth of his curve is a good as Zito's. Uh-huh. Shirley ,he can't be serious?
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He throws slightly across his body, which could be a harbinger of future arm issues. But it makes a lot more sense to go for an upside play like Wolf who's healthy now and who pitched at the end of the year, even if he costs you more up front, than to go for the guy with the chronic health condition and the inferior results.
That's a circular logic paragraph, in my own diction.
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