Diamondbacks Bullpen

[levski]

No word on whether Scully will be approached as well...

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=78260

[stu]

here is the basis for the similarity scores (quoted from baseball reference and produced by Sean Foreman)

Similarity Scores
Similarity scores are not my concept. Bill James introduced them nearly 15 years ago, and I lifted his methodology from his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.

Batters
One point for each difference of 20 games played.
One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
One point for each difference of 15 hits.
One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
One point for each difference of 4 triples.
One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
One point for each difference of 25 walks.
One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.
To this there is a positional adjustment. Each position has a value, and you subtract the difference between the two players position. James just uses primary position, but I computed an average position for players who had more than one primary position. (See Ernie Banks)

240 - Catcher
168 - Shortstop
132 - Second Base
84 - Third Base
48 - Outfield (James distinguishes, but I don't have that data incorporated at the moment)
12 - First Base
0 - DH
Pitchers
Start with a thousand and then subtract the following deductions.
One point for each difference of 1 win.
One point for each difference of 2 losses.
One point for each difference of .002 in winning percentage (max 100 points).
One point for each difference of .02 in ERA (max 100 points).
One point for each difference of 10 games pitched.
One point for each difference of 20 starts.
One point for each difference of 20 complete games.
One point for each difference of 50 innings pitched.
One point for each difference of 50 hits allowed.
One point for each difference of 30 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 10 walks.
One point for each difference of 5 shutouts.
One point for each difference of 3 saves.
If they throw with a different hand and are starters subtract 10, relievers 25. For relievers you half the winning percentage penalty and the winning percentage penalty can up to 1.5 times the wins and losses penalty. Relievers are defined as more relief appearances than starts and less than 4.00 innings per appearance.

I plugged all this into my database, to create the lists you see on the player pages. Note that a player must have 100 innings pitched or 300 at bats before being considered and to be truly accurate you need to look at whole careers, but it is fun to speculate all the same.

Age Based Similarity Scores
These values are computed in the exact same manner as the above manner. However, instead of comparing an active player's career to the entire career of retired players, we only compare the active player's career to the retired player's career when they were the same age as the active player. This gives more interesting lists for the active players because we get an idea of what path the player is taking.

This doesn't mean that Vladimir Guerrero was as valuable as Willie Mays over his first three seasons - just that their numbers are similar. The league's offensive levels and defensive value affect those measurements.

Age Path Similar Players
I've then gone through and for each season a player played computed who was the most similar player at that point in his career. I only have room to show the most similar player, but it can show players who peaked at early or late ages. Ruben Sierra comes to mind.

I think they are more fun than conclusive evidence. Like all stats, they need to be evaluated. The use I see is that it gives the casual fan like me alist of players who may be similar to the player you are looking at. If you see similar physical characteristics or other things you might consider the comp to be worth while. If you don't, it was fun to think about those old guys.


Plus remember a few years ago when six degress from Babe Ruth was sweeping the nation. The object was to get from Babe Ruth through similarity scores in 6 clicks or the fewest won. You can obviously do that with any player.

How many clicks from Willis to Ruth?

[allstar]

I see Mulder as the next Chris Carpenter type of guy who will turn out pretty nicely. I really hope we sign him and I'm sure he'll sign due to his desire of being in Arizona and the front office wanting him.
_________________
Too many girls out there to choose from. Just too many. lol.

[shoewizard]

I would be shocked if Josh offers anything more than a low priced, incentive laden contract. If he offered any kind of serious money on a multi year deal, I would fall out of my chair and prostrate myself on the ground,.

My guess is that most teams will offer those type of Carpenter/Lieber deals with some heavy incentives, and it would be mildly surprising if Mulder chose the D Backs over other teams offering the same thing.

[shoewizard]

Great summary of both the usefulness and entertainment value of similarity scores Stu. I concur.

[B. O. N. D.]

[levski]

[levski]

[stu]

Thanks, shoe. Lev, I am usually a typing disaster not a posting disaster. I did screw up here. The mods can move it if they want.

I got from Willis to Ruth in 10 clicks.

Edit make that 11 clicks

[stu]

I did not count clicking on the comparable stats links as a click.

[stu]

The Gonzo to the Cards sounds like Gonzo's agent giving some bs to the writer. My guess is that the Dbacks asked Gonzo or if his agent if he would consider a trade to the Cards and that is the basis for this.

My guess is also that the Cards might have taken him if the Dbacks paid his salary and just wanted a bucket of balls.

Gonzo is going into the no good deed goes unpunished. Management could have traded for the bucket of ball and paid his salary to someone. They could have waited until the end of year to announce he wasn't coming back. Instead they gave him his day in the sun and Gonzo and the fans pissed on them. Gonzo continues to do so.

I won't boo Gozno when he returns (he played too well for us for that), but I am not going to cheer him either.

[stu]

Do the Olson twins count as one or two?

[McCray]

i guess what worries me about mulder is the timeline. let's say we sign him for a year, incentive laden deal. how long until he pitches again, with his rotator cuff thingy? and once he starts pitching, how long until his mechanical issues (mainly: sucking) are corrected and he can once again dominate?

and at that point, is that the end of the season? does he bolt for greener pastures somewhere else?

oh, and thanks for posting the value of sim scores for me, stu. no need to move it to the other thread. i'm probably the only guy on this board who doesn't know that shit. but i'm learning.

so... just to see if i got it right... sim scores are a fun little toy, but not really a predictive value. they tell you the similarities between what has happened for player A and what has happened for player B, but it can't help with what player A is going to do, even if A and B are similar thus far and B did some weird shit at the end?

did that make any sense at all?
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.

[moviegeekjn]

[levski]

[kris]

There are 8 teams inerested in signing Mulder. That number might grow.
I guess we might have to offer a 2 year incentive ladden contract, just like the one, Boston gave it to David Wells.

Year one, he might not play for a long time. When he starts pitching, he might struggle. So realistically, it will be year 2, when we can expect him being healthy and effective.

I am sure lot of teams will offer him 2 year deals. But the tie-breaker might be, AZ being his home, i hope he chooses D-backs.

What if some other teams offer multiyear contract (> 2 years)?
I doubt that.

[djwhite2]

"OF Grady Sizemore led the majors with 92 extra-base hits, the most by a leadoff hitter dating to 1957. He also led the AL in runs (134), doubles (53) and finished in the Top 10 in hits (190) and total bases (349). He's also the first player in league history with 50 doubles, 10 triples, 20 homers and 20 steals and the first Indians player since Joe Carter (1989) to play in all 162 games. "I had some success here and there," the ever-humble Sizemore said. "But as a whole, I can still improve on a lot of things." CBS Sportsline. (Updated 10/02/2006).

Gonzo is in the early stages of dementia...

[levski]

You do realize that Gonzo didn't say that about Sizemore, I did? I was channeling Gonzo's comments from last spring when he claimed the Dbacks could put 20 rookies in LF and he'd out hit them all...
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.

And Tony Pena cuts in line...

[moviegeekjn]

[TAP]

[shoewizard]

I think we just stumbled on a new nickname for Levski.

From now on I'm calling him "House"

[lee mellon]

MLB.com was saying that he wont even be able to throw a pitch until March and probably wont play in a game until late April or May. I could be wrong, of course, but I didn't interpret Byrnes' promises for a front-line starter to mean for a fraction of the season. Mulder should be treated as a leper until they install a series of circuitry and robotic limbs that can bring him back to '00-'04 form.

p.s. i've finally been called up! hooray!

[levski]

gilbert ponders the mulder question

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061106&content_id=1735250&vkey=news_ari&fext=.jsp&c_id=ari

[ncdbackfan]

Some Dback fans from my neck of the woods (Gastonia, NC and Summerville, SC) asking questions in the new mailbag. I like it.