Diamondbacks Bullpen

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/2006_national_league_gold_gloves_as_i_see_it/

Eric Byrnes was AZ's best defender in 2006. Methinks that helps explain why our pitching wasn't too hot... even though, for all honesty, aside from Green in RF, the rest of our defense wasn't horrible.

[edit]

looking at the defensive numbers for the marlins and braves, I think it's pretty obvious that a) Willis's bad year was due to the huge degradation in defense on the infield; and that b) Tim Hudson would do a lot better, imho, if he actually had infielders who could field the ball. The Giles-Renteria-Jones troika was horrible... probably only the Marlins were worse.
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Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.

And Tony Pena cuts in line...

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:12 am Post subject:

Levski, how definitive and accurate do you feel Dial's work with Zone Rating is?

You seem to feel it's pretty much the best tool out there in public to evaluate defense. At least I am getting that impression. Is this true?

The reason I ask is because according to his work, Tracy and Jackson are both league average, and Hudson and Drew are both well below league average.

Also, if Hudson is really below league average with the glove, and basically a 95-100 OPS+ hitter, why the heck would they want to sign him to a multi year deal?

I know for certain Josh Byrnes doesn't buy Zone Rating and Dials work. He said so during the Q&A in August.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

Hey, another data point.

Plenty of people don't buy ZR and Dial's work.

I'm willing to entertain all fielding systems, but I don't endorse any.
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.

And Tony Pena cuts in line...

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:19 am Post subject:

Here is Another Data Point

Exact opposite to Zone Rating. Go figure. Confused

lee mellon · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:20 am Post subject:

It's a little funny that Chad Tracy was higher on the 3b list than Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, David Wright and Miguel Cabrera. How many people on this board and others have been calling for a Tracy trade and possible Ramirez signing or Cabrera trade. They're all bad ideas. Keep Tracy.

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:29 am Post subject:

The problem I am having is that this Zone rating based metric is basically telling me the exact opposite to what everyone who filled out a ballot is saying....

and no...I didn't fill out all 18 ballots...LOL

eh....group think at it's worst I guess.

Oden · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:37 pm Post subject:

See the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball. Zone ratings be damned!
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McCray · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:15 pm Post subject:

snyder at +11 makes sense. i think he's great behind the plate.

estrada at +3 confuses me a little. i think he was a kinda sucky catcher. bad at controlling the running game, bad at blocking pitches in the dirt, bad at calling games. i don't think he's be double digit negative, but i could see him around a -4 or -5.

jackson at 0? heh, maybe, i guess. i like the kid, but i still figured he'd be a touch negative. maybe his late season improvements on d were better than i'd thought.

hudson at -4 confuses me a little, too. i thought he'd be around 0. he makes some amazing plays, but spaces some of the small ones.

tracy isn't 0. no way, no how. i like the kid, but he was negative... by a ways.

counsell, +8. yeah, okay. i wouldn't have guessed that high, not at ss. maybe last year at 2b. but okay. i didn't see drew on the list...

gonzo, +2. what sport are these guys watching?! my faith in baseball is being shaken here...

green, -6. okay, i feel better.

byrnes, +11. oi? that means byrnes is between CARLOS FREAKING BELTRAN and MIKE FREAKING CAMERON on defense? ummm..... no.

seriously, how do they get these numbers? i feel like fox mulder here. i want a defensive metric that makes sense. i read that list, and, and ... i wanted to believe. but i just can't.
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shoewizard · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 5:19 pm Post subject:

McCray · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 6:05 pm Post subject:

thanks shoe. that actually sort of makes sense. sort of. i guess i don't see anything wrong with the formula (though you guys are surely more qualified than i to evaluate it), so i guess i'd wonder about the building blocks of the formula. seems odd that it doesn't include assists or put outs, and it's heavily dependent then on ZR, if i'm reading this all correctly.

so... (i know i'll regret this)... how does ZR work?
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Hank, you're dead to me.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

the problem with fielding stats is: garbage in, garbage out.

since most of the fielding stats input is proprietary or screwy, you are left with very little recourse. you can do one of two things:

a) believe all systems, and just average shit out
b) believe no system, and just piss against the wind
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.

And Tony Pena cuts in line...

Oden · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 6:24 pm Post subject:

I don't think trusting my own eyes is pissing into the wind. If it was, I'd say Hudson was a great defender. Smile

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moviegeekjn · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:15 pm Post subject:

Oden · Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:24 pm Post subject:

Good thing we're not on tellevision. We're 2 for 7 in no-no's in this thread.

Too bad the Vikings ARE on tellevision. I wouldn't be posting if it were a close game.
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