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Dylan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 235
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 Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:50 pm Post subject: 2007 Dylan projections |
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So, here are my 2007 projections. I thought I'd do a with Park Factor and without. Maybe add to the discussion and fun of it all:
Without
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Tracy 500 43 82 17 144 32 2 3 0.288 0.350 0.462 0.812
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Clark 500 50 146 32 122 24 1 0 0.244 0.319 0.488 0.807
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Quentin 500 58 85 20 126 32 4 7 0.252 0.337 0.452 0.789
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Hairston 500 46 127 24 127 24 5 4 0.254 0.323 0.466 0.789
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Drew 500 46 102 18 132 26 7 5 0.264 0.332 0.452 0.784
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Jackson 500 64 79 13 134 33 2 3 0.268 0.358 0.420 0.778
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Hudson 500 46 79 12 137 28 6 7 0.274 0.341 0.426 0.767
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Byrnes 500 38 87 18 128 32 4 14 0.256 0.313 0.444 0.757
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Young 500 62 147 22 110 32 3 22 0.220 0.314 0.428 0.742
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DaVanon 500 74 94 10 128 22 5 23 0.256 0.360 0.380 0.740
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Estrada 500 28 57 10 141 33 0 0 0.282 0.324 0.408 0.732
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Hammock 500 33 100 17 122 27 3 4 0.244 0.295 0.412 0.707
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Snyder 500 57 121 15 116 26 0 1 0.232 0.318 0.374 0.692
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Callaspo 500 38 32 6 123 21 5 9 0.246 0.304 0.344 0.648
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Montero 500 35 103 17 111 21 1 3 0.222 0.278 0.370 0.648
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Total 7500 718 1441 251 1901 413 48 105 0.253 0.319 0.422 0.740
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With
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Clark 500 51 146 37 128 26 2 0 0.256 0.331 0.538 0.869
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Tracy 500 44 82 19 148 33 3 3 0.296 0.358 0.488 0.846
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Quentin 500 59 85 23 131 33 6 7 0.262 0.347 0.490 0.837
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Hairston 500 47 127 27 132 24 7 4 0.264 0.333 0.502 0.835
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Drew 500 47 102 20 136 26 11 5 0.272 0.340 0.488 0.828
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Jackson 500 66 79 15 138 35 3 3 0.276 0.368 0.448 0.816
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Hudson 500 47 79 14 141 28 9 7 0.282 0.349 0.458 0.807
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Byrnes 500 38 87 21 133 32 5 14 0.266 0.323 0.476 0.799
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Young 500 63 147 25 114 32 4 22 0.228 0.322 0.458 0.780
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DaVanon 500 76 94 12 132 22 7 23 0.264 0.369 0.408 0.777
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Estrada 500 29 57 12 145 36 0 0 0.290 0.333 0.434 0.767
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Hammock 500 33 100 20 127 28 4 4 0.254 0.304 0.446 0.750
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Snyder 500 59 121 17 119 28 1 1 0.238 0.326 0.400 0.726
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Montero 500 36 103 19 115 22 2 3 0.230 0.287 0.396 0.683
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Callaspo 500 39 32 7 127 21 7 9 0.254 0.313 0.366 0.679
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Total 7500 734 1441 288 1966 426 71 105 0.262 0.328 0.453 0.781
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baldmaga
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 491
Location: Louisiana
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:37 am Post subject: |
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| Not to discredit your projections...but if Tony Clark has 30+ HR's again...I'll run down the street naked with a Dodgers cap covering my hiney. |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1763
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:41 am Post subject: |
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| baldmaga wrote: |
| Not to discredit your projections...but if Tony Clark has 30+ HR's again...I'll run down the street naked with a Dodgers cap covering my hiney. |
If Clark does get 500 at bats next year, he stands a good chance of hitting 30 homers. That would mean that he would be actually healthy enough to play full time, and the guy does have hacktastic power.
Dylan doesn't project playing time.
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
And Tony Pena cuts in line...
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1763
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:43 am Post subject: |
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shoewiz must be thrilled that chad tracy, his all time favoritest player on the dbacks, is projected to be az's best hitter next year...
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
And Tony Pena cuts in line... |
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matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1748
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:33 am Post subject: |
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| huh, it makes you wonder that if Jackson gets traded, a clark/carter platoon might not be too bad. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:01 am Post subject: |
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I think that 2007 is just a very very tough year to project because there are so many young players that could go either way. My guess is that you will see several players outperform those projections by very wide margins, and several underperform the projections by very wide margins.....but the total avg will be about right. This is usually the case, but I think it will be somewhat more extreme in 2007
The team had a .755 OPS last year, and Dylans park adjusted team ops is projected to be .781
That would be a HUGE jump in offensive output. It would also be close to leading the league.
League average OPS in 2006 was .761
Leaders:
Ph .794
Atl .792
LA .780
NY .779
So if the D backs pull off a .781, I will be extremely happy.
Sometime before spring training, I'll take a stab at projecting playing time, and apply it to Dylans projections. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:05 am Post subject: |
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Dylan, can you give us projections for the following guys:
Chris Carter
Brian Barden
Juan Brito
If they are not traded, all stand a decent chance of getting some playing time if there are injuries.
Thanks |
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Dylan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 235
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:17 am Post subject: |
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The spereadsheet is at work, so I'll get to Carter, Barden, and Brito Monday.
Couple of things: Clarks HR total for non park factor is about the same as what he did in 2004 with the NYY. Clark will never get 500 ABs though. He can't take that much.
Secondly, that .740 or .781 team OPS isn't exact since the team won't get 7500 ABs and the distribution of who those go to will affect it. Also, those 2006 league leaders shoe quoted counted the hundreds on ABs the pitchers gave their team. I don't project pitchers, but we're almost sure they'd pull the team OPS down. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:35 pm Post subject: |
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oops....forgot about the pitchers.... 
I realize the distribution of AB will affect things greatly. Thats why I said I would apply playing time projections to your numbers once we know the roster makeup.
When I did a quick glance before running out the door this morning, I figured Tony Clarks projection and Montero/Callaspo's projection would likely offset each other a bit, since I don't expect any of those 3 to have more than 250 AB's. |
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dirtygary
Everyday Player
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 903
Location: Phoenix
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| Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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I'll be shocked if TC is back with us next year.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun |
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Dylan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 235
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| Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 9:17 am Post subject: |
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Carter, Barden, and Brito:
With
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Carter 500 60 85 23 123 24 3 5 0.246 0.334 0.444 0.778
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Barden 500 32 129 14 128 30 6 5 0.256 0.305 0.424 0.729
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Brito 500 33 116 13 114 20 0 1 0.228 0.280 0.346 0.626
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Without
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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Carter 500 58 85 20 118 23 2 5 0.236 0.322 0.410 0.732
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Barden 500 31 129 12 124 30 4 5 0.248 0.296 0.396 0.692
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Brito 500 32 116 11 110 18 0 1 0.220 0.271 0.322 0.593
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Player AB BB K HR H 2B 3B SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 9:20 am Post subject: |
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| Ouch.....Jackson, Tracy, and the Catchers better stay healthy this year...LOL |
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