Diamondbacks Bullpen

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I just went back at cappys numbers again... yeah.. hes been pretty darn good since being in MILW...

Shoe / stu / others: im interested in hearing your opinions on the "peripherals" point on having a HR hitter in the linup.. Who offers more protection, a HR hitter with an ops of 850, or a doubles hitter with an ops of 850...

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:41 pm Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:44 pm Post subject:

I have no idea what the stats say, but there have to be mental effects on the pitcher knowing he's facing a more "dangerous" hitter next.

One example is Chris Duncan. That guy isn't that good or fast. But he's getting fat pitches cuz Pujols can put it out. If there was a doubles hitter behind him, they wouldn't be afraid of him getting on base and scoring by way of the following batter. So maybe he's seeing more first-pitch fastballs than he would if somebody like Gonzo and their fifty doubles was behind him.
_________________
The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

But that HR hitter is more likely to make an out than a doubles hitter... For every HR he hits, an overbay would make a single AND a double...

Pujols vs GOnzo is really a terrible example.. thats the best hitter in the game... there is a HUGE difference between thier OPS..

find 2 guys with similar OPS, then compare...

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

Who protects better?

________BA__OBP_SLG_OPS_HR__K
Player 1: .309 .379 .527 ..906 32 132
Player 2: .343 .417 .483 ..900 14 102

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:17 pm Post subject:

All things being equal, (which they never are) usually a guy that hits more homers is going to "protect better" in the psychological sense...although there are exceptions of course. (Think Edgar Martinez of the Mariners...not a big HR hitter, but just about the most feared hitter in the majors with runners on base)

But as I said, things are never equal. Usually you have to pay a premium for those homeruns. And the amount that protection may or may not increase the productivity of the other hitters would not outweigh a large disparity in the salary.

Simply put.....Overbay at 350,000 vs. Sexson at 12 million saves 11.65 million, money that can be used to upgrade another position in the order where a team is not even getting league avg. production, or of course go towards pitching.

That far far outweights any "protection" value.

McCray · Posted: Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:20 pm Post subject:

who's behind the guys who are doing the protecting? a pitcher isn't just thinking about that single batter (though they'll claim they are) -- they're thinking about that whole lineup. personally, i don't buy the idea of protection for a single batter as much as i do for a lineup. a batter doesn't protect -- a lineup 1-8/9 does.

that's what made the red sox so good during their recent run -- they really had no easy out in that lineup. so you couldn't be too fine, or pitch around anyone. 'cause the next bat would kill you for it.

i don't see that with pujols and the cards this year. they're stacked at the top of the lineup, but weak enough you'll get out of trouble at the bottom.

i don't know if any of that made sense. i took percocet a little bit ago. things are fuzzy.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

Most people who have looked at the protection issue have concluded there is either no such thing or that it varies some much that you can't accurately predict if a player is going to "protect" a player or not. This may be one of those issues where the fog is obscuring the real facts. Dylan is one of the leading experts on this so I will defer to him.

Short answer is that I think the answer is neither.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:27 pm Post subject: