Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:51 pm Post subject:
dammit, shoewizard, we need you!
okay, here's what i found:
his k/9 has been dropping the last 3 yrs: 8.91, 5.76, 5.68
his h/9 has been rising during the same span: 8.39, 8.88, 9.60
hr/9 fluctuates. 1.22 in 04, down to 1.03 in 05, back up to 1.38 in 06.
era the last 3 yrs: 4.46 (w/ chw), 3.87, and back to 4.65 in 06. the sub-4 looks like an outlier.
gb/fb sucks.
bb/9 is the only area i see where he's getting better. neat. he's walking less, but giving up more hits, more hr, and k'ing less.
and, as was mentioned, his avg allowed, obp allowed, and slg allowed are all rising.
i say pass. some team is going to remember his 05 and give him money. let's pray it isn't us. this guy seems like miguel batista. but he'll get more money.
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Hank, you're dead to me.
206 IP, 4.59 ERA, 17 quality starts ( and just missed 2 more by 1/3 of an inning ) in a hitters park is not too shabby for a #4.
He was working from the pen last year and did a really good job adjusting back to a full time starter.
With improved team D next year, I don't see any reason why he can't duplicate or better his numbers from this year.
It seems that when he got into trouble it was due to getting the ball up in the zone. Many times he was able to make in game adjustments to cure the elevation issue.
$5-6 Mil would be a reasonable payday for 1 or 2 years.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3242
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:56 am Post subject:
ALL pitchers that don't throw 97MPH four seamers get hurt "up in the zone"
Miggy's biggest problem was command. He fell behind in the count too much and had to come in fat with get me over strikes, and of course his walks came in bunches.
How many times would we see Miguel cruising along, and then all of a sudden just LOSE IT, in every way imagineable....totally losing command, giving up hits, then walking 2, maybe even tossing in his own fielding error.
When he managed to avoid those total brain fart innings, he was usually pretty effective.
Miguel still throws 94 , and he has a number of pitches he can throw for strikes......but I really believe that the organization got about as much as they can reasonably be expected to get out of him this year.
I definitely can't imagine him being BETTER next year than this year, and even have a hard time imagining the SAME level of production. I think he gets worse.
But then Levski would probably say I just have no imagination.
Miggy is far from an ace but with Webby, Livan, Mr. X ( I'm kinda liking the Padilla idea ) and Miggy all capable of 200 IP it sure puts much less reliance on a shaky pen.
But then Levski would probably say I just have no imagination.
Levski would take a contrarian position to yours just for the rhetorical exercise and humor. Youse guys' "arguments" always make provocative and entertaining reads!
But then Levski would probably say I just have no imagination.
Levski would take a contrarian position to yours just for the rhetorical exercise and humor. Youse guys' "arguments" always make provocative and entertaining reads!
Actually, I agree with shoewiz. Batista is far more likely to be worse (maybe a lot worse) next year than improve.
I'd only consider keeping him if he'd hang around for one year at a team friendly rate, which he certainly won't do.
As a "buy low" throw in for Glaus, Miggy certainly was very useful this year.
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Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 10:36 am Post subject:
he used to throw his cutter in any count, IIRC. or maybe it wasn't a genuine cutter, but it had the motion of one. whatever. now he doesn't throw it unless he's ahead in the count, and i can't remember the last time i saw him throw it for a strike to the black.
and i do believe that was his "out pitch" we just saw die before us this year, folks. he's toast. he's going to implode next year. no k's, lotsa walks, no out pitch... toast toast toast.
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Hank, you're dead to me.
and i do believe that was his "out pitch" we just saw die before us this year, folks. he's toast. he's going to implode next year. no k's, lotsa walks, no out pitch... toast toast toast.
It would be a complete shock in Byrnes re-signs Miggy. He's going to want way too much and Byrnes has to know that Miggy's not worth the price some idiot team will be willing to offer.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3242
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 10:57 am Post subject:
Quote:
As a "buy low" throw in for Glaus, Miggy certainly was very useful this year.
Really this is the crux of the matter.
I think my early feelings about Miggy were really of the "I'm disappointed the rotation won't be better in 2006" variety.
The fanboy in me wants to win every year, no matter what....even though the rational side of me understands the need to avoid selling out the future to win now.
When you said Miggy could give us what Javy gave us in 2005, that of course was a reasonable projection, and slightly better than what I was expecting. But the point is Javy was barely league average in 2005, and the realization that our NUMBER 2 starter was going to be barely league average had me disappointed from the get go.
Miggy's 2006 season would have been an excellent season for a number 3 or 4 starter on a pennant contendor. A team like the D Backs never had a chance with Miggy as the #2.
So my problem is not really Miggy, but the role he was asked to fulfill.
Thats nobody's fault, least of all Miggy's. He was a gamer and went out and did his best every game. I admire him. But if I seemed sour on him...that is the reason why.
And props to Josh Byrnes for bringing him in, as you say, as a buy low candidate to eat some innings. 2006 would have been ALOT worse without him, and a collection of rookies taking up those 200 innings.
Exactly. If Miggie was our #4, we'd kick ass, but not as a #2. He's already peaked, and would be too expensive for a team that is not going to contend for the Division. My problem isn't with him or his prouction this year, either. Aside from Webb, Miggie was the one of the few other bright spots on the pitching side.
Bottom line is another team wll be willing to go 3 yrs or more $ than we should, so he's going to to be gone. Padilla would be a much better option for us at the 3-4 yr deal, with the same, maybe slightly higher salary.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun
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