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Doug Davis -- 3 years for approximately $22M
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TAP
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:01 pm    Post subject: Doug Davis -- 3 years for approximately $22M Reply with quote

Just signed according to Gambo and Ash
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:06 pm    Post subject: Re: Doug Davis -- 3 years for approximately $22M Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
Just signed according to Gambo and Ash


If this happens to be one of the times when G&A get it right, those sound like good numbers to me...
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tmar
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow, if we got Davis for those $$ I say we start building the J. Byrnes statue now.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If that is correct, I bet it is backloaded so at least 16 million is paid over 2008-2009.

I doubt they pay him more than 6 in 2007.
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tmar
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The rumor has made it to foxsports
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misterx
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

very nice
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Tucson DBacks Fan
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0118davis-ON-CR.html Looks like Gambo and Ash were right. Even the blind squirrel finds an acorn eventually.
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levski
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

very nice, jbyrnes.

hey, didn't i say that az would do well to sign him for 3 years and something between 21 and 24m (i.e., 7 to 8m/year)? why am I not working for josh byrnes? right, they won't pay me enough... Wink
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Davis gets $5.5 million this year, $7.75 million in 2008 and $8.75 million in 2009.



link
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matt
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow, that is a great deal.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
very nice, jbyrnes.

hey, didn't i say that az would do well to sign him for 3 years and something between 21 and 24m (i.e., 7 to 8m/year)? why am I not working for josh byrnes? right, they won't pay me enough... Wink


In this market, this is an excellent contract for the D Backs.,

It's hard to believe that Davis would not have done MUCH better if he waited until next year to become a FA.

Well.....there is alot to be said for security. It's still alot of dough re mi
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ncdbackfan
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice work JByrnes. Nice work.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Effing kickass. That's a great contract for us.
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David B
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Either Davis has the worst agent in mlb history, or he really wants to play in the desert. This isn't a "hometown discount"...it's a total cave in.

From the Fox Sports article...

Davis is 62-63 lifetime with a 4.35 ERA, numbers comparable to that of Cubs left-hander Ted Lilly, who is 59-58 with a 4.60 ERA.

Lilly, also, 31, signed a four-year, $40 million free-agent contract with the Cubs earlier this off-season.
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stu
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish I knew why Davis pitched so poorly last year. I know his walks went up and his k's went down, but why? Was he hurt? Just a flukeish type year. James ERC has him about .5 runs lower in that than era.

James also has his injury risk as high. He has pitched over 200 innings three years in a row. He will 31 I think. He should be good for another three years if last year was not injury caused.

Overall I like it and I assume the Dbacks scouted him and have a good feel for his future.

I would not have said this about the olde regime. Remember the Joe Jr. when he was suspicious that the Braves wanted to trade a pitcher so he sent a scout to actually look at him.
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matt
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
Either Davis has the worst agent in mlb history, or he really wants to play in the desert. This isn't a "hometown discount"...it's a total cave in.


It is quite confusing. The most he will make is $8.75M. That isn't much more than what he though he deserved this year and he won't even get that for two more years.

The same goes for Webb and to some extent Randy Johnson.
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dahlian
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

David B wrote:
Either Davis has the worst agent in mlb history, or he really wants to play in the desert. This isn't a "hometown discount"...it's a total cave in.


I guess Davis is also worried about his declining numbers last year. Hope this isn't a "cash in while I can still put up an era below Jose Lima's" contract.


Last edited by dahlian on Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:50 am; edited 1 time in total
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Ryan
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
I wish I knew why Davis pitched so poorly last year.


Without any numbers as concrete evidence (no doubt one of the experts on the board will swoop in and help out here Smile), I can tell you from careful observation (read: he was on my fantasy team and I have the DirecTV baseball package), that the Brewer defense SUCKED last year behind him.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ryan wrote:
stu wrote:
I wish I knew why Davis pitched so poorly last year.

Without any numbers as concrete evidence, I can tell you from careful observation that the Brewer defense SUCKED last year behind him.

The Brewers' defensive efficiency (the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense) was 8th out of 16 in the NL and 14th out of 30 in all of MLB. Top half in both.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But the DER for Davis when he pitched was only .698, which was the lowest of any Milwaukee starter except for Sheets.

Without question, Davis MUST reduce his walks next year. I don't think anyone will argue that. And I definitely don't expect a sub 4 ERA from him. His FIP was 4.43, but his Xfip was 4.91, same as his ERA. So while there is some reason to think he might have been a bit unlucky, he certainly was not extremely so. He more or less earned his 4.91 ERA last year.

However, as long as he is not hurt, and the scouting reports are positive with regards to his stuff, there is no reason he can't improve on last year....and in fact he should. My projections have him at 4.46 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 204 innings.

I noted Stu's comment above about James, and Davis's injury probability. It certainly gave me pause to contemplate that. We tend to look at the fact that he has gone over 200 innings 3 years in a row as a positive, but lets hope he is not worn down.

There is a nagging feeling that maybe he accepted this deal because he himself is not confident he will have a good enough season in 2007 to command "Ted Lilly Money" next year. That would kind of suck.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
But the DER for Davis when he pitched was only .698, which was the lowest of any Milwaukee starter except for Sheets.

The Brewers were .694 for all starters combined throughout '06.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oops...my bad....where did you find the breakdown for the team by starter and by reliever?

I was looking at the main guys....

Capuano .705 (221 Inn)
Davis .698 (203 Inn)
Bush .718 (210 Inn)
Ohka .730 (ohka 97 Inn)
Sheets .671 (Sheets 106 Inn)

Nobody else on the team had more than 50 innings as a starter.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Oops...my bad....where did you find the breakdown for the team by starter and by reliever?

I was looking at the main guys....

Capuano .705 (221 Inn)
Davis .698 (203 Inn)
Bush .718 (210 Inn)
Ohka .730 (ohka 97 Inn)
Sheets .671 (Sheets 106 Inn)

Nobody else on the team had more than 50 innings as a starter.

I'm still looking for the by-starter breakdown. All I have is the team-as-a-whole result, which includes relievers as well.
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tmar
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The old regime like buying pitchers coming off of their sole good year in their history. I like the idea of buying low on a pitcher coming off of his sole bad year <in his last 4 years at least>.

At an average cost of 7.5MM/yr he'll be a bargain even if he only meets Shoe's progrections.
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TAP
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tmar wrote:
...he'll be a bargain even if he only meets Shoe's progrections.

tmar, have you ever seen shoe's progrections? Not a pretty sight and definitely not something we want Doug visualizing as he takes the mound for Arizona! Wink
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