D-Backs, Davis are far apart
Multiyear agreement could break stalemate
Nick Piecoro
The Arizona Republic
Jan. 17, 2007 12:00 AM
Left-hander Doug Davis and the Diamondbacks are more than $2 million apart in proposals for a 2007 salary, but General Manager Josh Byrnes is hopeful an agreement will come in the form of a multiyear deal.
"We had positive discussions about a multiyear," Byrnes said. "Hopefully, that could be the resolution."
Davis, acquired by the Diamondbacks in November in a six-player trade that sent Johnny Estrada to Milwaukee, is arbitration eligible and could become a free agent after this season.
He and outfielder Eric Byrnes are the club's only two remaining arbitration eligible players after second baseman Orlando Hudson, closer Jose Valverde and reliever Brandon Lyon agreed to terms this week.
The club exchanged proposed salaries with Byrnes and Davis.
According to the Associated Press, Davis is seeking $7.5 million and was offered $5.25 million, and Byrnes asked for $5 million and was offered $4.25 million.
Signing Davis long-term would give the team additional stability in the rotation as Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson are the only starters signed beyond this season.
Davis posted ERAs of 3.39 and 3.84 in 2004 and 2005 before slipping to 4.91 last season, though he still managed to work more than 200 innings for the third consecutive year.
Talks with Eric Byrnes remain focused on a one-year commitment. He, too, will be eligible for free agency after this season.
If agreements cannot be reached with Davis and Byrnes, the cases will go to arbitration next month.
Hudson will get $3.9 million this season, Valverde $2 million and Lyon $1.5 million
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:14 am Post subject: Re: DBacks Davis Far Apart
Dan wrote:
Left-hander Doug Davis and the Diamondbacks are more than $2 million apart in proposals for a 2007 salary, but General Manager Josh Byrnes is hopeful an agreement will come in the form of a multiyear deal.
"We had positive discussions about a multiyear," Byrnes said. "Hopefully, that could be the resolution."
That's what I thought was the most likely course of action once the Dbacks acquired Davis. I was hoping they'd sign him to a 3 year, 21m deal, but then the pitching market exploded. If they could get him to the Adam Eaton special (3 yrs, 24m) or something close, the team should certainly do it.
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Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 8:34 am Post subject:
Would you go higher than 3/24? Because I seriously doubt that is enough to get it done.
I think if Davis signs a multi year deal, he and his agent will ask for 3 years beyond 2007, so IOW through 2010.
They might get 2007 for about 6 million, then 2008-2010 would probably cost at least 9 million a year, or 3/27. His agent would be a fool to accept less than that, because certainly he can do that well, unless he absolutely sucks in 2007 or gets hurt.
If they fail to reach agreement on a multi year, and they just sign him for one year, and he manages another 200 innings at something approximating league avg. ERA, certainly he will get more than 3/24 after 2007 season.
Another thought: It would be kinda nasty at this point of they DON"T reach agreement on a multi year deal and end up in arbitration. If that were the case, then I would hope Davis wins, because I would not want him pitching with a pissy attitude because he got beat in arbitration by the team.
Very true. Nobody wants a pitcher who's pissed about his $$. Do we have the flexibility to pay Davis $9M/yr for '08-'10? I thought he was about $7M/yr quality, but I guess that got bumped up this off-season. We have to ask whether he'll be a good deal at $9M/yr for '08-'10, or whether he might be somebody that we can replace from within.
I say we offer him $24M ($7M, $8M, & $9M) for '07-'09, with a club option for '10 at $10M.
If the cost gets higher than that, I would rather see the club use that $8-10M towards landing a Zambrano, $20M/yr, type of pitcher that is a CY candidate and bringing up a home-grown product for the other spot.
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Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:53 am Post subject:
dirtygary wrote:
If the cost gets higher than that, I would rather see the club use that $8-10M towards landing a Zambrano, $20M/yr, type of pitcher that is a CY candidate and bringing up a home-grown product for the other spot.
I used to feel the same way. But those types of pitchers are extremely rare, almost never hitting the open market. If he did hit the market I guarantee whatever we were willing to pay him the Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox would be willing to pay more. To get a pitcher like that we need to either 1) develop him (Webb) or 2) hope the pitcher has an AZ connection and wants to pitch here (Johnson and Schilling). Otherwise it's tough to compete.
I remember a couple of seasons back targeting next offseason as the year we acquire all of our pitching. Roy Haliday and Oswalt, Zambrano, etc were all going to hit the market. Well the two Roys are locked and I'll be very suprised if Zambrano isn't by that time.
Considering the market and the scarcity of aces, I think Josh Byrnes has tackled the building of the pitching staff very nicely.
To answer Dirtygary's question, yes we have budget money in 08-10 to take on a contract for Davis. My rough calculations for next year leaves us about 18MM or so.
If we got Davis for 6MM in 07 and 9MM in 08-10, I would say that was a great deal. I'd still be happy if it was 10MM/yr in 08-10.
What kind of salary is Jake Westbrook going to command, about the same? Roughly $10M/yr? If so, then I think his periph's suit us better over the long run, and he should be the primary target.
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I would think that Westbrook would be more expensive but not by much. Given the market though, I'd be happy grabbing what we can secure now vs going to battle next year and hoping to score a deal on a quality pitcher <along with 29 other clubs>.
Also, if we go with Callaspo at 2B next year we'd likely have enough money to get both Davis and Westbrook if they were in the 10-11MM/yr range.
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Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:07 pm Post subject:
I don't think the market will be as ridiculous next off-season once teams see how much they blew this winter for a relatively small amount of talent. As such, I think you need to balance the potential rise in Davis' stock versus the chance that his current value deflates due to changing market conditions. I believe Davis is around a $9-10 million per year player in the current market (above Eaton, but below Padilla), and would probably be a $7-9 million player if he has a normal 2007 (i.e. no significant injuries, no falling off a cliff, and not a Cy Young contender) and the market plays out the way I expect it to.
If I were to offer him a deal, it would probably be in the 3/21 range, and I'd be willing to give him up to 3/25. I doubt I would give him a fourth year (or an option for the fourth year, unless there was a small buyout), because most of his comparables were already out of the majors by age 34. If he doesn't accept these terms and walks next off-season, then I'd happily take the two 1st round draft picks.
Note: After thinking about this, I'm starting to doubt he'd be in the top 20%, so he might only yield a second round pick. I would probably still take the pick considering he will be in his age 32 season in 2008.
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