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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
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 Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Well...sure.....If I had sold shares in my betting stub. Not too late for that...LOL |
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rgndvo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 131
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| DesertKnight wrote: |
| rgndvo wrote: |
| I will say though that I went through this same process last year at this time on much more of a macro level (I basically took runs per game by team A, ERA of starter for team B and randomly generated a run total for each matchup) and <b>I had pretty good results overall</b>. |
I've never been a fan of season predictions this specific, because there are just too many variables to consider. And I respectfully have to disagree that your predictions for last year were "pretty good." Eleven of the teams were off by more than 8 games (which is, granted, an arbitrary cut off), and eight were off by 10 or more. If we look at an over/under split, 14 were off by more than 5, and only 16 were off by 5 or less. The average error is 6.23 games. I just don't see how this is "pretty good" accuracy.
I'm not trying to denigrate your efforts, rgndvo--I just don't think it's possible to accurately predict a season with reasonable accuracy because there are simply too many variables to consider, and not all of them can be defined statistically. Of course, I seem to recall that some people told Bill James something similar, so if you do develop an accurate system, I'll be the first to use it to place bets in Vegas, and I might even give you a cut!
It just seems that any prognosticator using last year's W/L records and a gut feeling about offseason transactions could be just as accurate.
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When I said I did pretty well, I mean more compared to what is really plausible. If you can go 23-5-2 against the vegas line I think thats pretty good as that is a pretty valuable figure of merit to shoot for based on what the public thinks of each teams chances. Id also say that these picks put me at 194 out of 898 in BPro's predictatron last year. Moreover, the model I used last year was much, much more limited than the model Im using now.
Again though, I think the value is more in looking at the idea that if the teams play out the season with the stats that are estimated, what distribution of wins can be expected? I know for a fact that if the diamondbacks play perfectly they can get maybe 120 wins and if they play horribly they can win maybe 40 games and any number in between is possible. If enrique goes out and wins the cy young next year of course the dbacks would likely gain 10 or so wins from where they are set to but if you need a model to tell you that its possible that things go right and the team wins 110 games, then youre being unrealistic. This is just really for comparisons sake. If the team the dbacks have assembled right now performs the way Zips projects, I think they will end up a few games below .500. Take that for what its worth I guess.
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rgndvo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 131
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
I have 200 down at 75-1 for the D backs to win it all, including World Series.
35-1 to win the NL is probably a better bet. |
I dont know, if the dbacks make it through the NL, I would hope theyd have about a 50:50 shot at winning the series.... which is essentially the same as going from 35:1 to 75:1
The best bet is to keep your $200 though me thinks.... 
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3241
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Of course....it's one of those stupid bets you make because it would be so much fun to win....and because you are drunk and in Las Vegas....LOL |
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rgndvo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 131
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:12 am Post subject: |
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| when I was feeling rather daring a few months back I put $3 on the bulls to win it all and $14 on the bulls to win the east winning $100 each if they come through. Maybe I should have tried adding alcohol to the equation. |
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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 159
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:16 am Post subject: |
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Gambling is how I became I fan off the diamondbacks. I made 400 bucks off the dbacks in 2001, gambling with my friends, knowing that if i lost, i wouldn't be able to pay the bet.
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-Zephon |
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tmar
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1184
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:24 am Post subject: |
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Business gambling is what got me into the DBacks. I've never been a fan of any sport without a vested interest. Once I bought the bar I became instantly interested in the DBacks.
Over the years, through the patiences of many posters, I've become at least knowledgeable enough about the sport to see through the surface stats.
I remember 5 years ago thinking I was pretty smart when I first grasped the logic that working the pitch count was a good thing. |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1763
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:24 am Post subject: |
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| Zephon wrote: |
| Gambling is how I became I fan off the diamondbacks. I made 400 bucks off the dbacks in 2001, gambling with my friends, knowing that if i lost, i wouldn't be able to pay the bet. |
I'd stay out of casinos and other gambling establishments if I were you.
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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 159
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: |
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Lol. After BK's meltdowns, I decided to never make a bet like that again. But what can i say, it was a damned good hunch.
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XB3
Journeyman
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 369
Location: Free Scott Hairston!
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Zephon wrote: |
| Lol. After BK's meltdowns, I decided to never make a bet like that again. But what can i say, it was a damned good hunch. |
Where gambling is concerned, nothing is better than taking money from Yankee fans.
Last edited by XB3 on Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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rgndvo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 131
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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Using shoe's predictions, the model gained one win, to 76.7 wins.
min preds - 58 W, 597 Runs For, 634 Runs Against
Avg preds - 76.7 W, 694.9 Runs For, 721.1 Runs Against
Max preds - 93 W, 780 Runs for, 801 Runs Against
 [/list] |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1763
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| rgndvo wrote: |
Using shoe's predictions, the model gained one win, to 76.7 wins.
min preds - 58 W, 597 Runs For, 634 Runs Against
Avg preds - 76.7 W, 694.9 Runs For, 721.1 Runs Against
Max preds - 93 W, 780 Runs for, 801 Runs Against
[/list] |
Interestingly, not even one season where the team scores 800 runs... We all know that's because we'll have Eric Byrnes as out #4 hitter 
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