Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard

The purpose of these discussion series and polls will be to get a read from the board members what they think about the prospects of each individual player for 2007.

For hitters, the gauge will simply be OPS, up or down. For pitchers, the gauge will be ERA, up or down.

I am not looking for detailed projections, although feel free to post whatever data and projections you like to support your up or down vote. Scouting/Observation based reasoning behind the up or down predictions are just as valid as stat based predictions. I want to hear from everyone.

For the players who split time between the majors and minors, or different levels in the minors, I am using a Composite of their MLE's as available on Minor Leauge Splits , and their major league numbers.

Please vote in the poll first, and then please post whatever comments you would like to support your vote. I will cut and paste this message at the beginning of each player thread, so any newbies will be familiar with what we are doing.

The first player I'll post will be Chris Snyder.

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 12:59 pm Post subject:

I'll go first with my reasoning for my "down" vote.

I think his OPS will be down a bit, but not by alot. I just figure he will get at least 100 more plate apperances than he had in 2006, and the additional time behind the plate will wear him down a bit more, and level off his numbers.

In my mind Snyder is a 750-775 OPS guy right now. His upside is 800-825, and he is probably still a year or two away from realizing that.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

I took the under. Snyder played a bit above his head last year from what I surmise.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I say slightly up. My reasoning.

1. Number of ABs - i see what shoe is saying about the "wear-down" factor, but i think more abs should help. I dont think they will let Montero waste away on the bench. Snyder posted the stats above based on 184 ABs. Players GENERALLY fare better with regular PT. I think this is no different in this case - esp if they play montero a good deal.

2. Pitching Matchups - Opponents Quality Average - Something i found at BP. Using thier data, i just created a CSV file, created an OPS column, and ranked all of the ML players according to strength of opponent. The pitchers Snyder faced tallied a .750. NL average was .778. In other words, he faced pitchers who were stonger (on average) than the rest of the league.

3. Splits - Snyder posted an .803 OPS against RHers in 119 ABs, and a .718 against LHers in 65 ABs. I certainly think he can improve against LHers, if he can have that kind of success against Rhers.

4. This is his 3rd year - hes starting to enter the wheel house of his career... (Ok - this one is fluffy)

All that being said, i dont think he will turn into Barry bonds either... My prediction - 785-795

misterx · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:17 pm Post subject:

i voted up because im hoping with more ab's if will figure things out
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DBACKSHEELSPANTHS · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:28 pm Post subject:

I'd say up...i agree that the more ABs will help now that he has a little time under his belt.
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Oden · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:31 pm Post subject:

I'll post my knee-jerk reaction before I read anyone else's posts. I really don't see it going up a lot, but I'll say it'll go up slightly. He should see more playing time, but I expect to see his extra base hits rise a little bit. His comfort level with pitchers in the majors shouldn't prevent him from being a most every day catcher now. Not to mention that his OPS could go up just from platooning alone.
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McCray · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:36 pm Post subject:

i say up, but slightly. he has a great eye, and i don't think he'll be overexposed with more ABs. the org isn't going to dick around with montero. they'll both get a lot of ABs. and i really like snyder's eye, he's got a good obp, and over the course of last year, he started to (at least to me) look like he was swinging the bat a little different. his swing is definitely a lot more compact and less looping than it was early on.
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qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

Zips 2007 projection not giving Snyder any love

matt · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 4:29 pm Post subject:

Up, just a little

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 4:57 pm Post subject:

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

dbacks08 · A-Ball Kid Joined: 14 Dec 2006 Posts: 22

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:54 am Post subject:

Voted down only because I think Snyder benefitted from matchups with Estrada last yr, and he won't have as many situational advantages. But he'll still be solid, and good behind the plate.
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foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1358

My WAG is up slightly. I think that with a more compact swing, more PAs, and another year under his belt that his SLG % could increase a bit.

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

the org isn't going to dick around with montero.

Of course, we have said this about Jackson, Hairston and probably some other players.

I would say up if Snyder were going to be used intelligently, that is spot rest him on a regular basis. He needs ab's against the lower tier pitchers to keep his stroke in so you can't just play Montero against those guys. It really takes some skill and knowledge to pick and choose when to play guys like this.

I think the manager should have the best feel for this. This is one place I part ways with the Beane philosophy. I think the GM should have very limited input in the day to day decisions. The GM has enough on his plate. I don't think he can follow each individual player and their opponents on a day to day basis.

OTOH, I have no confidence in Melvin to to make the right choices. So I will go with down.

EvilJuan · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:24 pm Post subject:

Dangerfield · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:28 pm Post subject:

Stu, as usual you have it right, reading between your lines. This is one tough call, Personally, I think Snyder's a monster power bat 3 years. Which one to go with?
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