Diamondbacks Bullpen

[levski]

[Dylan]

[matt]

[qudjy1]

I guess my view is that, if Tracy is traded, i would hope there would be a FA solution at 3B that could work out... In other words..

Huff/Feliz/Ensberg at 6-8M per
and
Gorz - 300K?

would be better than

Tracy at 3M
and
FA pitcher at 10-12M or Enrique Gonzalez as our 3 pitcher


Tracy is easier to replace than young, cheap pitching...

I hope that makes sense..

That being said.. I would be much happier to see Byrnes traded...

[levski]

[tmar]

Would the pitchers we'd be getting from the Pirates be a lot better than what we can expect from the best of Nippert & the Gonz's?

[Projekt]

[qudjy1]

[shoewizard]

[qudjy1]

[shoewizard]

Just did some comparison shopping

[matt]

Ouch, and he will make a lot more than Tracy next year.

[dirtygary]

This is a pretty tough scenario for us. We have Tracy playing his 2nd best defensive position to allow Jackson to play the only position he can, but Jackson isn't nearly as good at 1B as Tracy is, and isn't good enough to handle 3rd, either. For all the talk about defensive inadequacies directed at Tracy, he's a far superior defensive player than Jackson is.

At the plate, Tracy has been a .300 hitter his entire life, with decent gap power and seems to be developing a HR stroke a bit. This past season was atrocious, but what if that was the growing pain he went through so he could eventually be a raging power hitter that rakes? He's always been a good contact hitter, and that doesn't just go away unless there's been a shift in approach.

I'd hate for us to trade Tracy, one of our own guys, at the lowest value of his career, and watch him turn into a +.290 ba, .875-.900 ops, 35 HR's, and 110 rbi's for Pittsburgh.

Also, and this was just a thought I had given the salary structure, etc. Does anybody else think that Tracy was "stickin with what got him there" until he got some real guaranteed money, and once that occurred he shifted his approach to be more power oriented to garner the bigger money at the next contractual step? It seems that this might actually be good for us - let Tracy work on being a power hitter for two years while we're rebuilding, then in '08 when we're making a push, Tracy is the three-eyed monster at the plate that we need.
_________________
The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

[shoewizard]

I think that Tracy made a conscious effort to hit with more power because

A.) After his 2005 season he felt he could

B.) When he looked around him in the lineup, and saw Glaus was gone, and Gonzo's stroke was going wimpy, he might be the only power source in the lineup.

I think this was his effort to "step up" and it backfired.

Tracy simply needs to stop trying to pull everything. He is not a real 35 homer guy. It's not impossible that he could develop into that.....sure....we have seen plenty of guys change their game. But after watching him for 3 seasons now I feel like I finally have a handle on who he is and what his upside is, and long term, it's just does not appear to me he is a .900 OPS guy. He looks and feels more like .850, with an occasional spike up near .900

Jackson got ALOT better at first over the course of the season, and is better than most people think. The gap between Tracy and Jackson at first base is not all that great.....and the value of that gap is even less.

Jackson is a better hitter than Tracy. I am 100% sure of it. He will probably post a superior OPS in 2007, and for sure, from 2008 onwards. And of course he will be cheaper longer.

Right now this team does not have an adequate replacement for Tracy at 3rd. If the D Backs could trade Byrnes or Estrada to Houston for Morgan Ensberg, AND they could get good pitching back for Tracy, that is something that might work.

Feliz and Huff are not good options, as they will be too expensive for the value they can bring. Feliz makes too many outs, and Huff is no better than Tracy at 3rd and will cost alot more.

My conclusion, despite all my bitching about Tracy's Defense and his strikeouts, is that they need to hold on to him, AND Jackson, and absolutely need to trade Byrnes for pitching, since we can replace Byrnes in LF much easier, and he is overated anyway.

[baldmaga]

[shoewizard]

Just to further illustrate how much better a hitter Jackson is than Tracy

Minors

Tracy 1327 AB, .853 OPS

Jackson 1074 AB 953 OPS

Thats 100 points of OPS difference.

Majors:

Tracy's Rookie season .750 OPS
Jackson's Rookie Season .805 OPS

Now of course Tracy had the big 2005 with the 912 OPS, but then he dropped all the way down to 778 in 2006. His career OPS to date is .818

He is better than his 2006, but not as good as his 2005. The real Chad Tracy is somewhere in between.

Jackson was better in the minors, better inhis rookie year, and we saw him really making the adjustments and feeling more and more comfortable as the season wound down.

As his power continues to develop, combined with his already superior on base skills, Jackson will be a much bigger threat to reach or even top .900 OPS in multiple seasons.

Now....I am off to the dentist.......lucky me

[Dangerfield]

[qudjy1]

[Dangerfield]

btw, before Ensberg or Huff, we should look at Hammock at third, who might be coming into his own power wise. He's always been a good athelete, and has soft hands, if this is going on.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

[TAP]

[tmar]

I was thinking about 3B replacements if they were to trade Tracy and looked briefly at Beltre and was a bit shocked to see how highly his defense was rated. I believe he finished 3rd on the GG rating.

I'm not suggesting that he's a possibility <he's owed 36MM over the next 3 years> but it was interesting to see how highly his D was rated.

[levski]

[shoewizard]

Beltre is a terrific defensive third baseman, but a really shitty hitter.

I was surprised to see Morgan Ensberg is going to be 31 next year. (At levski's prompting, I have been looking at him more lately)

[TAP]

[levski]