Diamondbacks Bullpen

[B. O. N. D.]

I guess I think higher of his control than you do, McCray. Did you see him just OWN Vizquiel last night?

Hopefully his breaking stuff will come along. But the way his fastballs move... jeez-louise. So many times the Gnats were just swinging through ghost balls.

I also think he'll grow more comfortably into his body frame...

I think of him as higher than a 4 or 5. I don't know how Arroyo gets away with his stuff. I think Edgar's got it better.

Your the pitching guru though. I wouldn't mind you explaining what you might see as potential negatives...? Just take it easy on my Edgar boner...
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Oops in the 2 hole!

[EvilJuan]

I don't know enough about stats to give a stat-guy kind of explanation. My statement that Edgar has earned a place in the '07 rotation is based on watching how his pitches have moved in his last two starts (and BOND's characterization of them as "ghost balls" is brilliant), and on the poise he shows on the mound. He doesn't seem to get rattled too often; and brings it to bear when he has to, such as after the double to open the seventh last night, and the subsequent loading of the bases.

He may, as some have said, only be a guy at the back of the rotation. Maybe so. Gotta have somebody to fill the #4 and #5 spots, right? I think Edgar will be a solid addition to the pitching staff, and I'd like to see him get a chance to prove it.
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Is It Next Season Yet?

[McCray]

okay, i'll be gentle to your edgar hardon.

the guy has good velocity. not great. and he's got a lot of pitches, but overall, my impression of his break has been that, again, it's good -- not great. and i think right now, he's looking better than he actually is.

first, he's a kid. there isn't much of a scouting report on him yet. he starts a game playing fastball and one off speed pitch, and as he works through the lineup, it seems he adds another pitch each time around. which is working for him now.

but to me, his fastball is readable. i can watch it really easily. the break is late but it's also pretty steady. teams are going to figure out how to hit his fb. that's inevitable.

and when that happens, he won't be able to hold off his offspeed variety as late in the game. by the second or third inning, all of his pitches are going to be exposed.

that means he'll be relying on his offspeed stuff, and while he's got a good mix of pitches, he doesn't have a killer pitch. he needs a pitch where, even if you know it's coming, you're still fucked.

he doesn't have that. as the scouting report on him grows, his repetoire of pitches will be less intimidating. he'll break them out sooner, and that means he won't be able to go as deep in games, or keep hitters guessing as long.

when he's on, and all four pitches can be thrown for strikes, and all of them are breaking well, he's going to pitch really really well.

but that won't be most games. he'll get hit.

my best case scenario for him is around a 4.25-4.50 era and 12 wins or so, maybe 14 in his career year. he's not going to be much more than a 4 or 5, but he does have a chance at maybe being a decent 3 in a great year IMO. right now, he looks good because he's new and because he was facing a lineup that's about 55 years old. he's not as bad as some have speculated he will be, but he's not as good as he's looked the last couple outings.

now, to protect your edgar hardon, think about this:

he has four average pitches. he has average control. what if, however, he starts messing around with his arm angle more. i REALLY liked how he dropped down to a sidearm for a while, and then back up. that's what reminded me of the arroyo comp. if this kid can start messing around with his delivery (provided it doesn't do any damage to his arm) he's going to REALLY have hitters guessing. will he throw it at 3/4? or sidearm? what if he can throw ALL his pitches from at least two arm angles? can you imagine a hitter trying to get a read on two angles, two approach paths, four pitches possible?

when i throw a fastball at my normal angle (sidearm) it breaks a lot (partly b/c my fastball is about 83 on a good day). i've been working for a while to get that break to stay when i throw at 3/4, too. if edgar can do that, he's going to be harder to read, and might go further. i'd love this kid to prove me wrong; he'd be a great story about how they fucked him up earlier, but showed patience and it payed off.

i don't think his upside is as high as enrique. enrique has more movement, and it's filthy. edgar doesn't have that. but he can work to improve the movement to slightly above average, or he can adjust his delivery so the average movement appears greater due to later break. or, fuck, add a fifth pitch and see what it does. something whacky, like a knuckler or a knuckle curve.

the mind is there. he's a competitor, that's for sure. and his stuff is there to be an average pitcher to slightly above average. his upside isn't that high, but it doesn't mean he can't be a hell of a #3 if he really works on that delivery and pitch repetoire.

arroyo, batista (earlier in his career) -- those are realistic goals for him from what i've seen. anything higher i doubt: his stuff just isn't there. but a LOT of pitchers get by without a lot of stuff. he's got the smarts, he's got the drive. he NEEDS to figure out a way over this offseason to confuse hitters more, and then i give him a definite chance in 07. i'm looking forward to seeing his stuff in spring training.

he's a keeper. but he's also a keep-your-fingers-crossed kind of keeper. and i'm far from a pitching expert -- so let's hope i'm wrong.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[B. O. N. D.]

Wow, McCray... thanks for the indepth analysis. Edgar boner still intact.

A couple things:

Have you noticed any changes/developments in his approach since being up with the club?

From what you've seen of Price and his work with the other pitchers, is he a guy that can hone Edgar?

If your're Josh Byrnes, to you go into 2007 with:

Webb
Hernandez
Enrique
Edgar
Cruz

... Owings and Nippert in the wings? Screw going for anything other than BP help?

And finally, say reaching full potential as a given, how would you rank Enrique, Owings, Nippert, Edgar?

It seems to me by 2008 we are going to have a glut of pretty damn good pitchers, Webb as a full blown ace, and a bunch of cash to get another ace.
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Oops in the 2 hole!

[qudjy1]

Too many erection references in this thread... im leaving...

kidding...

[McCray]

no problem, bond. i <heart> pitching. glad your boner survived.

<Have you noticed any changes/developments in his approach since being up with the club?>

are we talking about edgar 07 vs edgar 04? because if that's the case, i DEFINITELY see improvement. in 04 i actually attended three of his games, and had a pretty good view of the kid. he was terrified of the hitters. he was throwing to the outside edge of the black at all times, praying it was far enough away they wouldn't be able to get good wood on it.

edgar 07 throws it up there and says, "it's the best i got, do what you will." it's nice. the kid has more confidence and isn't afraid to come across the plate when he needs to. i think he needs to hit a few batters and own the inside half a little more, but i think that about everyone. (pitcher's motto: if they didn't want to get hit, they shouldn't have stood in the batter's box.)

since his first appearance and this one, i think he's holding off on his pitches more. he won't start an inning throwing everything up there but the kitchen sink anymore. he's pacing himself -- in terms of stamina and in terms of what he'll disclose. it's a smarter approach. for those of you DVR guys out there, if you have edgar's first start, look at how he's trying to keep the batter off balance by throwing it all, early on.

compare that to last night, where edgar would dip into his stash of extra pitches when he needed up, but held them back more so the midgets didn't see too much, too soon. it let him last a lot longer.

as the scouting report grows, he won't be able to do that as much, but this shows him making a smart decision about how to display his pitching -- it's a smart change in him that has happened this season.

<From what you've seen of Price and his work with the other pitchers, is he a guy that can hone Edgar?>

i want to say yes. when price came over, i was thrilled. but i've been rather underwhelmed by him this year. maybe it's just the bad lot of pitchers he got stuck with, or maybe it's that he's not that creative. i think with edgar, they need to get him to admit real fast he's not going to blaze a FB past anyone, and he's not going to leave jaws dropped with his change.

edgar needs to walk off the mound after a k with the hitter thinking, "i can't believe he threw that pitch in that count," NOT "i can't believe that changeup/fastball/curve." the latter just won't happen; not enough stuff. but if edgar is a smart cookie, and so far i'd say he seems like he is, he can throw junk or a fastball in any count with no real fear.

edgar's got to have complete faith in every pitch. i'd REALLY encourage him adding a fifth, too. a "lark" pitch -- once or twice a game, only. just something to keep in the hitter's heads.

and he's also GOT to find a way to neutralize lefties with hard swings. without looking him up, i'd guess lefties mash the kid. the break on his shit plus the variety, it's going to be hard for a rhb to get a good long swing on it. but a lefty's going to have a better eye on the pitch coming in. arm angle changes won't help him, there. he NEEDS a pitch that kills lefties with longer swings. right now, he doesn't have that.

i don't know if price is the guy to help him. i don't know if i can really evaluate price, given the crap that he had to work with this year. next year is price's real test.

<If your're Josh Byrnes, to you go into 2007 with:

Webb
Hernandez
Enrique
Edgar
Cruz

... Owings and Nippert in the wings? Screw going for anything other than BP help?>

i'd REALLY like to bump hernandez and everyone else down one notch -- get a solid #2 to help webb out. that's my bonderman hardon. but i doubt that happens. if byrnes can get this team a solid co-anchor to go with webb, i will name my first child josh byrnes. i'll build him a shrine. i don't see it happening, though, unless we open the pursestrings -- not on the cash, but the prospects. who do we have who is okay to trade away? i feel like they're my own kids, i'm so attached to them all. but we NEED to get better pitching if we're going to make a run for this, and that means we NEED to trade somebody. so... who?

doing that makes this the rotation:

webb
bonderman, pretty please
livan
edgar
enrique

i rank them that way because webb and bonderman will be pretty close in terms of success -- he's an ace waiting to happen. livan will eat innings and keep us in games, which is more than a lot of team's #3 guys do. edgar will be a pleasant surprise in the four spot. enrique is fifth, and skipped occasionally because he's more of a project than a starter at this point. his stuff is filthy; but can he harness that and pitch it?

<And finally, say reaching full potential as a given, how would you rank Enrique, Owings, Nippert, Edgar?>

full potential as a given, i'd put enrique at the top of the list (look at me, i have an enriqtion!), then owings, then nip, then edgar. but i'd think about flipping nip and owings. when nip's on, and his mechanics are solid, he'll be better probably, just because he can use that giant monster frame of his. owings doesn't have that. but owings is compact, and will have his mechanics sorted out a LOT more often than nip.

but now i'm rambling. the future is looking REALLY bright for this team, pitching and all. i can't wait.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[qudjy1]

Problem with bonderman is the price of acquiring him...

If the price is Tracy, callaspo, Montero or 3 other prospects, will that really be a good idea??

[McCray]

i'd do tracy and montero. i REALLY like callaspo. but i don't think they're going to want tracy. they already have the k's down pat on that team. they need obp and 1b. jackson.

what's a realistic trade? jackson and montero? is that still too much? what about jackson and nippert and a nothing prospect?

don't get me wrong: i think jackson ROCKS. but i just think bonderman ROCKS LOUDER. and, it gives BOND some new meaning for his name.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[qudjy1]

i dont think Jackson and Montero get it done.... basically Det can hold every team in the majors hostage, and demand the moon for a guy like bonderman.

For example... wont Det ask for a similar package to Dontrelle Willis? they wanted 3 A prospects....

[matt]

Florida can ask for that because Willis has the name recognition. Detroit can (and should) ask for a lot but it won't be the same as a Willis (even though they are both quite similar in results). I have a Jackson hardon but 1B is the easiest position to replace. At the same time, I don't want him to go at all. He's just now doing what we thought he could do.

[McCray]

jackson and montero are two blue chippers, nippert's something close. and nippert is fixable -- just this team can't seem to get his mechanics straight.

other teams laughed at loria for asking for three blue chippers. willis didn't get that, and neither will bonderman. but two and a quarter blue chippers -- that might be a maybe.

i wouldn't package owings. i'd swap the nippert with an edgar ... MAYBE.

this is tough for me. i'm also a tigers fan.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[matt]

I thought they were 'dead to you'

[B. O. N. D.]

I just don't see Josh partiing with Montero or Jackson, let alone both. No way. They've been hyped in the system too much and with Estrada out they're going to need Montero (who I like alot). And, man, I have a feeling Jackson is just starting... I think he's the real deal, 11 errors notwithstanding.

Besides, CoJack's the Diamondbacks pretty boy. What will all the girls do?

As much as I hate to say it, because I do not want to part with him, Callaspo will probably be the centerpiece of any trade.

AND if we go with the premise that Upton's upside is greater than Carlos Gonzalez, Callaspo and Gonzalez is starting to look like a nice package. Toss in Nippert... does that get it done?

BTW, thanks for the more indepth, McCray. Is it too late for Edgar's breaking stuff to grow/improve? I'm not to hip on pitcher's development... at a certain point is it just too late for some mechanics to move forward? I know it's possible to add new pitches... I'm talking about the basic basics.
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Oops in the 2 hole!

[McCray]

[McCray]

i don't see it happening either, but i'm praying for it. callaspo and gonzalez are nice, and a good package, but does it match up with detroit? they're in the win-now mode, so they're going to want young kids who are ready at the major league level, right? maybe callaspo and jackson? (also, i wanted to trade cargo earlier this week or last week, and lev advised me that he was the real deal. i think i stopped arguing with lev over stuff a year ago or so, when the score was 112 lev, 0 mccray. i'd still trade him, but only for something really good. and i don't think detroit will want to wait for him to put together a good k/bb)

<BTW, thanks for the more indepth, McCray. Is it too late for Edgar's breaking stuff to grow/improve? I'm not to hip on pitcher's development... at a certain point is it just too late for some mechanics to move forward? I know it's possible to add new pitches... I'm talking about the basic basics.>

it is possible. it's all in the last moment before the ball leaves your hand. which fingers are pushing on it? which directions are you pushing? do you pull one finger back just as you release? all those minor things change the flight of the ball. the trick to this is for edgar to play around in the offseason and come back with a new release style. it CAN be improved, but it's tough.

it's a lot like when i was working on my truck. i know shit about cars. so i'd add a piece, see what it did, and take it away if i didn't like what that piece did. it's a long, hard process. i think edgar's up to it, and i think he could add a little more break.

that said, i don't think he's able to add the killer movement that enrique has. you just have that or you don't. so edgar can improve, but the ceiling is still there. at least, that's my experience with pitchers/pitching.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[B. O. N. D.]

[matt]

Can Barden do more than play the corner IF positions? Our utility guy needs to be able to play 2B, SS, and 3B. Callaspo can play them all well. He's also younger and better than Barden. I don't know if Barden can beat out Hammock in versitality either. Hammock can play both corners plus the corner OF, and be 3rd catcher that is a good enough catcher to start.

[qudjy1]

apparently, callaspo has played some CF as well...

I would really hate to give up that guy...

[McCray]

i guess why i'd consider trading jackson is that tracy can slide to 1st and the d issues get better. also, we have a ready 3b in the minors. also, det is weak at 1b and obp -- they'd like jackson a lot.

if i had to pick between jacskon and callaspo, which to save, which to trade, i'd keep callaspo. i got a weird feeling about that kid. but i respect your equally weird feeling about letting cojack go.

callaspo. montero. nippert. that's a tough package to say goodbye to.

jackson. montero. nippert. that isn't any easier.

see, this is where we need shoewiz to come in and call us idiots and tell us what we're doing wrong. if we don't have this resolved by the time lev shows up, he's going to give us both pink slips.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[matt]

Are you considering Montero instead of Snyder because Montero would be a cheaper backup to Pudge? Becasue really, Snyder will be the better catcher next year than Montero. I like Snyder a lot but I think right now Snyder might be worth more in a trade (...waits to get bitchsmacked for that one).

Either way, they are both potential AS catchers. In keeping Snyder, you are better right now at a cost of needing a replacement 2 years sooner. Montero probably has a higher upside but he will take longer to reach his potential than Snyder. In exchange for waiting, we get two more years.

It's really hard to say this but what if we traded Snyder and kept Estrada for another year while we let Montero start the year in AAA?

[TAP]

[matt]

Him or a PV @ a low salary, but it's a backup catcher, who gives a fuck! Estrada can play everyday till the ASB before we ship his ass to Tampa Bay!

I'm high on Montero but I don't want him to go through what Snyder did in 2005. I'd also rather he got ABs on a regular basis in AAA than every 3rd day as the backup catcher.

[McCray]

i already had this talk with someone -- we don't need a PV catcher to back up snyder or estrada or whoever remains.

we have juan brito. we already started his clock, he's not a real prospect, and he's good defensively. bring him up again for a year.
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Hank, you're dead to me.