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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 427
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 Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 9:59 pm Post subject: Matsuzaka deal dead? |
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Looks like this deal is dead in the water. The only party that wins is the Yanks.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2692964 |
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foulpole
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:09 pm Post subject: Re: Matsuzaka deal dead? |
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| TSWINDERS wrote: |
| The only party that wins is the Yanks. |
If he never signs with the BoSox then he also never signs with the Yankees ( this year anyway ). I don't see how this would be considered a Yankee win.
Boston tied him up and no one else can sign him.
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misterx
MLB Rookie
Joined: 12 Nov 2006
Posts: 138
Location: do you really care
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:11 pm Post subject: Re: Matsuzaka deal dead? |
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| foulpole wrote: |
| TSWINDERS wrote: |
| The only party that wins is the Yanks. |
If he never signs with the BoSox then he also never signs with the Yankees ( this year anyway ). I don't see how this would be considered a Yankee win.
Boston tied him up and no one else can sign him.
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the yanks wins because they dont have to face him
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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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That is exactly right. And they will have the chance to get him next year.
Got to wonder if somehow a compromise is reached because both sides will lose if not. |
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Espo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 173
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Boras isn't going to let him go back to Japan. He isn't going to make any real commission if he goes back. This is going to be an 11th hour deal. |
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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 427
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 10:43 pm Post subject: Re: Matsuzaka deal dead? |
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| foulpole wrote: |
| TSWINDERS wrote: |
| The only party that wins is the Yanks. |
If he never signs with the BoSox then he also never signs with the Yankees ( this year anyway ). I don't see how this would be considered a Yankee win.
Boston tied him up and no one else can sign him.
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Well I was just being coy. The Yanks win because they don't have to face him.
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McCray
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Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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maybe it's the boston fan in me, but i can't imagine any way this falls apart. seibu has $51 MILLION on the table as an incentive. they'll find some way to do a kick back or something, make the deal more palatable for boston, boras, everybody. no way seibu decides to lose $51 MILLION to just let matsuzaka walk at the end of the year, no way. it'll be the 11th hour, the contract will shock everyone, but it'll get done.
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levski
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| Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2006 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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| McCray wrote: |
| maybe it's the boston fan in me, but i can't imagine any way this falls apart. seibu has $51 MILLION on the table as an incentive. they'll find some way to do a kick back or something, make the deal more palatable for boston, boras, everybody. no way seibu decides to lose $51 MILLION to just let matsuzaka walk at the end of the year, no way. it'll be the 11th hour, the contract will shock everyone, but it'll get done. |
the seibu lions don't have a say here. it all comes down to the red sox and boras. and mlb won't allow kickbacks...
unless boras gets really creative...
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Otacon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 107
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 12:47 am Post subject: |
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Matsuzaka is actually a free agent AFTER 2008. I would be shocked if he wasn't in an MLB uniform in 2007.
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McCray
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| Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 8:13 am Post subject: |
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| levski wrote: |
| McCray wrote: |
| maybe it's the boston fan in me, but i can't imagine any way this falls apart. seibu has $51 MILLION on the table as an incentive. they'll find some way to do a kick back or something, make the deal more palatable for boston, boras, everybody. no way seibu decides to lose $51 MILLION to just let matsuzaka walk at the end of the year, no way. it'll be the 11th hour, the contract will shock everyone, but it'll get done. |
the seibu lions don't have a say here. it all comes down to the red sox and boras. and mlb won't allow kickbacks...
unless boras gets really creative...
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sure, mlb won't allow kickbacks, but mlb doesn't allow a lot of stuff that still happens. if i was seibu, i'd sure as hell be talking unofficially to boras, matsuzaka, and boston, trying to find a way to split a few million to each to make the deal more palatable.
just because it isn't allowed, doesn't mean it isn't going to happen.
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shoewizard
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Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 8:22 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| just because it isn't allowed, doesn't mean it isn't going to happen. |
Story of my life 
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matt
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 9:02 am Post subject: |
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| I never felt good that a deal would actually happen. It just doesn't make sense to anyone. Boras wants $15M/yr. Including the posting fee, that is $27M/yr over 4 years and $23.5/yr over 6 years. That just doesn't work. |
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McCray
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| Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2006 9:18 am Post subject: |
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also, let's say that a for-real, for-real kickback isn't allowed, and therefore won't be attempted (a big IF, IMO)...
what's to stop seibu from offering, let's say, 10M to the redsox for exclusive use of their facilities or resources? they send one guy to lift weights once, or consult boston's spreadsheet about one thing, pay the 10M, and voila, the posting fee is now 41M.
the market for pitching is fucking insane right now, and it looks like it's either going to stay insane or get worse in the short term. sure, it'll correct eventually, but until then, it's going to be crazy. boston knows this, and i'm guessing they really do want to finalize a deal. 51M is steep, but it buys boston a guy many think can be an ace. is an ace worth 51M to arizona? no, absolutely not. but to boston, a team that sells out constantly but finished third, was it, last year? fourth? it might very well be worth that money to them to be able to compete over the next few years, and to avoid turning 100% into shit when schilling retires.
i still think a deal gets done. i think it's going to be absolute eleventh hour, last second deal, but boston NEEDS pitching too much (i don't think anybody was fooled by their fluff story about how lester's doing quite well, and should be in the mix for a rotation spot come spring -- come on! he's in chemo!).
you know how when you get a raise, the first thing you do is start thinking about how you're going to spend that money? even if you haven't yet gotten the first check reflecting the raise, your eyes are on everything you might want. that's how seibu's gotta be feeling -- that 51M is a REALLY nice little bonus, to make losing matsuzaka more palatable (i'm using this word too much lately).
they'll figure something out. if they don't, all parties come out worse for wear:
seibu loses 51M, and lets matsuzaka leave for nada.
matsuzaka loses his chance at a big payday, and if he gets injured next year (like if seibu decides to maximize his value by leaving him in to pitch 160 pitches a game), he ends up with nothing.
boras loses a chance for a guaranteed commission, and instead must take a "maybe" -- also, keep in mind he isn't a FA next offseason, but instead during march or something before the 08 season, IIRC (japanese contracts don't run by season, but by calendar dates i think). so he goes from a guaranteed payday to hoping a couple teams have a leftover 20M to burn weeks before the season starts -- not a great negotiating spot.
they're going to figure something out. i'm 90% sure of it. it's in EVERYONE'S best interest to get this done.
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tmar
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2006 7:26 am Post subject: |
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This is sounding more and more like Boras going out on a limb. He may actually be starting to believe his own crap.
The rumor articles on this deal are getting to be pretty funny <especially since the D-Backs aren't involved>. |
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matt
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2006 9:53 am Post subject: |
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Boras is on fire right now.
| Boras wrote: |
"Ichiro [Suzuki] came over, was MVP in his first season, and got paid one-third of what he's worth."
"Free agent pitchers who are 26 and have Matsuzaka-like ability receive salaries in excess of $100 million over five or six years in free agency."
"In Japan, he's known as the national treasure. Here, he will be known as Fort Knox."
"The posting fee represents the problem. It's historic, it's new, it's something that's never been done. How do you reflect value in a posting fee in an appropriate contract for a player?
"In the American system, no player is asked to reduce their salaries for luxury tax purposes."
"The progress is something I'm not going to comment on. I'm not going to characterize the negotiations. This is not a customary negotiation. The question is, with a posting fee, how do you handle that?"
"This decision is going to be Daisuke's -- he has to make the call," |
The whole article is here. I cut it up to show Boras's whole quotes. It seems as if they agree that he's worth $100 over 5-6 years but Boston things that the posting fee should be factored into his worth. Obviously, Boras does not. I don't think Boras honstley thinks the posting fee should be ignored, maybe they could split the difference or something like that. If you relate it to luxury tax, a 40% percent tax is put in.
If you split the fee over 3 years, it is ~$17M/yr. They probably figure about $17-20/yr is what they would like to pay for him. Multiply that by 40% and that is the 'tax' on it, ~7M.
Therefore, $10M/yr for the first three years goes towards the fee. During those three years, DMat could get $7-10M. After those three years, his salary goes to $17-20M. The total contract for him is 6/72 - 6/$90. Including the fee, the Sox pay 123-141M.
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Espo
MLB Rookie
Joined: 07 Dec 2006
Posts: 173
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:34 am Post subject: Done Deal? |
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According to ESPN Matsuzaka is on his way with Boston officials to Boston and they have a contract in place.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2696321 |
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matt
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:44 am Post subject: |
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Good News for Boston:
Supposedly 6 years and the sides were between $8-11M/yr. Therefore the total is between $99M - $117M. Good for the Sox to stand their ground and demand that the posting fee be directly tied to how much they pay.
Now the Bad News:
Lugo to Bos, 4/$36. He's marginally better than Counsell. Would Counsell have been given $36M back in 2002 when he was 31? It's a great time to be a league average FA. |
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YBC-Dog
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 128
Location: The PHX
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:15 pm Post subject: Re: Done Deal? |
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| Espo wrote: |
According to ESPN Matsuzaka is on his way with Boston officials to Boston and they have a contract in place.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2696321 |
Looks like McCray was right.
I expected the deal to get done too, similar to the way Stephen Drew's deal got done at the very last minute, even though at that time everyone was predicting we would lose him too.
Boras is an expert at holding out, but ultimately his paycheck suffers if he sends Matsuzaka back to Japan...
It makes for good drama too.
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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| They put his Flight Tracker up on Primer.....LOL |
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misterx
MLB Rookie
Joined: 12 Nov 2006
Posts: 138
Location: do you really care
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:23 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
Now the Bad News:
Lugo to Bos, 4/$36. He's marginally better than Counsell. Would Counsell have been given $36M back in 2002 when he was 31? It's a great time to be a league average FA. |
just shows how crazy the market is this year
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its all fun and games untill some loses an eye then its fun we cant see
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McCray
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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oh, thank god.
i'm going to be watching that flight tracker for the next couple hours.
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Hank, you're dead to me. |
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misterx
MLB Rookie
Joined: 12 Nov 2006
Posts: 138
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 12:48 pm Post subject: |
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SI.com's Jon Heyman says the Red Sox and Daisuke Matszuaka have agreed to terms on a six-year, $52 million contract.
According to Heyman, the deal contains escalator clauses that could bring it up to $60 million.
Source: SI.com
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its all fun and games untill some loses an eye then its fun we cant see |
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tmar
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| That's actually a lot better than I thought the Red Sox would do. I was assuming that they'd be spending 12+ MM/yr for 5 and 20 or so for any add on years. |
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matt
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Not a bad deal at all for Boston, assuming he can pitch at the level of a #1 pitcher. |
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B. O. N. D.
Everyday Player
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Tucson, AZ until 3/6... then back to San Francisco
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| Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 1:57 pm Post subject: |
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No deal yet.
| Quote: |
Daisuke Matsuzaka-S- Red Sox Dec. 13 - 3:28 pm et
Red Sox owner John W. Henry said a report that Daisuke Matsuzaka had agreed to terms was premature.
"Obviously we’re close enough that they’re all on a plane together," Henry said, "but there’s been no deal." We wouldn't expect Henry to say anything else. The Red Sox still haven't officially signed J.D. Drew yet and they're only announcing the Julio Lugo deal today.
Source: Boston.com |
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