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tmar
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:42 pm Post subject: Randy Johnson |
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Since we've only got about 5MM left in our budget, would a trade with the Yankees for RJ make any sense if he'll be able to pitch at least 2/3 of the season?
If he'd be willing to come back, big question, it would be a relatively cheap 1 year filler until one of our AAA prospects proves themselves ready or we rustle up enough $$ to get a strong co-Ace in 2008. |
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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And what do the Yankees get out of this? Payroll relief? LOL |
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tmar
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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Pending on who the Yankees get in the FA market, they may not be willing to rely on RJ. With his back issue, he could easily be a 16MM question mark for them <plus the luxury tax>.
I think the D-Backs would be happy as heck with him putting up #4 numbers in the NL whereas the Yankees would expect more. |
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 3:53 pm Post subject: |
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tmar, that's besides the point. whatever the yankees get from RJ next year will be a LOT more than they can get from igawa or pavano or any other crappy pitchers they put in the back of their rotation. the last time RJ had back surgery was in 1998. I say he bounced back from that pretty well.
more to the point, there is very little on the dbacks that i'd want to give up that would help the yankees... or entice them to send us RJ and cash. because I sure as hell don't want to pay $16m for RJ's services in 07 |
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Aaron
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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While I wouldn't be willing to give up what the Yankees would want for Unit this season, I've long felt that he and Schilling would be logical pickups for next season. And for more than sentimental reasons. It depends on their performance this season of course, but both are still pitching at reasonable levels, might give the team a slight break on salary, etc. At the very least I think there'd be a strong short-term attendance boost.
Just a thought. |
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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Aaron wrote: |
While I wouldn't be willing to give up what the Yankees would want for Unit this season, I've long felt that he and Schilling would be logical pickups for next season. And for more than sentimental reasons. It depends on their performance this season of course, but both are still pitching at reasonable levels, might give the team a slight break on salary, etc. At the very least I think there'd be a strong short-term attendance boost.
Just a thought. |
schilling has said that he'll retire after 2007. and even if he doesn't, he'll want to put on such a primadona "kiss my ass lick my balls" show for weeks and months that it would make me sick to the stomach to see the dbacks follow his yapper around. if anything, he'll return to the red sox after they've given him his own tv show on nesn and have allowed him to take on michael kay in a celebrity death match...
rj in az I won't mind... but if he has any decent season with the yankees, which he will, he'll cost far too much on the free agent market. jbyrnes isn't very sentimental; he's a true capitalist and he's not going to overpay for RJ unless the front office tells him to do it...
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Aaron
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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levski wrote: |
rj in az I won't mind... but if he has any decent season with the yankees, which he will, he'll cost far too much on the free agent market. jbyrnes isn't very sentimental; he's a true capitalist and he's not going to overpay for RJ unless the front office tells him to do it... |
Don't you think RJ is one of the few players that would generate some real excitement for the team in Phoenix though? I do, and I generally don't beleive in individual players having much box-office appeal. If he's pitching at a reasonable level (and I'm with you, I see an improvement on last season), he'd help the team's staff and put a lot of people in the stands. Byrnes' capitalist mind probably knows this.
I agree too that if RJ has a solid season he'll get locked up before we have a shot. Same with Schilling (if he decides not to retire). But if given the opportunity on either, I'd certainly look into it.
I could certainly live with Schilling's yapping though.
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:19 pm Post subject: |
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RJ and the current owners (Kendrick/Moorad) didn't part on very friendly terms. That would make a comeback rather dicey. Plus, he'd probably want to go to a team that would give him the best chance to win the WS in 2008; sadly, that most likely won't be the Dbacks... but they still might win it |
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tmar
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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If they get Igawa, they'll have 4 slots already filled <Mussina, Igawa, Wang and Pavano>. They may deal Pavano and they may also call up Hughes, which would net.
If they get either Pettitte or Clemens <or both> they'll need the roster spot and likely salary relief <I know it's the Yankess, but damn> to pull them in.
If we paid 6MM of RJ's salary, that would save the Yankees about 9MM <does salary kicked in on a trade count against luxury tax?>.
We could trade Jorge Julio, Lyon or some other minor prospect the Yankees may use in a trade. |
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tmar
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: |
RJ and the current owners (Kendrick/Moorad) didn't part on very friendly terms. |
That would be the biggest sticking point.
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shoewizard
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:30 pm Post subject: |
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I have no idea how good RJ will be in 2007. I know he wasn't very good in 2006 (88 ERA+)
Sure he came back from back surgery at the age of 34. And he actually had cartiledge in his knee back then.
Fast forward 9 years, and he is going to be 43 next season, has not cartiledge in his knee, relies on the ever diminishing returns of sinvysc injections, and now is having yet another back surgery.
Despite all that, we all know it's just not a good idea to write him off. So I won't do that. But there is no way the Yankees would want to trade him back to us for 2007, there is no way that the organization should give up the players and spend the money it would take to get him back for 2007, and if by some miracle he has yet another resurgence, he will be too expensive to bring back in 2008.
And on top of all that, as Lev pointed out.....his relationship with ownership sucks.
This aint happening.....this is a waste of time discussing it...even by MY standards. |
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Dbacker4Life
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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we dont need RJ....geeez.
The yankees can keep him until he finally realizes its time to go home. The Dbacks are movin' on....with Webby as our fierce leader...hoorah |
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tmar
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 5:01 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: |
This aint happening.....this is a waste of time discussing it...even by MY standards |
Until something new happens what else are we going to waste our time on? I think we've talked the pro's & con's of any rumor we've seen into the ground. Is there a sole left who think's we should keep Byrnes?
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EvilJuan
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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Nice avatar, tmar -- even if it is a day late and a dollar short!
Those what've been around for a while will recall the non-turnouts for a number of RJ's starts -- including one that matched him against another pitcher who is certain to go into the HOF (although I've forgotten who that was...). Many expected a big crowd; but it didn't happen, in part because it was a game during the week. IIRC, a much larger crowd turned out on the weekend for a Claudio Vargas start...
So the "Bring back RJ as a way to Boost Attendance" theory doesn't hold water, I would think...
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tmar
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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I felt the avatar to be more appropriate now as it would be an advertisement.
The reasons I thought of RJ are:
1- It didn't seem like the Yankees wanted him around last year and now with his back surgeory, they may be anxious to get rid of him.
2- He would be a 1 year deal for us and so he wouldn't hurt the team going forward like a long term signing of a different risky pitcher might.
3- There is the possibility of a high upside for this next year
4- With assumption one, I would think we could get him without raiding the prospect closet
5- Most of all, just wanted to spark the board a bit to stimulate some traffic |
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:00 pm Post subject: |
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EvilJuan wrote: |
Nice avatar, tmar -- even if it is a day late and a dollar short!
Those what've been around for a while will recall the non-turnouts for a number of RJ's starts -- including one that matched him against another pitcher who is certain to go into the HOF (although I've forgotten who that was...).... |
just a guess
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05120ARI2004.htm
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McCray
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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tmar -- your place was always the official meeting place of the baseball forum that doesn't suck. if you end up owning another bar at some point, i hope you plug it all you want on here. god knows i'll go there.
lev -- yeah, that's the game. i remember matsui hitting that HR in the first, i think, or at least really early. and i remember thinking, "fuck, that's the game."
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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McCray wrote: |
lev -- yeah, that's the game. i remember matsui hitting that HR in the first, i think, or at least really early. and i remember thinking, "fuck, that's the game." |
matsui homered leading off the game. might have been the very first or second pitch he saw.
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EvilJuan
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 10:30 pm Post subject: |
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Yep. Lev, it was Glavine vs. Johnson. Nice work.
Attendance at that game was 27, 750.
The following Saturday, 32,379 saw a Vargas victory. The next day, attendance was 32,629.
So bringing RJ back ain't gonna fix the attendance situation none.
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levski
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Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 11:04 pm Post subject: |
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I saw that game on television. One of the most frustrating games I've ever watched |
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Aaron
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Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:22 am Post subject: |
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EvilJuan wrote: |
Those what've been around for a while will recall the non-turnouts for a number of RJ's starts -- including one that matched him against another pitcher who is certain to go into the HOF (although I've forgotten who that was...). Many expected a big crowd; but it didn't happen, in part because it was a game during the week. IIRC, a much larger crowd turned out on the weekend for a Claudio Vargas start...
So the "Bring back RJ as a way to Boost Attendance" theory doesn't hold water, I would think... |
Yeah I remember that and it's a good data point. But that was Year 6 of the RJ era and of course the year we lost 111 games. But yeah, I'm pretty sure if you averaged out his starts over the 6 seasons vs. the teams other starts that there wouldn't be a material difference
That said, everyone loves a comeback. Combined with a strong season this year, I'm pretty convinced that a RJ signing in the offseason (accompanied by many enthusiastic AZ 'Pub columns) would push season ticket sales up pretty hard. It's not necessarily individual games, but an overall attitude towards the team. I think he'd attract a kind of excitement that very few other players could bring.
Of course, it assumes he's still good, coming off a decent season, etc. And yeah, 80% odds if he's that strong that he re-ups during the season with New York. But maybe he feels nostalgic too and wants to pitch near home.
Anyway, I realize it's unlikely. (Enter chastisement for even discussing...)
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shoewizard
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Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:40 am Post subject: |
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I think that this was studied once, and it was found that RJ had a neglible impact on attendance, once the noise was tuned out...(i.e. weekday starts vs. weekend, etc)
But I don't have a link. |
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Aaron
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Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:47 am Post subject: |
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shoewizard wrote: |
I think that this was studied once, and it was found that RJ had a neglible impact on attendance, once the noise was tuned out...(i.e. weekday starts vs. weekend, etc)
But I don't have a link. |
That wouldn't suprise me. I mentioned as much in my previous post.
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TAP
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Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:54 am Post subject: |
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shoewizard wrote: |
I think that this was studied once, and it was found that RJ had a neglible impact on attendance, once the noise was tuned out...(i.e. weekday starts vs. weekend, etc)
But I don't have a link. |
Here's just one example from a game that I attended on September 15, 2004 (a Wednesday night). This was the night that Randy passed Steve Carlton for third overall on the career K list.
Paid attendance that night? 22,598, which at that time was the 2nd-lowest ever at the BOB.
Not to say that I wouldn't love to see RJ finish his career in AZ.... I just don't see it happening.
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Counsell
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Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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If you give me 10 to 1 odds, I'll bet on Steve Carlton having a better year than RJ in 2007. |
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