Diamondbacks Bullpen

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

Gonzo not arbitration - according to the rep...

While probably isnt the best decision in terms of business alone, i think it was one they committed to - after gonzos farewell...

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 8:02 am Post subject:

I believe they must have had some sort of gentlemens agreement not to offer him arbitration so as not to hurt his FA value.

Another classy move by the organization in Gonzo's favor that will go largely unrecognized by the average fan.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I agree shoe

The article:

Tucson DBacks Fan · MLB Rookie Joined: 13 Oct 2006 Posts: 208

I look at this as a win win decision for both Gonzo and the Dbacks. Gonzo will have an easier time getting a good free agent contract with another team, and the Diamondbacks eliminate the outside chance he would accept their arbitration offer. If he did accept it, it could end up costing the Diamondbacks a lot of money, a lot more money than Gonzo is worth. If the Diamondbacks offerred arbitration to Gonzo and he accepted, it would screw up their budget and ability to continue to improve the pitching staff this year. It would also rank as one of the worst personnel moves in Diamondbacks history. Offerring Gonzo arbitration was a risk the Diamondbacks could not take regardless of a high draft pick it might have cost them ( we'll never know ). Very Happy

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

The real motive behind not offering arby: Gonzo now will sign a three year deal with the Dodgers or Padres. The Dbacks win. De facto, Gonzo is the Dbacks version of the Trojan horse.

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

I think Gonzo would have done better than we think in arb and is doing much worse than he lets on in the FA market. I think there was a good chance that he would accept arb and that the Dbacks would regret it.

Gonzo made almost 11M in salary last year. Among the criteria for making an arb award are length and consistency of career contribution, past compensation, public appeal and leadership. Gonzo's last year line was 271/352/444. The "final" game was great evidence as to his public appeal.

While we have a flinty eye view to his contributions next year, his past has been outstanding. It is also just psychologically tough for an arbitrator to cut a player as much as we would would like. I think the Dbacks would have to offer at least 6M to even have a chance that they would win and even then I wouldn't make it a sure thing.

As to Gonzo, you keep hearing he is going to sign, but what he is really worth to a team? These teams see the same player we do. No arm. Not catcher slow, but not not fast any more. Declining power with numbers propped up by the park and altitude. I will be amazed if he gets much more than 2 years 5 per. Arbitration may look good to Gonzo now.

The "Gentlemen's Agreement" makes some sense. Gonzo has been a whiner and a classless jerk in this, but he hasn't really attacked the Dbacks personally that much.

dirtygary · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:47 am Post subject:

I agree with Shoe about the Gentleman's agreement wth not offering arb. And I can't believe there's a bunch of teams knockin down his door. Especially NL West teams that have seen how easy he is to get out now.
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AZ SnakePit · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 1:03 pm Post subject:

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

AZ SnakePit · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject:

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

My guess would Gonzo would get in the 8M in arb for the reasons i stated in my prior post. My 6M was the minimum I thought the Dbacks could offer and have a chance of winning. As in Lev's example, if Gonzo went for 10 and the Dbacks for 6, they would have a 50/50 chance if the arbitrator was in the 8 range.

Also remember the arbitrator is to consider other things than what the persnickety saber guys look at.

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:26 pm Post subject:

persnickety ?? Laughing

Had to look it up, even though I could guess via context:

Main Entry: per·snick·e·ty
Pronunciation: p&r-'sni-k&-tE
Function: adjective
Etymology: alteration of pernickety
1 a : fussy about small details : FASTIDIOUS <a persnickety teacher> b : having the characteristics of a snob
2 : requiring great precision <a persnickety job>
- per·snick·e·ti·ness /-n&s/ noun

EvilJuan · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:00 pm Post subject:

TAP · Posted: Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:03 pm Post subject:

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

What TAP said. I was trying to explain how I got to the lowest offer the Dbacks could reasonably make. In fact, they probably make a higher offer if they think 8M is what the arbitrator thinks the price is. If the Dbacks make a 7M offer in my scenario (or even a 6.5 offer) they "win"--if getting Gonzo at 6.5 is winning.

Of course, Gonzo knows this and would likely come in at say 9M. Now he wins and the Dbacks have to pay the 9 if they have only offered 6.5 (assuming the arbitrator thinks 8 is the number). An interesting situation that shows the risks of arbitration.

Plus with an offer of arbitration, Gonzo theoretically would get less than what he will now get, making him more likely to take the arb option.

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

Here is an article from the Baltimore Sun (which used to be a reliable paper--maybe this is an oxymoron today) that says that baseball sources say Gonzo would get 8-10M on a one year deal. This is consistent with my guess as to an arbitration award and is a good reason for the Dbacks not to offer arbitration. You can't count on the bigger fool.

link