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shoewizard
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 Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:32 am Post subject: Tomo Ohka? Someone please help me here. |
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I just don't understand why they are even reportedly talking to him. Hopefully it is just a ruse. I don't want this guy
Fan Graphs
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BBREF
I realize he had a couple of really good seasons for Montreal back in 2002-2003, but that was his peak. He has pitched less than 100 innings two of the last 3 years.
In his most recent 40 starts for Milwaukee he has thrown 223 innings, or just 5.58 IP per start.
He walked 63, K'd 131, and gave up 28 homers, 243 hits and an ERA of 4.55
Why on earth do we need an oft injured, NON innings eater, mediocre, barely league average FLY BALL starter with no upside that will cost alot of money on a multi year deal?
I really hope this is one of Josh's deke moves. |
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lee mellon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 147
Location: phoenix, az
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:18 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Why on earth do we need an oft injured, NON innings eater, mediocre, barely league average FLY BALL starter with no upside that will cost alot of money on a multi year deal? |
JB adopted TO's daughter and now owes him?
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clpp01
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 19
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:45 am Post subject: Re: Tomo Ohka? Someone please help me here. |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Why on earth do we need an oft injured, NON innings eater, mediocre, barely league average FLY BALL starter with no upside that will cost alot of money on a multi year deal? |
Maybe he is suffering from sellers remorse on giving up Claudio Vargas 
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levski
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Posts: 1725
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 9:47 am Post subject: |
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You need a lot of help, shoewiz...
My guess is JB is just putting up a smokescreen... |
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David B
Everyday Player
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 589
Location: Portland
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:10 am Post subject: |
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It's J. Byrnes plan to load up on as many ex-Brewers as possible (obviously because of the phenominal success that they've been a part of).
Then again, it's not easy to have three former Dback catchers on one roster (well, two former Dbacks, and one former Dback draftee). |
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matt
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:37 am Post subject: |
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My first reaction was to puke my guts out. However, I did a little looking around about him. First of all, it's incorrect to refer to him as 'oft-injured'. He's played in 8 different seasons.
From 1999-2001 he bounced between the majors and minors. In 2002 and 2003 he pitched 193 and 199 innings with ERA+'s of 131 and 119. In 2004, he had a 3.03 ERA in June and took a line drive off of his elbow and broke it. He returned in Sept and finished the year with a 84 IP and 122 ERA+. That is a freak occurance, I'm not holding that against him.
In 2005 he threw 180 IP with a 103 ERA+. In June, he got pissy with Oldie Olderson after being removed from a game and they traded his ass to Milw.
In 2006 he missed time because of a rotator cuff strain that didn't need surgery (warning sign) and a hamstring pull from running the bases. He thew 97 innings with a 93 ERA+. He pitched well in July and got lit up in Aug and Sept.
He's never had a good K rate and probably never will. He does have a nice BB rate but because of his low K rate he will never have a 'good' K/BB. His HR rate is acceptable and he is not a fly ball pitcher (career G/F of 1.23; 1.00 and 1.02 in 05 and 06).
He's not an innings eater but if his shoulder is fine we can bet on him throwing 180 innings. That is fine for the 4th spot in the rotation. We can also bet on him being at least league average. Again, that is pretty nice for the ass end of the rotation.
Should we make a push for him? Why not? If he's not gathering a lot of interest his price tag could be low. Assume Edgar gets the last spot, do we think Enrique or Cruz can be counted on to exceed 180 IP and ERA+ of 100? If the answer is no then it might be worth it.
I'm not on the bandwagon but it could be worse. If he accepts, we need to make damn sure his shoulder is fine before we sign him. |
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levski
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:57 am Post subject: |
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like with wolf, the dbacks are trying to see if ohka will sign for very little. chance are, he won't, and some team will overpay. it won't be the dbacks.
shoewiz needs to stop freaking out...  |
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| shoewiz needs to stop freaking out... Laughing |
LOL....then what would we have to talk about? 
Great post Matt.....you make alot of good counterpoints.
My thinking goes like this and it's pretty simple:
The Down side of giving those 180 innings to some combination of our young pitching prospects is about an 85-90 ERA+, and there is always the chance that one of them could step forward and turn that into 95 or better, which is league average for a starter I hear. (Once you take out the effect of relievers on league ERA)
I see Ohka as a guy who may get better or may get worse, but is still a very good bet to be over 90 but probably less than a 50/50 shot of being over 100.
To me the value of that difference (5-10 ERA+ points) is not as great as the value of the possibility of developing a young pitcher, and at the very least, raising that young pitchers trade value. (Think Vargas)
Basically signing Ohka is a "Win Now" type move. But he isn't possibly the difference between winning or not winning a pennant.
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matt
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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Very true. Also, what is the difference between an 85 ERA+ and a 100 ERA+? A run every three starts? I can live with that.
I'm starting to value ERA less and less for the non-ace types. A 4.0 ERA sounds a lot better than a 5.00 ERA but over 180 innings, it is 20 runs. It gives you no context whatsoever. Is it better to have a consistant pitcher or someone like Vargas who is capable of shutting the other team down vs getting BOMBED every couple of starts.
What is it that you said you looked for? IP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and G/F? |
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matt
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:05 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Basically signing Ohka is a "Win Now" type move. But he isn't possibly the difference between winning or not winning a pennant. |
I blame you and all the posts you've made about how attendance will continue to drop unless they win now. JB has been reading the board too much.
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qudjy1
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
Very true. Also, what is the difference between an 85 ERA+ and a 100 ERA+? A run every three starts? I can live with that.
I'm starting to value ERA less and less for the non-ace types. A 4.0 ERA sounds a lot better than a 5.00 ERA but over 180 innings, it is 20 runs. It gives you no context whatsoever. Is it better to have a consistant pitcher or someone like Vargas who is capable of shutting the other team down vs getting BOMBED every couple of starts.
What is it that you said you looked for? IP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and G/F? |
I read somewhere very recently (i think it was a link from this site) how there was a study done to compare pitchers - more specifically, inconsistant ones versus steady ones - that was real interesting...
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:15 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| shoewizard wrote: |
| Basically signing Ohka is a "Win Now" type move. But he isn't possibly the difference between winning or not winning a pennant. |
I blame you and all the posts you've made about how attendance will continue to drop unless they win now. JB has been reading the board too much.
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Yeah.,....sometimes I have a hard time making up my mind.
Of course,....when I said that, I had someone like Jason Schmidt in mind, not Tomo Ohka
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
| matt wrote: |
Very true. Also, what is the difference between an 85 ERA+ and a 100 ERA+? A run every three starts? I can live with that.
I'm starting to value ERA less and less for the non-ace types. A 4.0 ERA sounds a lot better than a 5.00 ERA but over 180 innings, it is 20 runs. It gives you no context whatsoever. Is it better to have a consistant pitcher or someone like Vargas who is capable of shutting the other team down vs getting BOMBED every couple of starts.
What is it that you said you looked for? IP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and G/F? |
I read somewhere very recently (i think it was a link from this site) how there was a study done to compare pitchers - more specifically, inconsistant ones versus steady ones - that was real interesting...
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The Hardball Times
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matt
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| That sure makes Vargas look better. |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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I remember reading it, thinking that there are some flaws in the "inconsistent is better than steady"way of thinking,
1. Inconsistant starters (who get taken out of a game early) are bad for bullpens.
2. I also didnt like this paragraph - lots of questions in bold...
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| Imagine that Mr. Consistent allowed 5 runs every game he pitched. He would go 15-15 (Really?). Now imagine that Mr. Inconsistent allowed no runs in half his starts and 10 in the other half. He'd win all his 0-run starts, but he'd also win the occasional 10-run start (about 18% of those starts, actually). Overall, he'd win around 18 games, three better than Mr. Consistent. As our example becomes less extreme, so does the difference. |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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Ohka Aint coming here...
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Add Tomo Ohka's name to the Pirates' list of coveted free-agent pitchers.
They are among seven or eight teams, including the high-spending Boston Red Sox, who have made known their interest to Ohka's agent, Jim Masteralexis, though it is believed that talks have not advanced far with any party. |
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tmar
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1162
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Wow, what a crazy market. We should have signed Batista to a 2 year deal and dealt him at the ASB. |
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stu
Everyday Player
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 556
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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but he'd also win the occasional 10-run start (about 18% of those starts, actually).
Only with a manager like Melvin who will let his pitchers give up 10 runs. |
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baldmaga
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 486
Location: Louisiana
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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eww...Tomo Ohka???
Time to go vomit. |
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Dan
September Call-Up
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 81
Location: Mesa
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Hey Shoe changing the avatar!?! I'm going to miss the pierced infant. |
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matt
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1708
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:42 pm Post subject: |
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| Dan wrote: |
| Hey Shoe changing the avatar!?! I'm going to miss the pierced infant. |
Based on our conversations about that logo its safe to say that he now plays for the other team.
/not that there's anything wrong about that...
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Dan
September Call-Up
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 81
Location: Mesa
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| Dan wrote: |
| Hey Shoe changing the avatar!?! I'm going to miss the pierced infant. |
Based on our conversations about that logo its safe to say that he now plays for the other team.
/not that there's anything wrong about that...
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I originally considered a phallus reference but reconsidered. Thanks for helping, Matt!
I know that the there is a thread about the logo but I can't help thinking of Tyler Durden's subliminal additions to peliculas. I wonder if this is what the organization had in mind: cast off the purple, change to a "manly red" and then change the logo to include a subliminal male genitalia?
Maybe I should just go to bed!
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TAP
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2337
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Dan wrote: |
| matt wrote: |
| Dan wrote: |
| Hey Shoe changing the avatar!?! I'm going to miss the pierced infant. |
Based on our conversations about that logo its safe to say that he now plays for the other team.
/not that there's anything wrong about that...
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I originally considered a phallus reference but reconsidered. Thanks for helping, Matt!
I know that the there is a thread about the logo but I can't help thinking of Tyler Durden's subliminal additions to peliculas. I wonder if this is what the organization had in mind: cast off the purple, change to a "manly red" and then change the logo to include a subliminal male genitalia?
Maybe I should just go to bed!
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Maybe that's what the purple was all about. 
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3148
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 12:52 am Post subject: |
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ill fated experiment with the logo
but it really does just look too much like cock and balls
(or David Blaines logo.....I'm surprised he isn't suing) |
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Dan
September Call-Up
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 81
Location: Mesa
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| Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 am Post subject: |
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Welcome back Pierced Baby!
Shoe, a post at 12:52 AM? I hope you didn't toss and turn in bed with concerns of the avatar change.  |
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