Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 11:49 am Post subject: Scott Hairston vs. Eric Byrnes
Warning: This article could get a bit long. So read at your own risk...
The Background:
Four score and seven years ago, Josh Byrnes, craving to start his own hit show on Fox called "Byrnes and Byrnes, Brothers in Byrning", signed Eric Byrnes, formerly of the A's, R's and O's, to a relatively cheap $2+m deal.
I actually didn't care much for this signing last winter, and voiced my concerns on the old board, but Eric Byrnes had a good enough year with the bat filling in the hole in CF, to make me eat some crow along with turkey.
That being said, Byrnes wasn't great. Defensively, there was quite a bit of disagreement on how good he was; Chris Dial rated him as very good in CF by Zone Rating; on the other hand, David Pinto's system had him as barely average in CF. Another poster on BTF, Chone Smith, translated Pinto's numbers into runs prevented for CFers, and again had Byrnes as barely average in CF. For the sake of argument, let's say that Byrnes was slightly above average in CF with the glove, despite his wild diving experiments that would make Torii Hunter proud.
Now, with the bat, Byrnes seemingly had a great year. 25 homers, 25 steals, all the numbers that make arbitrators orgasm... However, most arbitrators don't understand park factors, and won't understand that despite his 25-25 season, Byrnes was pretty crappy with the bat. His stats in the end translated to OPS+ of 95. 95 OPS+ was better than Shawn Green's 93, but worse than Gonzo's 97+, and Gonzo had his worst season in a long time with the bat...
Now, 95 OPS + out of a centerfielder isn't bad, you know. When you sort centerfielders by VORP for 2006, Eric Byrnes was 10th in baseball with VORP of 25.1, worse than Kenny Lofton (26.1) and better than Corey Patterson (23.3). Fwiw, Sizemore's VORP was 69.1, and Beltran's was 68.5
Therefore, Byrnes gave you slightly above average D and slightly above average O in centerfield in 2006. All for $2m or so. All in all, a good deal for Josh Byrnes.
The problem:
In this game, however, it's not about what have you done for me lately, it's what can you do for me next year. And going into next year, Byrnes is slated to start in LF. He's supposed to replace Gonzo's declining production there. His chief competition in LF, aside from Gonzo's shadow in the hearts of the Sun City West residents, is Scott Hairtson.
Now, I have it from a variety of sources that Josh Byrnes is actively seeking to trade Scott Hairston. It's not really a shocker to me. Scott is out of options, he seems to have falled out of favor in AZ, and appears to be the quintessential "guy in need of change of scenery". Josh Byrnes (for brevity, I'll call him JB from now on, to distinguish him from Eric Byrnes (EB)) has decided that EB is his guy in LF next year, and Hairston finds himself an SOL in a crowded outfield.
The question:
The million (or multi-million) dollar question, however, is this: Is JB going to fuck up royally by trading Scott while hanging onto EB's mangy hairdo?
The answer:
Yes, JB will fuck up royally if the trades Scott in order to keep EB.
The explanation:
Just for argument's sake, let's compare Scott (SH) and EB, in terms of: cost, offense, defense, upside, trade value, and future usefullness in AZ.
Cost:
Well, this is a no-brainer. SH will cost the major league minimum next year. EB will cost anywhere from $4m to $6m, assuming JB goes to arbitration with him instead of offering him a multi-year deal. All signs point to one year deal, so let's give him Juan Pierre 2005 salary, or right around $5m.
Offense:
I already talked about EB's 2006 contribution. His seemingly great 2006 season (25hr, 25sb), while great from fantasy baseball perspective, and above average in CF, would be woefully insufficient in LF. Just compare:
He hit worse than Gonzo last year 95 OPS+ vs 97 OPS+ for Gonzo) and Gonzo was almost 10 years older and having his worst season in AZ. Gonzo's 97 OPS+ translated in VOPR among all LFers of 11.3; by VORP, Gonzo was 20th out of 27 qualifying LFers in the game. Why is he worse by VORP than Byrnes despite having higher OPS+? Because the replacement level in LF is much higher than in CF; in other words, it's a lot easier to find guys to play LF and hit well there than to find comparable guys in CF.
What are the implications of that? If Byrnes somehow matches his 2006 production in LF, he'd be barely be posting a VORP of around 10. That's it. Do you pay $5m for that? I sure as hell wouldn't. But that's next.
Let's ask ourselves the question: what about SH? Look at zips:
Name P AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB
Hairston lf .276 .334 .522 106 370 64 102 19 3 22 57 32 77 3
Byrnes cf .265 .323 .462 136 506 76 134 34 3 20 69 37 85 15
Notice something funny? SH is projected to outhit Byrnes fairly easily next year. In fact, in 370 at bats, zips sees SH hitting 22 homers; give him EB's 506 at bats, and you're looking at 30 homers out of him.
Why is that? Well, SH is a very good hitter. While by hype he has been bypassed by guys like Quentin and Young, SH is still a very good hitter. In fact, no one has ever doubted whether he'll hit.
Looking at his 2006 season, SH had another great campaign.
Hairston hit .323/.407/.591/.997 in AAA last year. He hit 26 homers in only 381 at bats last year. Give him 500 at bats, and he'll be 33-34 homer guy. His K/BB ratio was solid... and look at his MLE (that is, how his AAA stats translated to the majors)
MLE: .268/.340/.495/.835
What did Eric Byrnes do again?
EB in AZ: .267/.313/.482/.795
Even if Hairston gives AZ .835 OPS next year (and Zips likes him more than that), he'll be offensive upgrade on Byrnes. I firmly believe that, if SH got the 500+ at bats that EB got last year, he'll hit 30+ homers with .270 batting average. That's excellent production for a guy making the major league minimum. Heck, that's probably what Carlos Lee will hit in 2007
Defense:
That's the major knock on Hairston. EB should be above average in LF, even if he looks like a fly with his head cut off out there. But I actually think that Hairston can give you decent glove work in LF if the Dbacks let him relax in there for a season. Heck, the Dbacks suffered Gonzo's lolly gapping in there for years, Hairston really can't be that much worse. And even if Byrnes is about a win better with the glove than SH in LF, I think the other factors (offense, cost and upside) outweigh the negative on D.
Upside:
This is the huge one. What's EB's upside? It's basically his 2006 season, repeated. Is that good enough? For CF, it's pretty good. For LF, it's just terrible. You cannot be paying $5m for .323 OPS and sub-800 OPS out of your Left Fielder. You just CANNOT. It's a waste of money. There really is no upside to Eric Byrnes. His downside is a lot bigger
SH's upside? How about 2-3 seasons of .270 batting average with 30 homers and .850 OPS, all for the major league minimum? That's plenty of upside in there, and he's entering his most productive couple of years as a ball player. Teams are paying ridiculous money for LESS production on the free agent market right now. Another upside: Hairston's trade value will be much more significant after a couple of solid season in the majors.
Trade value:
By trade value, I mean "which player can fetch more right now?" The answer is, Eric Byrnes. Why?
Well, Byrnes is a proven veteran, and, as I mentioned already, he's the type of "playah" that baseball folks love. A rah-rah loud dirty gritty hustler who leaves it all on the field blah blah blah guy. More to the point though, he can play CF and he's coming off a 25-25 season. Look at what a couple of CFers just got on the free agent market: Pierre got 45M, Sarge Lite got 50M. And Eric Byrnes is right there defensively and offensively. Which isn't to say Byrnes is an amazing hitter; it's that the free agent market is really overpaying mediocrity right now.
There are several teams that could use "proven veteran centerfielder" next year: SFG, COL, TEX, CHN, CHA, MIL. All of these teams are looking at Dave Roberts, the last CFer standing, and once he's gone, Eric Byrnes will look sexier than a chocolate sundae on Eva Longoria's nekkid butt. Trust me. And JB should capitalize on this.
Hairston, on the other hand, won't fetch you nearly as much. He's unproven and he can't play CF. Some teams out there would certainly take flier on him (CLE, e.g.) but the GMs of those teams are smart enough to low ball the Dbacks on Hairston. In other words, the dumb GMs that JB could take advantage of will be asking for Byrnes, not Hairston. And the smart GMs that would take on SH are too smart to give up that much.
Future usefullness:
Well, EB is one and done. THe Dbacks aren't going to sign him long term (they shouldn't) and they'll lose him after 07. They should lose him sooner, actually. As in, now. If you assume that CGon and JUpton won't be ready until late 2008 or even 2009, you would have a gap in CF next year.
If you hang onto Hairston though, he will serve as the bridge to CGon or Upton. And when those two are ready, you'll be able to flip Hairston for a lot more than you would now.
Conclusion:
Well, in my book, the decision between Byrnes and Hairston is really a no-brainer. The Dbacks should keep SH and trade EB. It's that simple. You can have three young cheap good outfielders in CQ, CY and SH, with Davanon/Hammock as your 4th/5th OFers, and your entire outfield will cost you about 2.5M, or about half of what EB will cost you in 07. You can use that extra cash for pitching; in fact, the money you save by trading EB and keeping SH should buy you enough pitching to compensate for the one win or so that you'd lose on defense in LF. Of course, Hairston's bat alone will probably make up that one win on offense.
So, JB, do the right thing. Trade Eric Byrnes when his value is highest. And give Scott Hairston a chance. Don't fuck him over, and don't waste his talent the way you did by failing to protect Uggla in the Rule 5, or by signing Easley to take away the at bats that should've gone to Andy Green. Granted, Uggla is done, and Andy is pretty much gone to Japan, it seems; but Hairston is still a Dback, and the Dbacks still have the chance to use his bat at low cost over the next couple of years.
Eric Byrnes was a nice buy-low guy; now it's the time to sell high on him. And give Scotty the chance to finally prove what he can do with the bat.
Make Spike Lee proud; do the right thing.
[edit] tried to fix a couple of spelling errors
Last edited by levski on Sat Nov 25, 2006 11:19 am; edited 1 time in total
Problem: how does JB sell this to the common fan - they still have to worry about ticket sales...
If my numbers are right (and they seldom are), the 5M in salary means that the Dbacks could lose 125,000 in attendence (figuring that with concessions each fan means $40 to the team) and still break even. Do you think EB is going to bring in 125k in fans in one year? Will the probable increase in wins make up for any fans lost by EB going?
It would be ironic in they suffer the backlash in letting gonzo go and then keep EB to avoid a backlash.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 1:50 pm Post subject:
i'm sold on the idea. make it happen, josh.
that said, i do think we need to brace ourselves for hairston's defense. tswinders (i think) saw most every game as an official scorer, and said he was pretty terrible out there. like, freezing up on any ball hit remotely to his area. he's just bad, and the few times last year i got to see the sidewinders, i saw the same thing.
which doesn't mean we shouldn't do it. we should trade eric byrnes in a heartbeat, and throw scott hairston into the fire. but we should probably temper expectations just a bit. IMO, the D will be a lot worse than we're expecting, and it may also take a toll on his O production.
still, it's the right thing to do. snap to it, josh.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.
Problem: how does JB sell this to the common fan - they still have to worry about ticket sales...
The main drivers of ticket sales:
1. Team winning games
2. Homegrown players helping team win games
The front office would have to be completely delusional or idiotic to think that Eric Byrnes would have a meaningful impact on attendance next year.
Believe me, fans would be a lot more excited to come see Hairston hit 25 homers in LF than Eric Byrnes diving for every single ball in his vicinity.
I dont disagree - although i think there is a half year to full year lag from winning games to show in attendance - the first half would be based on expectation of the year, and last year's performance.
I think there will be some (MLB Board) that view gonzo byrnes leaving as a "go cheap" strategy - and not go to the park - i have no idea how much though...
Regardless - any financial impact should be saved by thier salary diff... good point stu..
That and with Byrnes & Estrada in our "to trade" arsenal along with a few others, we should be able to land enough to appease the die hard EB's <all 20 of them>.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3242
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 5:24 pm Post subject:
Lev, I concur with you on this 100%
There is one other aspect of Byrnes game that was not addressed in your post. We all know about it. The Chronic second half tailoff. It has happened in every season he has played in. You can almost set your watch by EB's second half decline. 2006 was clearly no exception.
On top of that, not only does he not have a good OBP, but he makes far too many easy outs, and does not put as much pressure on defenses as he should with his speed. He has a 25% IF/F (Popup) rate on balls in play and 88 strikeouts. That combination makes FAR too many EASY OUTS, that don't stress the defenses.
shoewiz, those are very valid points. I didn't address the second half tailoffs as I chose to look at entire season's worth of production (or projection, for that matter). However, it's fairly evident that Byrnes starts hot off the gate and then tails off come summer. Not exactly the player you want manning LF if you're in the middle of a pennant race.
The 88 Ks aren't extraordinary per se; it's fairly average. The bigger problem really is that his career OBP is .322. That's pretty terrible for a guy you want to slot in LF next year. OBP, as a rule, is about twice as valuable as SLG; so if you have two guys with the same OPS, but one guy has higher OBP and lower SLG, you want that guy on your roster.
Any way you slice it, .322 OBP screams "out-machine" to me...
Pos Team Lg IP Pl +/- /150
LF Tucson PCL 752.3 143 -2 -4
CF Tucson PCL 9.0 1 -1 -219
-- Tucson PCL 761.3 144 -3 -5
You can ignore the 2 games he played in CF; he's certainly not a centerfielder. However, the numbers for him in LF weren't horrible. -4 runs over 150 games in LF is probably middle of the pack for most leftfielders. If he can carry -4 (or even -6) over a full season in left field, the Dbacks can be pretty happy in there. Fwiw, Gonzo was right around 0 (+/- 1) in LF last year. And his arm made Juan Pierre's look strong.
[edit]
Az's other players in AAA;
Chris Young: +18 over 882 IP, or + 28 over 150 games (wowzer!)
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/455/455759dfs06.html
Carlos Quentin: + 2 over 150 games in RF
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/435/435041dfs06.html
Stephen Drew: -17 over 150 games at SS
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/452/452220dfs06.html
Alberto Callaspo: +31 over 150 games at 2b; check out 3b and SS!
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430948dfs06.html
Brian Barden: +40 over 150 games at 3b!
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/pl/430/430948dfs06.html
Last edited by levski on Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:12 pm Post subject:
okay, the defensive number seal the deal. we NEED to trade byrnes for something and give LF to hairston.
and i'd be amazed if chris young didn't win a couple gold gloves while he's hear. wow. he's going to make everyone forget about steve finley.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.
A long time ago, one of my friends was trying to trade me Chuck Finley in our fantasy baseball league. My repartee: "Why would I bother with Chuck Finley? Even his wife beats him up every fifth day." I was so proud...
What happens is ANYONE goes down? Ie, if Quentin or Byrnes go down, and you've traded Hairston?
DaVanon could play reasonably well in all 3 spots...
ok, with the addition of Davis to the rotation if we can reel in another legit top/middle of the rotaion SP then park Hairston's sad D in LF and bye-bye Byrnesie.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3242
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 4:55 pm Post subject:
Today Ken Rosenthal reported
Quote:
The Cubs have discussed acquiring Rockies right-hander Jason Jennings for right fielder Jacque Jones, who would play center in Colorado. Such a move could lead to the Cubs' signing of free agent Julio Lugo to play center. Alfonso Soriano presumably would play left, and the Cubs would need to figure out right.
Levski has proposed sending Byrnes to the Rockies for Jason Jennings. Certainly Josh must have already contacted Colorado and asked about this possibility.....if hasn't, he really needs to.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 161
Location: Tucson, Arizona
Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 7:33 pm Post subject:
How many good outfielders are in our system? There are so many I can't even name them all..
Carlos Quentin
Chris Young
Carlos Gonzalez
Scott Hairston
Justin Upton
Fie?
Parra?
Rahl?
Septimo?
That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there's a few I missed. The point is, there's so many good outfield prospects in the system that Byrnes being on the team next year is pointless.
With the amount Gary Matthews Jr and Juan Pierre got payed, I think we should be able to find someone who'll jump to acquire Byrnes. JB needs to make a move.
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-Zephon
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