Diamondbacks Bullpen

allstar · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:44 pm Post subject: Diamondbacks 2007 Draft Picks

I think the Diamondbacks have the #11 or #12 overall pick in the following year's first year player draft. But the cool thing is, that Luis Gonzalez is a Type A free agent, and it will likely net us another 1st round draft pick since Cardinals and Dodgers are the most likely teams to sign him. If the team finished in the top 15, then they must give up their first round pick and we also get the sandwhich pick. 3 first round draft picks sounds great to me to go along with our already stocked farm system.
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Too many girls out there to choose from. Just too many. lol.

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 4:47 pm Post subject:

If the d backs don't offer arbitration, which they won't, then I don't think they get the draft pick.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

McCray · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:40 pm Post subject:

i like the idea of offering gonzo arb, too. worst case scenario, he accepts for significantly less money, and we ship eric byrnes somewhere for some talent.

best case: we get a rockin' draft pick.

why won't they offer arb, shoe?
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Hank, you're dead to me.

Aaron · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 5:48 pm Post subject:

I forget the exact language, but I think that an offer of arbitration can be at a minimum 80% of the prior year's salary. It seems that Luis might jump at the opportunity to play out a one-year $8MM contract when his other (likely) contracts will come in around 2 yrs, $10MM. Of course the way salaries have escalated this offseason maybe that is undershooting his contract.

Best case scenario of course would be him signing before the arbitration deadline to make the discussion moot.

McCray · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:02 pm Post subject:

aaron, i believe (from what i've read on this and other boards) that the 80% rule is only in effect for the first 5 or 6 years of arb-eligibility. so that shouldn't apply to gonzo.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

Aaron · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:05 pm Post subject:

Did some quick research on the topic and it looks like the 80% rule wouldn't apply in Luis' case as he is a free agent. From a Baseball Prospectus article entitiled "The Arbitration Process - The Basics":

What about salary cuts? Isn't there a rule about this?

Yes, there is, and this is one of the more confusing rules in baseball contracts. No club may submit a salary figure that is less than 80% of the player's previous year's salary (or 70% of his salary two years' previous).

The CBA is incredibly unclear on this point, but it seems that for the purposes of this rule the term "salary" is a combination of guaranteed money and earned performance bonuses. This is critically different from the rule regarding maximum salary reduction for players who have not yet reached salary arbitration eligibility. For pre-arbitration players the term "salary" is a combination of guaranteed money, earned performance bonuses and unearned performance bonuses. In any case, it is incredibly rare for this rule to come into play. The nature of the arbitration system almost never propogates salary reductions.

The maximum-cut rule does not apply for free agents in arbitration. The Collective Bargaining Agreement specifically states that the maximum salary reduction rule is inapplicable in free-agent arbitration cases. To clarify, when Joe Sheehan wrote that that Toronto wouldn't risk going to arbitration with Carlos Delgado because of the 80% salary rule, he had his facts wrong. The rule didn't apply to Delgado because of his free-agent status.

The last case where someone walked out of an arbitration hearing with less money than they made the previous year was Randy Milligan in 1994. Occasionally players settle prior to their hearing and settle at a salary that is less than they made the year before, but even that is extremely rare.

Of course this is pulling from the last collective bargained agreement, I don't know if the current agreement has different language. If the language is different I haven't read of it as of yet.

Aaron · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:07 pm Post subject:

Thanks McCray, you beat me to the punch.

Aaron · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 6:19 pm Post subject:

I wonder what Luis' arbitration number would be? I think some good comps would be all of the mid-tier OFs that signed FA contracts last offseason (Reggie Sanders, Juan Encarnacion, Rondell White, etc.). Reggie and Juan signed for exactly $5MM per, Rondell a bit less. So I think we'd have to assume that $5MM is the base of the risk we'd potentially assume (with a real possibility of that going to the $7MM range). It seems he'll get an offer at least in that range this offseason, but maybe having to pony up draft picks would scare teams off.

The thought of him actually accepting an arbitration offer is a laughable thought. It'd be very uncomfortable for everyone involved, with all of the public goodbyes and bad feelings, etc.

I think the likelihood of him being offered a comparable dollar, multi-year deal (read: 2 years) combined with the fact that he accepting the arb offer is probably a last-resort option makes offering him arb worth the gamble. Isn't worst-case scenario having him on a one-year deal, somewhat pacifying the fan-base, and probably having to move Eric Byrnes elsewhere? Not so bad...

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

guys, Gonzo WILL get a multi-year deal offer from somewhere. Maybe a couple of teams...

McCray · Posted: Mon Nov 20, 2006 10:17 pm Post subject:

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

More info on offering arbitration from mlb.com

This part is new, and it has major implications:

Aaron · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:10 pm Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 4:10 pm Post subject:

I know you are right Lev......it's just that date, December 7th......not an auspicious date to be sure.

I wonder if they have some kind of gentlemens agreement NOT to offer him arbitration. I doubt it...but you never know.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

the m's, o's, giants, etc, have their first round picks protected next year. the o's have already given up their 2nd and 3rd rounder for baez/bradford, what do they care if they give up their 4th rounder too? (even though if they sign gonzo, I think AZ gets the 2nd rounder and bumps the other two teams down). ditto for the giants. draft picks? sabean would rather have tooth picks

gentleman's agreement?! we're not selling british royalty here...

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

A very helpful table to decide which team gets which draft pick...

http://story.scout.com/a.z?p=2&c=595148

Gonzo is ranked so high, the Dbacks pretty much HAVE to offer him arbitration...

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

also from scout.com, the potential sandwich pick order

http://story.scout.com/a.z?p=2&c=596017

looking at his list, the sandwich pick for gonzo would be around 40th overall or so, while the picks for counsell and batista could be in the 70s and 90s range overall. all the more reasons to offer gonzo arbitration...

patlawman · Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:04 am Post subject:

If we offered Gonzo arbitration and he accepted (highly unlikely) would there be any restrictions on trading him. Assuming arbitration would be less than if he goes with the FA market could the Dbacks flip him to make some money?

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

Aaron · Posted: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:51 am Post subject:

Does anyone know when the actual deadline is? I know it's today, but I can't find anything regarding time, etc. And when do these things typically become public knowledge? If I remember correctly, it's not something that MLB keeps quiet on (like the waiver process, for instance).

It's an interesting offseason to be sure. Even with the new rules it seems like there will be more draft picks swapped and sandwich picks than prior years.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765

Dbacks make arbitrary decisions

Pun.

Dbacks offer arbitration to Batista. Decline arbitration to Gonzo.

Of course, they offer arb to Counsell, but that's a technicality.

All in all, the Dbacks will collect two supplemental draft picks.

MWS · A-Ball Kid Joined: 21 Nov 2006 Posts: 23

This is how the D-Backs draft order for the 1st 3 rounds right now if they dont sign anyone else:

1st Round Pick

9th pick Overall ( Can Not Lose It )

1st Round Supplemental

33rd pick Overall ( Craig Counsell, B, to Mil)

No higher then the- 45th Pick
No lower then the - 63th Pick for Miguel Batista regards of where he goes

52nd Overall Pick if they fail to sign Max Scherzer

2nd Round

79th Overall Pick

3rd Round

109 Overall Pick

The D-Backs with the 9th overall pick could still possible still see Matt Wieters C or RHP Andrew Brackman at the 9th spot considering both are being advised by Boras. Wieters bat is being compared MLB ready to Mark Texeria's and could also be drafted has a pitcher in the 1st round. He would have been a Top 10 HS signee in the 2004 draft if it wasn't for his strong commitment to Georgia Tech.

shoewizard · Posted: Sun Dec 03, 2006 7:52 am Post subject:

Great info, thanks for the layout of the draft situation.

They need a really good draft in 2007, the last two might be kind of iffy, (other than Upton of course)

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1765