Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:45 am Post subject: Tempering Expectations for Q

It was really exciting seeing him get off to the start that he did. But I think we need to be realistic about what to expect from him over the next 6 weeks.

His line for the season is

.278/.361/.630 .991 OPS 5 doubles 1 triple 4 homers 17 RBI 6 walks 10 k's 3 GDP

BUT after homering 4 times in his first 16 at bats, here is his batting line since July 29th, 43 plate appearances:

.237/.326/.368 .694 OPS 3 doubles 1 triple zero homers, 8 RBI 3 walks 2 HBP 6 K's

He's still had a couple of big hits this month, and is playing good defense.
And no matter how he hits, I want him playing everyday because of the benefit it will bring NEXT YEAR having him get this major league experience, and learning how to make adjustments at this level.

But I don't expect his current batting line and OPS to hold. He's only got 60 plate appearances, and it doesn't take much for those numbers to drop quite a bit.

OTOH.....another hot streak may be just around the corner, who knows?
It sure would be nice
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

matt · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:48 am Post subject:

He made an impressive start to capture the fan's hearts. Hopefully it's not too much of a slump.

Same goes for Drew, he's playing way above his head right now.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

Quentin: .263/.346/.447

Drew: .257/.324/.454

Give or take 5%

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:39 am Post subject:

From here on out, or season ending line?

Drew would have to slump tremendously badly to come down to that line.

He may have been lucky with his BABIP, but those hits are in the books. He has twice as many plate appearances as Carlos does....so I don't see his season ending line dropping down quite that far.

But FROM HERE ON OUT...those numbers look reasonable.
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:56 am Post subject:

gotcha
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

Catharsis · Journeyman Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 338

Is it just me or is Q getting more breaking balls on the outside of the plate? Maybe it's time he gets a longer bat.

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 11:10 am Post subject:

Drew's gonna keep a high avg because he takes that low-outside pitch to LF. OTOH, Q just hacks and is going to be very streaky. His avg could plummet really far before his next hot streak bumps it up. Then he'll have a string of 2B's and HR's to make up for it. But at least he gets his hacks in. CJ is lucky if he gets the bat off his shoulder.
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Robert S. · Everyday Player Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 530

Q is not a hacker. He takes his walks. He has a long history to that effect.

There is a world of difference between a hacker (Estrada) and aggression (Quentin).

therealnod · Guest

Oden · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:01 pm Post subject:

Everyone who knows these guys knows they're for real. You're apparently unfamiliar with Dylan's projections.

We all know it's difficult to project players without a lot of data and it's very hard to predict based on minor league numbers alone. But it's a fun exercise to see how close you can come and that's all that's being done here. It's much less foolish than thinking these kids will not eventually regress towards the mean.

Besides, nobody is wrong yet.

therealnod · Guest

Oden · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:19 pm Post subject:

If you want to state what they are, I'm sure Dylan will explain in more detail.

therealnod · Guest

I'm pretty sure he won't. Age and level is a huge factor in the process, and you cannot ignore on-the-fly changes, which algo-projections can't handle...they're based on data from the past, and can't handle present developments. A young kid figures out MLB pitching, there's no way to control for that. You're just tossing coins. It's not relevant...you just wait and see what happens.

dirtygary · Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:47 am Post subject:

Dangerfield · Posted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:07 am Post subject:

right now he's not swinging well, but he hasn't been looking foolish or overmatched. After getting to see mlb breaking pitches for the first time, and different pitch sequence's, he'll adjust. Team mvp in sept.
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Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

My projections have both an age adjustment and a league adjustment for the minors. An "age for league" adjustment is then implied.

Do my projections have flaws, certainly. One of them is the fact that my age adjustment is based on a league-wide scale. It's an avg.

All MLB players typically have an arc to their production, but the slope of that arc and therefore how high the peak gets are different depending on the talent of the player.

HOF players shoot up in production faster than other players and by doing that would regularly exceed the projections I would have for them (slight assumption). So if you think Quentin and Drew are HOF caliber players who will exceed my projection, then you've got an arguement.

As for the negativism, maybe you're interpreting what a projection really is for. The projections I threw out for Drew and Quentin are how they would do this year, given enough PAs considering their age, past levels, and performance at those level. The projections have nothing to do with next year, the year after or 5 years down the road. It appears you misinterpret that point.

therealnod · Guest

Everybody's forecasts are age, league, and park adjusted, I'm well aware of this...I'm a baseball nerd too (thought you'd recognize my SN, guess not). I know the common career arcs, which (obviously) uncommon players don't follow.

As far as Quentin is concerned, no, I don't think he's a HOFer, but I think he's got maybe three Peak Year HOF caliber years coming up. Drew strikes me as a different story; I think he's worth the hype. HOFer? How do we know what a HOFer is in the current state of the game? Given his quick tise through the system (and he nearly made the team out of ST), and his age and performance so far, I'm convinced you can ignore his minor league numbers in favor of what we've got now. And the forecasts for this season were based on his minor league numbers, which are scant. It's not at all uncommon for an extraordinary talent to blow through the minors and make the Bigs and put up numbers better than the ones he ever has in the bushes. While the ages don't really line up perfectly, players like A-Rod and Pujols never put up numbers in the minors like they have in the majors. Drew fits right in there somewhat, and I don't see a reason to believe he'll fade to fit the forecasts. Drew appears to be one of those players you can't forecast until he arrives, and that appears to be the case. His comps changed, that's for certain.

Quentin hasn't been up long enough to generate a solid statistical profile, but I like what I've seen, so I'm not favorable to the "wait, he might still suck" POV.