Joined: 02 Oct 2006
Posts: 68
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 8:09 pm Post subject: Who is untouchable?
While the Diamondbacks, besides Mark Mulder, clearly prefers to trade for pitchers like Dontrelle Willis and Jake Westbrook rather than signing a free agent, who is untouchables, unclear, and gone?
My list is like this:
Untouchables - Brandon Webb, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Miguel Montero, Carlos Quentin, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Micah Owings, Ross Ohlendorf, Brett Anderson
Unclear - Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Orlando Hudson, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Carter, Dustin Nippert, Eric Byrnes, Brian Barden, Jose Valverde
Gone - Jorge Julio, Johnny Estrada, Scott Hairston
You think the package of Callaspo, Carter, Nippert, and Hairston net us Willis or Westbrook? If it's for someone like Bonderman, I wouldn't mind throwing in Jackson or Tracy and take out Callaspo if the deal is right. Thoughts?
_________________
Too many girls out there to choose from. Just too many. lol.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1749
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2006 11:12 pm Post subject:
Now that my wife is 4 months pregnant with our second and she practically passes out at 10:30 every night you can add me to that list (although she did give a nice bj last night).
Untouchables - Brandon Webb, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Miguel Montero, Carlos Quentin, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Micah Owings, Ross Ohlendorf, Brett Anderson
Unclear - Chad Tracy, Conor Jackson, Orlando Hudson, Alberto Callaspo, Chris Carter, Dustin Nippert, Eric Byrnes, Brian Barden, Jose Valverde
I agree that Webb, Young, Montero, Drew, Upton, Carlos Gonzalez are untouchable.
I Would like to add Carlos Quentin to that list. But my gut feeling is that Jackson or Quentin might be dealt for the Top pitcher we are looking this offseason.
We are NOT spending top dollars (5 y/ $75 M), so we have to trade a Top Prospect.
If we are looking for Dontrelle Willis or Bonderman kind of players, then we got no choice than to trade Quentin or Jackson.
Remember what Marlins GM got for Josh Becket (Hanley ramirez and Anibal Sanchez). You can only guess what it will take for Marlins to give us Willis.
They will definitely not take Hudson, Byrnes, Callespo, hairston or any other fringe players. They will demand for a top prospect.
If you own dontrelle willis, whom would you ask from D-backs?
Be realistic
Remember, We asked (Young, Vizcaino, Elduque) for Vazquez.
We have to give up similar to that, if we want a Top starting pitcher.
It all comes down to, NOT who is expendable but who is more valuable enough to get a TOP Pitcher.
It means Quentin might be traded. It doesnt mean i want Quentin to go.
I am afraid that might be the price we have to pay for our TOP offseason priority, i.e to get Pitcher of ACE kind to support Webb and Livan.
I Would like to add Carlos Quentin to that list. But my gut feeling is that Jackson or Quentin might be dealt for the Top pitcher we are looking this offseason.
I'd like to see you explain and defend your reasoning that Carlos Gonzalez is untouchable and Carlos Quinten isn't. Why would you place Gonzalez about Quentin?
If only we could get another great deal like Philly gave us a couple years back...Schilling for certifiable garbage (Daal, T. Lee, etc...)
I loved the deal and the following is not to pick on the comment, but to give some insight into what we should expect as to trade possibilities.
Schilling was a 30 something pitcher with a history of arm problems. Padilla at 22 was a hot prospect (much better than anything with have right now). Lee was thought to be a future star if he got his head on straight. Daal had some good years and was thought to be a solid starter. In addition, Schilling orchestrated this trade and the Phils thought they could not afford him.
This would a little like Jackson, Nippert and Estrada (I can't find a good comp for Daal) for Jason Schmidt (assuming Schmidt was signed for one more year at 6.5M). Before the Jacksonsonians get in a dither Jackson>Lee by about the same margin as Padilla v. 2000 > Nippert v. 2006, IMO.
Looking at the result from a stat head point of view. Dall produced 5.4 WARP 1 points for the phils. Lee 8.7 and Padilla 15.9 for a total of 30. The Phils didn't get much for them in trades. Schilling produced 29.4 WARP points for the Dbacks. The Dbacks from Lyon, Fossum and Cruz got 3.6WARP and Lyon is still here.
OTOH, the Dbacks paid 26.5M for Schilling. The Phils 13.3M for their players. I'd say this makes up for the small diff in WARP.
The point is not that getting Schilling was not great for the Dbacks. It was. These types of trades win championships. We need to remember that in evaluating trades. It is not just the flinty eye of a sabermetrician that needs to be used.
As well, they type of team we had built in 2000 would see a larger gain in a Schilling than the 2007 team would assume to see. Not that you don't get him, but the context is an extra consideration.
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 172
Location: Charlotte, NC
Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:24 am Post subject:
I would be really disappointed if we traded Quentin. I think he will quickly turn into the big bopper, rbi machine that we've been missing in our lineup. And on top of that he plays gold glove caliber defense.
TAP, I am giving my reasoning, why i think Quentin might be traded. If i am wrong please let me know why?
Josh Byrnes said that Eric Byrnes will play LF in 2007.
Remember the untouchables, our top priority and let me know why it might not Quentin or jackson.
Dylan Wrote:
Quote:
I'd like to see you explain and defend your reasoning that Carlos Gonzalez is untouchable and Carlos Quinten isn't. Why would you place Gonzalez about Quentin?
Dylan,
Honestly, i havent seen Carlos Gonzalez play, so its unfair for me to compare both Carlos Gonzalez and Quentin.
So i have to trust people who saw both of them and know how to evaluate. That would be the Diamondback Scouts.
According to Diamondback scouts, Here are the TOP 50 Prospects of MLB right now.
I am not going to repeat all the ranking here. Just some of them interest to us
According to Scouts
(Delmon Young is No.1,
Carlos gonzalez is No.5,
Justin Upton is No.7,
Lastings Milledge is No.8,
Stephen Drew is No.9,
Carlos Quentin is No.44,
Montero is No.45)
I hope this would prove that Carlos Gonzalez is more untouchable than Quentin.
If i am wrong then please let me know. I would like to learn.
I'd like to see you explain and defend your reasoning that Carlos Gonzalez is untouchable and Carlos Quinten isn't. Why would you place Gonzalez about Quentin?
Dylan,
Honestly, i havent seen Carlos Gonzalez play, so its unfair for me to compare both Carlos Gonzalez and Quentin.
So i have to trust people who saw both of them and know how to evaluate. That would be the Diamondback Scouts.
According to Diamondback scouts, Here are the TOP 50 Prospects of MLB right now.
I am not going to repeat all the ranking here. Just some of them interest to us
According to Scouts
(Delmon Young is No.1,
Carlos gonzalez is No.5,
Justin Upton is No.7,
Lastings Milledge is No.8,
Stephen Drew is No.9,
Carlos Quentin is No.44,
Montero is No.45)
I hope this would prove that Carlos Gonzalez is more untouchable than Quentin.
If i am wrong then please let me know. I would like to learn.
Here is the "About" for scout.com, which is the parent site for diamondbacks.scout.com:
Quote:
Scout.com is an integrated sports publishing company consisting of two separate divisions that work closely together to deliver a unique and highly integrated Internet and print product offering. The Internet publishing division consists of a network of more than 300 web sites that publish inside and exclusive content focusing on College, NFL, MLB, High School and other professional team sports. The network is managed with Scout’s proprietary Camelot publishing technology that allows publishers to rapidly write, cross-reference, distribute and syndicate stories and information about sports from anywhere in the world. Scout Publishing is the Company’s print publishing division. It produces 45 of the most widely read independent college and professional team focused magazines in the country. Scout Publishing magazines utilize the content and audience of Scout.com to develop, promote and market its editorially rich, high quality, “glossy” monthly magazines. Together, print and Internet publications complement one another enabling each to offer a broad selection of extremely high quality sports related information. Scout directly provides more than 2.1 million people with content, while syndicating 1,100 pieces of content daily, making Scout the most read independent sports publisher in the country.
Now there is nothing wrong with this, but these are not diamondback scouts, they are writers who cover minor league baseball for this particular publication.
While it's ok to consider how publications rank your prospects, it's not good practice to take one and consider it the end all be all of the discussion; even a more respected baseball pub such as Baseball America (note I don't know how BA ranks our players).
Gonzalez had a breakout season in Lancaster, but we've seen several players have a breakout season in Lancaster. His age is a strong benifit in his favor, but next year he's going to start AA at age 21 and Quentin was in AA at age 22. So he's about 1 to 1.5 years ahead, BUT statistically he hasn't even come close to the production Quentin has, even considering his Lancaster season.
Quentin has a career minor league line of .309/.427/.522/.949. Last year Gonzalez broke out with a line of .300/.356/.563/.919. He hasn't yet topped a 900 OPS in any other league/season.
Now Quentin has played in better hitters parks for the most part and this should be considered, but the point isn't to show Quentin as way better than Gonzalez, but to show Gonzalez isn't way better than Quentin.
Bill James once discussed a baseball IQ as looking at the percentages a player had in K:BB (strike zone IQ), SB% (baserunning IQ), and FLD% (defensive IQ). Not perfect, but still worth looking into.
To compare Gonzalez:
K:BB .358
SB% .649
MiLB FLD% is hard to come by, but 13 errors last year, 7 errors in 2005
to Quentin:
K:BB .924
SB% .703
5 errors in 2006, 1 in 2005
Add on to this the fact that we've had reports from people in the know who've said sometimes Gonzalez's head isn't all there nor is his attitude great and Quentin is considered a competitor to a fault and very much a study of the game. It is certainly not as easy a choice as you've made it out to be and what I've presented to you are things that have caused me to sway in the favor of Quentin. Gonzalez isn't going to be ready for a few years at most and the chances of him being a major leaguer are lower than Quentin's even if he might have a higher chance of superstar.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1749
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:28 pm Post subject:
Dylan wrote:
Add on to this the fact that we've had reports from people in the know who've said sometimes Gonzalez's head isn't all there nor is his attitude great and Quentin is considered a competitor to a fault and very much a study of the game.
Great post Dylan (as always). I just wanted to expand on this part a little bit. For the ones who believe strongly in the 'intangibles', from what we've heard about Q - he's got 'em all. Leadership, drive, extreme desire to win, etc.
Sometimes desire to win can be a bad thing. Yes, you have to want to win, but I hear that Q hates losing. One losing streak and he could get really frustrated at the plate.
I do expect him to do great things, though... He needs to stop swinging for the fences every AB, though.
kris, don't take this personally, but I told you a long time ago to stop reading scout.com. you should've listened... it would've actually made you smarter
I'm a really really big homer for CGon. I really think he'll be a superstar. IF he can overcome the hump of Double AA. I believe he has the incredible talent to do just that this year, however.
You are correct tho that both CGon and JUpton are at least two years away from contributing. Quentin is in the majors, and will be helping out over the next couple of years. And beyond.
***
All this talk of "Q will be traded because Byrnes will be extended" is really getting annoying. You would think that someone would have the baseball IQ that Dylan was referring to and just stop with the nonsense
If we call it "Percetage Player Index" does that make it more palatable?
From James NHBA, the worst 10 (as of the date of the book about 2000 I think and not including active players): Dick Stuart, Jim Lemon, Alex Johnson, Hubie Brooks, Dave Kingman, Brian Harper, Pete Incaviglia, John Bateman, Hecktor Lopez and Willie Horton.
Top ten: Joe Morgan, Maxie Bishop, Junior Gilliam, Ozie Smith, Lou Boudreau, Tim Raines, Lu Blue, Willie Kamm, Earle Combs, Barney McCoskey, Tony Gwynn, Joe DiMaggio, Bill Dickey, Buddy Myer and Luke Appling.
I think this is a little like similarity scores. It takes some numbers and tries to make somethkng of them. If you take it too literally you will make some bad errors, but looking at the results, there seems to be some merit in it in a very generalized sense.
That is the players at the top mainly had the rep of being heady players. Those at the bottom bricks. TIFWIIW.
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