| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2404
Location: Gold Canyon
|
 Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:17 pm Post subject: Talent versus experience |
 |
|
There's been a lot of talk about Bob Melvin's addiction to ProvenVeterans™ and how important Bob believes they are to winning. An article by Tom Van Riper today works to dispel that myth.
Some highlights from the article...
| Tom Van Riper wrote: |
Talent versus experience--young arms versus veteran bats.
A lot of industry insiders put plenty of stock in experience, assuming that players who have already been through World Series pressure will have fewer frayed nerves and have a better chance of succeeding. Los Angeles Dodgers general manager Ned Coletti told MLB.com recently that he specifically acquired a slew of veteran players, including five with World Series experience, because "I like to have as many people in the room as possible who have been there before ... they know what it takes."
The numbers, though, show that experience doesn't provide much help. The Dodgers went out meekly in the first round of this year's play-offs, falling to the New York Mets in a three-game sweep. Crotchety teams only go so far, no matter how battle-tested they are.
Since 1960, there have been 30 World Series matchups in which one team had a clear experience advantage over its opponent (the other 15 Series over that span matched either two relative novices or two experienced clubs against each other). Let the record show that in those 30 Series, the more-experienced clubs batted exactly .500--15 wins, 15 losses. So much for the advantage of "having been there before."
If players truly do get extra jitters before their first World Series, it seems to go away after they get that first game under their belts. The more-experienced teams have won 18 of 30 Series-opening games since 1960, but that record hasn't helped them do better than a split when it comes to winning a full Series.
A year ago, when the Yankees reacquired first baseman Tino Martinez, a veteran of their 1996-2001 World Series run, Jeter told MLB's Web site the advantages of bringing back a postseason icon who "knows what to expect in these situations." Indeed, at 37, Martinez probably should have known what to expect. He went zero-for-eight in the team's first round loss to the Los Angeles Angels.
The lesson? Experience is fine, but talent wins. |
The message to Bob Melvin is clear: Stop your dependence on less talented players simply because they've been around longer and "know how to win in a pennant race." Keep that young talent on the field and start building a winner in Arizona!
FULL ARTICLE HERE
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Hank
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Phoenix
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:37 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Damn, Tap, when I started reading that the article works to dispel the myth, I thought it was the "myth" that BoMel loves PV's instead of the myth that PV's are more likely to win. I got excited there for a second... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
TAP
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2404
Location: Gold Canyon
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Hank wrote: |
| Damn, Tap, when I started reading that the article works to dispel the myth, I thought it was the "myth" that BoMel loves PV's instead of the myth that PV's are more likely to win. I got excited there for a second... |
I fear that may take more than just an article.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
EvilJuan
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1870
Location: Phoenix, AZ
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:02 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| TAP wrote: |
| Hank wrote: |
| Damn, Tap, when I started reading that the article works to dispel the myth, I thought it was the "myth" that BoMel loves PV's instead of the myth that PV's are more likely to win. I got excited there for a second... |
I fear that may take more than just an article.
|
It may require a long time of quiet contemplation while between jobs as a manager in MLB...
_________________
Is It Next Season Yet? 
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
moviegeekjn
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1217
Location: Phoenix
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| EvilJuan wrote: |
It may require a long time of quiet contemplation while between jobs as a manager in MLB... |
True that... but if BoMel pays attention to the World Series, he "may" get a clue that it does take more than just PV to get there. The Tigers were carried primarily by their young pitching staff... and even though the Cardinals have a number of PVs, they wouldn't have got by the Mets without their young catcher or their rookie closer.
But from past history, BoMel doesn't learn real fast... his old habits WILL be extremely hard to break, so it really is more likely that he "may" get a clue about this as he awaits his next job (and is forced to play young players for another rebuilding club)
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Polar Bear Fan
AAA Stud
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 55
Location: Scottsdale
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 11:19 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Baseball Prospectus has an article today that examines the "Proven Veterans in the playoffs" theory, and finds that, GASP!, the less experienced team tends to do slightly better!!! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
moviegeekjn
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1217
Location: Phoenix
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 11:33 am Post subject: |
|
|
Well... the only way to get the complete article is to be a subscriber, so couldn't read that portion...
But if the choice is between roughly equal talent, it's a no brainer that experience would be better. OTOH, it it's a choice between better younger talent and worse experienced talent... it's a no brainer to go for the more talented player. BoMel, however, has a propensity to go with the PV regardless of talent level. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
patlawman
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 11
Location: Gilbert, AZ
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 2:09 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Where a manager is confident in his own ability and is able to really guide his team the need for proven veterans is not that important. I think Bo Mel has a good relationship with his players but I don't think his is a great teacher or an inspiring guide. It is not hard to see which managers are really respected by their players and look to him for guidance. In Bo Mel's case he will not change his love for PVs because 1) he relates better to them and 2) he hopes that they will guide the youth and teach them in a way that he is not capable. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
David B
Everyday Player
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 603
Location: Portland
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 8:08 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| moviegeekjn wrote: |
| True that... but if BoMel pays attention to the World Series, he "may" get a clue that it does take more than just PV to get there. The Tigers were carried primarily by their young pitching staff |
More than proven vets, yes, but the key reasons why the Tigers went from 119 losses to WS in three years are...
7 Kenny Rogers (PV) signed to anchor starting staff
6 Jim Leyland is hired as manager
5 Previous crappy Tigers teams allow them draft Justin Verlander with the number two pick
4 Magglio Ordonez (PV) agrees to sign with Detroit, adding to their viability
3 Tigers "steal" Carlos Guillen (Established Vet) from Seattle
2 Tigers let Jeremy Bonderman pitch and learn through 19 loss rookie season
And the number one reason...
1 Ivan Rodriguez (PV) signs with Detroit, giving them credibilty after 119 loss season, paving the way for the Ordonez signing, and having an anchor for the young pitchers to learn from.
I think it's a matter of whether you have impact veterans or just merely PV's. And part of that is the GMs ability to know the difference.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
McCray
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
the tigers went out and got pudge rodriguez after their dismal season -- a sure HOF talent to teach a young staff.
the dbacks went out and got russ ortiz after their dismal season -- assfest.
it's amazing how much crap josh byrnes had to undo before he could even really start building the team he wanted.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stu
Everyday Player
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 560
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:52 pm Post subject: |
|
|
This isn't in response to any of the posts, just some additional random thoughts along the same lines.
The Tigers also signed Jones and took Polanco"s salary (I think, maybe they signed him after the trade, but this was additional salary). They had some failures like Percival and Vina.
The Tigers were smart as in a number of cases, like Ordonez and IRod, they had injury outs. However, do you think they would have taken on this type of salary if there had not been revenue sharing and the promise of it even if the players bombed?
I did not notice what a great year Guillen had 320/400/519 137 OPS+. Jeter was 343/417/483, 138 OPS+. Are people mentioning Guillen in the same breath as Jeter for MVP? Is Guillen as good a defender as Jeter? Those are awesome numbers for a defensive position. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guitar Salad
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 137
Location: Ventura, CA
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
ROFL
Mac, you just gave me a great new word to try out in various situations.
_________________
Ha ha! Charade you are...
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
McCray
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 21, 2006 11:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
use it all you want, gs. i've found you can add "ass" to just about anything.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
