Diamondbacks Bullpen

Zephon · Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 6:40 pm Post subject: Stephen Drew Crystal Ball...

John Sickels did a Crystal Ball on Stephen Drew over at Minorleagueball today. What's your guys take on it? I think his peak will be a lot better, but oh well.
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-Zephon

DBACKSHEELSPANTHS · Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:05 pm Post subject:

Funny how he has Drew with 7 triples this year in 197 ABs and 8 triples next year in 412. Just something that caught my eye. Smile

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GO DBACKS!

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

funny how drew ends up with the mofo gnats... not.

Robert S. · Everyday Player Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 530

I'm calling it: Drew will have a better career than Reyes.

Catharsis · Journeyman Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 338

So 2013 will be his MVP year. .341 avg, 131 RBIs, 33 HRs, 197 hits, and 115 runs.

316 HRs...that would put him in 3rd place all-time (I believe) for most HRs by a SS. HoF?

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:25 pm Post subject:

The wonders that you can do with a Magic 8 Ball...
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shoewizard · Posted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 7:41 pm Post subject:

Man....if you could give me that career RIGHT NOW...I would take it.
In a heartbeat.
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

Bob A · MLB Rookie Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 229 Location: Tucson

I agree. After watching Drew in Tucson (and Quentin too for that matter) I think they both have the potential to be stars. They are however, playing somewhat over their heads right now. I don't think they will be .320 hitters for long (of course I hope I'm wrong). I think they'll both settle comfortably in the .280s. Still a .280 shortstop with power and good defensive abilities is never a bad thing.

NJ-DBACKS-FAN · Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 5:21 am Post subject:

the white sox and the cubs than the gspots???????

where does he get that reasoning????

hahahahhahaha

soory i find it funny to predict where a dude is playing in 13 years!

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 8:36 am Post subject:

It's just for fun. Nobody takes it seriously
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Aug 11, 2006 10:53 am Post subject:

I would so take that career. The guy could be a legitimate HOF candidate if he keeps taking the low outside pitch to LF.
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shoewizard · Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:03 pm Post subject:

Thought I might mention here that Drew has a .429 BABIP...far and away the highest of any D Back with over 100 PA. Davanon is 2nd on the team with a .339

I'd expect a good 50 point drop in Drews batting avg in the next couple of weeks.

Source: The Hardball Times stat section
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

EvilJuan · Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:38 pm Post subject:

OK... I'm confused (again)...

As a sabr-rookie, I thought BABIP was a pitching-related statistic. Am I missing something in this discussion of Drew's batting?

Shocked

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Hank · Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:42 pm Post subject:

BABIP stands for Batting Average for balls in play. Thus, it is measuring how frequently the player gets a hit when he actually makes contact with the ball--batting average with strikeouts removed.

Shoe's contention is that BABIP tends to regress toward a mean average, so when it is high, BABIP means a player is getting lucky and should show a decline in average, while a low BABIP may mean that a player is unlucky and should soon see an improvement in his batting average.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

EvilJuan · Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 4:58 pm Post subject:

So to calculate BABIP for any given hitter, the formula for BA (h/ab) is tweaked to resemble something like H/(AB-SO)?

Oh, never mind - I just found it in the THT Glossary:

(H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)

But wait: why does THT strip out home runs? (And if you ignore that, the formula reverts to the one I derived above...) Aren't home runs hits, after all?

I don't mean to belabor this... but I still appear to be missing something... Embarassed

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Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

Home Runs are not "Balls in Play" (except for the extremely rare inside the park variety, but we can overlook those).

BABIPs belong to pitchers and batters, but the context relies on the defense being able to make a play on the ball. That's why HR and Ks are removed. Defense can't field those.

Hank · Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 5:19 pm Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 6:16 pm Post subject:

Dylan just gave you the brief explanation.

A homerun is not a ball in play, therefore it is not defense dependent, and less dependent on luck. (Although there IS luck involved in Homeruns too)

So when you see a guy with unusually high or unusually low Batting Average on Balls in Play, (a ball in play being anything other than a walk, k, or HR) there usually is going to be some regression to the mean.

Earlier in the year, Shawn Green had a .370 something BABIP...all those seeing eye ground balls....hence his "hot streak". Of course his BABIP regressed closer to league average, and therefore his batting average dropped.

There are other factors, depending on the player, that can keep his batting average up, despite a low BABIP. If he hits ALOT of homeruns, then of course his overall batting average won't drop despite a low BABIP.
Hence, Albert Pujols, despite having a .287 BABIP, still has a .329 BA, because he hits so many homers. FYI, Pujols had a BABIP in the .230's earlier in the season, despite having a very good line drive percentage. It's come up to .287, but still below league average. Pujols has been unlucky this year. His batting average should be higher.

While it is not impossible or unusual for a player to maintain a very high BABIP, say above .350 for an entire year, it is unheard of in todays MLB for a guy to have a .429 BABIP. (Ichiro DID have a .400 BABIP in 2004 when he set the hits record...special case there) Hence my prediction that Drews average will come down, sharply. It's got no where else to go.

As far as Dylan's speculation about his walk rate and OBP...we don't know that his walk rate will go up all that much, or enough to offset his probable drop in BABIP. It might, but it might not.
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 3:23 pm Post subject:

Is there a metric for the altitude of a player's ball contact?
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dirtygary · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 3:24 pm Post subject:

Sounds great, doesn't it.

I'm getting at grounders, liners, pop-ups, etc.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 3:35 pm Post subject:

If you are talking about the percentage of grounders, line drives, popups, etc....yes, you can get that info from player pages at

http://www.hardballtimes.com/

When you get to the home page, just got to the Stats section at the top right, and navigate around. You can find stats by team, or you can look up individual players by typing their name in the box provided.
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League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.