Joined: 02 Oct 2006
Posts: 68
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 4:42 pm Post subject: Pitching Rotation 2007 and Our Pitching Prospects
1. Brandon Webb
Very formidable, solid, right guy to have as your #1. Cy Young Winner.
Projected Stats: 19-7 2.89ERA
2. Jeremy Bonderman
Hopefully we can get him and I think we will be able to.
Projected Stats: 16-6 3.28ERA
3. Livan Hernandez
He will eat up inning and will return to form.
Projected Stats: 14-8 3.91ERA
4. Claudio Vargas
Honestly, not so bad for the bottom of the rotation guy.
Projected Stats: 12-10 4.76ERA
5. Edgar Gonzalez
Will be given a shot, but soon will be replaced by Owings or Ohlendorf.
Projected Stats: 10-5 4.50ERA
Here's list of our "good" pitching prospects
1. Micah Owings
Deserved a pitcher of the year award and is the real deal, here.
2. Ross Ohlendorf
He can thorw heaters right by the hitters and expected to be at least #3.
3. Greg Smith
Dominated the Single-A early last season and will continue to do so.
4. Matt Torra
He is often injured, but when he's not, he can dominate.
5. Brett Anderson
Young lefty from high schooler who is veryn crafty and polished for 18.
6. Brooks Brown
Sandwhich pick in 2006 draft who dominated his college career.
7. Max Schertzer
Not signed, yet, but can throw high-90's and will become that "something"
In 2006 first-year player draft, we drafted 3 pitchers who were projected to go in the first 30 picks, (Anderson, Brown, and Schertzer.) The future looks mighty bright to me in the pitching side, too!
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Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:17 pm Post subject:
you just couldn't give webb that 20th win, could you?
i REALLY want bonderman, but i don't see it happening. i think he is THE guy to get, though -- i just don't think byrnes will want to pay what it'd take in prospects to get the guy.
livan, nobody knows. he could return to form, but i'd be shocked if he did so by that far a margin. as long as he eats up innings with a sub 4.50 era, i'm a happy camper.
claudio vargas staying in the rotation is proof that god hates me. even more proof than the fact that he made me a tigers fan.
i'd give both of the flying gonzalez brothers a shot in the rotation, myself. i think edgar will post better stats, but i think enrique will be a better pitcher. i'm wary of my position, though -- both dylan and shoewiz jumped all over the chance to make a bet against my idea. uh oh.
i'm still not 100% sold on micah, just because the times i or someone i knew saw him, we all had the same report -- high fastballs that got hit hard, but somehow got hit for outs. i think he might need a bit more time to work on getting that fastball to the corners or polishing his breaking stuff. he will be good, i really think so. but i think he might need at least half, if not all of the 06 season in AAA.
i haven't seen ohlendorf, but i really want to. same for smith. torra had something big done to his shoulder -- i forget what it was -- but i know a lot of people were thinking he was done. it's good to see the kid turning it around, but the big question with him IMO is whether or not he can stay healthy and fully recover his velocity and control. anderson and brown i haven't seen, but scherzer looked really good in the game i saw on espn.
finally, the pitching future is starting to look good!
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Tucson, AZ until 3/6... then back to San Francisco
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:18 pm Post subject:
Nothing wrong with optimism.
I don't think AZ will be willing to pay the price in prospects that it will take to acquire Bonderman. Would you really want them to if it cost, say, Conor Jackson?
How did you arrive at your projections, or are they just your own estimates? Because if Livan accomplishes that I'd be ecstatic-- I would have just witnessed a miracle.
And would you rather have Vargas-- who's pretty much shown us what he's got: inconsistency-- than Enrique? I think Enrique's got some mighty good stuff. IMHO, he should be given every opportunity to make the '07 rotation.
I'm excited as well about the new up and coming crop of pitchers! You forgot to mention Dallas Buck as well. It was fun watching him pitch this summer. I'm pretty sure they won't let Scherzer go. I just hope they make it as least dramatic as they can with Boras and just get it done.
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Tucson, AZ until 3/6... then back to San Francisco
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:22 pm Post subject:
LOL... jeez McCray... we just said all the same (bleep) basically.
It seems like Torra is going to be fine. I sort of remember a scouting report at the end of the season that seemed to say his recovery was great. Better than expected. Isn't he one of those precision/control guys?
I know what you mean about Owings... another Houdini® in the making?
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Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:46 pm Post subject:
i'm not a huge fan of control guys. they're useful, sure, but i'll take "stuff" guys any day of the week over "control" stuff, twice on sundays.
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Location: Gold Canyon
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:57 pm Post subject:
Jack Magruder / East Valley Tribune today wrote:
Vargas, 12-10 with a 4.83 ERA in his best major league season, had an MRI that showed no structural damage to his left knee.
Vargas is expected to enter spring training with a hold on the fourth or fifth spot in the starting rotation, depending on a trade or the possible return of Miguel Batista, with Juan Cruz, Enrique Gonzalez and Edgar Gonzalez among the contenders for a final spot.
Minor league right-handers Micah Owings and Ross Ohlendorf also “certainly could be factors in ’07,” general manager Josh Byrnes said in his postseason analysis Sunday.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1555
Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:25 pm Post subject:
oh, sorry. i fail at reading comp, evidently.
i think he's control, but i'm not certain. it seems as though this org usually drafts control guys, with the occasional high upside stuff guy.
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What about Steven Jackson? Had great numbers in AA.....according to Southern League stats page, he was second in the league in ERA. WL does not seem to be indicative of performance.....team has to score runs in order for pitcher to get a win. See he is a AZ Fall League invitee too.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:13 pm Post subject:
Definitely looking forward to seeing Jackson in AZFL
Would love to know if he is "for real"
I agree the W-L record doesn't mean anything.
45/125 BB/K ratio in 149 innings looks decent, although 7.55 K/9 for a 24 yr. old in AA is nothing to write home about. He is probably going to be low 6's, high 5's in the majors.
The two things that really stand out to me:
Just 6 homers allowed
243 groundballs 109 fly balls only 56 line drives
His GO/AO ratio is 2.10
So it's pretty obvious what type of pitcher he is and how he might fit in around here. It will be fun to see if he can keep the ball down in the AZFL and avoid homers there too. If he can do that, he might make it up here sooner than alot of people think.
I believe the story on jackson is that he doesnt thorw very hard - even for a sinker guy. Maybe someone can confirm, but i heard they are worried about his sinker translating to upper levels...
• Diamondbacks righthander Steven Jackson was dominant in Tennessee's 6-2 win over Double-A Carolina on Thursday, tossing six shutout innings against the Mudcats. Jackson, a 10th-round pick in 2004 out of Clemson, allowed six hits, walked two and struck out 10. "He's impressive with that big, prototypical pitcher's body," Carolina pitching coach Rich Gale said. "He's got that heavy sinker and he just pounds it at you--as soon as he gets ahead, there's that splitter. It's a plus pitch. And sometimes, it might have even been plus-plus. We're talking a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale)."
Quote:
Q: Gil from Charleston, SC asks:
Steven Jackson (Diamondbacks) had a great season at Double-A Tennesse, is the big club pretty high on him and if so when you see him making it to the bigs? Love the chats
A: John Manuel: I like Stephen Jackson as a sinker-slider guy; he was a guy they loved at Clemson, but he just had such a straight, hard 4-seam fastball, he was susceptible against metal bats. He was very steady this year, nice job of developing his sinker by the D-backs, and I think he can be a very effective middle reliever with his ability to get groundballs. I might be selling him short but I see him more in that role than as a starter.
Quote:
Three Is The Magic Number
The Diamondbacks are also high on righthanders Garrett Mock, Ross Ohlendorf and Steven Jackson, who join Smith and Chico in the Tennessee rotation.
Mock, a third-round pick out of Houston in 2004, has better stuff than his numbers indicate. The 23-year-old righthander has a full arsenal of pitches, starting with a heavy four-seamer that touches 95. He also mixes in a cut fastball at 88-92 and rounds his repertoire out with a pair of quality breaking balls. Mock got shelled early in the Southern League, going 1-4, 5.13 in April, but he's come on since the break with 3-3, 3.61 numbers in June and July. Overall, he was 4-8, 4.40 with 104 strikeouts in 117 innings. Still, the high number of hits Mock allows is cause for concern--he allowed 202 hits in 174 innings last season, and had given up 119 so far this year.
"His stuff's been good all year, but sometimes I think he just throws too many strikes and that leads to the high hit total," Rizzo said. "He's a tough nut, and this is a very important year for him developmentally. The hits are one part of the equation, but what you look for is that ability to work through it and he's done that with some success this season."
Ohlendorf, a fourth-rounder in 2004 out of Princeton, spent all of last season at low Class A South Bend before skipping the Cal League. Through 130 innings, the 23-year-old was 7-6, 3.05 with just 18 walks and 78 strikeouts. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound Ohlendorf features a sinker that sits anywhere from 90-93, topping out at 95 and backs that up with an average slider and changeup.
"He was a guy who would just rear back and throw hard in college--he just really didn't have a good feel for pitching," Rizzo said. "But as he's toned the fastball down some, he has much, much better command. And I think the most important thing he's learned is how to become a much more intellectual pitcher--take the ground ball and limit your pitch count."
Jackson rounds out the group of strong, physical arms with present stuff and future upside. A 10th-rounder out of Clemson in 2004, Rizzo was scouting Drew Meyer when South Carolina visited the Tigers that season, and came away with a solid impression of the 6-foot-5 righthander. Smokies manager Bill Plummer said Jackson has come along this year by deepening his sinker-slider repertoire, but still must improve his secondary pitches to combat lefthanded hitters. They were batting .331 against him with a .548 slugging percentage.
"He really could have been an all-star for us, but his win-loss isn't great," Plummer said of Jackson, just 4-8 despite a 2.80 ERA that ranks 10th in the Southern League. "His fastball is just 89-90 (mph) but it has outstanding sink. He's got the slider too, but his split has really improved and he commands his changeup better."
Since then, Jackson has come on strong--and like Ohlendorf, the 24-year-old jumped straight from South Bend to the Southern League this season. Jackson has good command of his average fastball, and his size allows him to get an easy downward angle. His fastball might be in the 90 mph range, but it has good late life at the plate, and he can work it to all four quadrants of the zone.
He also features a slurvy breaking ball and an above-average changeup that has played a large role in his 2.94 ERA in 98 innings with the Smokies this season.
"It's almost like we didn't expect this," Rizzo said. "He would have been easy to pass by. But to get a guy in the 10th round that now has a chance to be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter in the big leagues, we feel pretty good about what he's been doing."
Last edited by qudjy1 on Thu Oct 05, 2006 4:01 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:57 pm Post subject:
David B wrote:
Wow allstar, you have the Dbacks rotation 35 games over .500. There's being optimistic, and then there's drinking the kool aid
And I don't think Bonderman is going anywhere.
i don't think he's going anywhere right now, but before the end of his contract, i think he is a definite goner. no more compensation draft picks, and also, detroit has pulled a lot from their farm this season. they're going to need to replenish the well. rather than have him leave for nothing, trade him for upper level prospects.
i still doubt az gets him, but i can dream.
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I hate to even say this... Jackson sure does sound alot like Webb..
- hard sinker around 87-90,
- slurvy breaking ball...
- 6-5, big kid.
- A little on the older side..
- kind of a surprize to everyone...
I don't think AZ will be willing to pay the price in prospects that it will take to acquire Bonderman. Would you really want them to if it cost, say, Conor Jackson?
I'd do it in a second. Move Tracy back to first, let Callaspo play 3B and get that second badass in the rotation. Tracy will do everything that CJ has done at 1B and better (.994 FP at 1B, 5 E's in 97 games vs. .988 & 17 E's in 149 gms for CJ). Also, I'd look for Tracy to have a rebound year at the plate. If Callaspo at 3B is no good, then we still have Byrnes and Estrada to bring in a 3B and let Davanaon and Hairston platoon in LF.
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Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 5:36 pm Post subject:
i'd do that deal in a second, too, but i think tracy is a downgrade at 1st from jackson. i LOVE jackson's eye, it's a strong plus. does tracy have any strong plus features to his offensive game?
still, i'd drive jackson myself all the way to the michigan state line for bonderman. i would take him all the way, but i'd be mugged, and so would he, most likely.
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Without all the zone rating crap, Tracy had a higher FP, so how is he a downgrade? Also, lefties are better for fielding the throw to first cuz of the whole glove on the right hand thing, especially from the catcher and short rollers down the line.
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does tracy have any strong plus features to his offensive game?
He's 17 pts higher in BA and 58 pts in OPS vs. righties, which is about 2/3's of the AB's. Tray can't hit lefties, but if you had to choose which side to have an advantage against, I'll take the guy that hits righties better.
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Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:36 pm Post subject:
Cost for production makes it a no-brainer. Tracy either needs to have a bounce-back season in '07 or get traded for whatever pitching they can get for him.
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Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:36 pm Post subject:
I think Jackson will be a better hitter long term than tracy....but Jackson for Bonderman would have to be something they would seriously consider if that offer came up.
I think Jackson will be a better hitter long term than tracy....but Jackson for Bonderman would have to be something they would seriously consider if that offer came up.
It won't.
Yeah, no chance. That's why we would do it in a heartbeat. With role reversal, what would you want for Bonderman? I'd want a hell of a lot more than Jackson. Drew would be the only guy that I would consider. And if Callaspo gets his offensive production up...
And yes, Tracy needs to get back to around a +.300 BA and +.840 OPS, or he's a cost/production casualty. And we were so fired up when they locked him up for a few more years.
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