Diamondbacks Bullpen

[1golfer1]

watching last coupla minutes of an awesome show on discovery science regarding baseball sabremetrics!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! repeats at 8pm phoenix time!!!!!!!!!!

[Guitar Salad]

Balls! I don't have that channel. It's one of my favorites, but it's not worth the extra I have to pay to get the next tier of programming from DishNetwork.
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Ha ha! Charade you are...

[1golfer1]

that blows.

[foulpole]

Thanks for the heads up golfer.

You get one free drop ( one club length, no nearer the hole ) for the info.

[1golfer1]

i get a free drop anyway! what else ya got?

[foulpole]

I could sing you a strawman song.

[Oden]

I've seen it in the past - if it's the one I'm thinking of. Good stuff.

[1golfer1]

[foulpole]

[1golfer1]

you da man!

[McCray]

a) santa fe wheat does, indeed, rock.

b) i saw the last couple minutes. does it repeat? if so, i'd be happy to tape it for those on this board who don't have the channel. just let me know.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

[TAP]

I just watched it for the first time and the show packed quite a bit into one hour. Bill James and his sabermetric concepts were the subject, and Alan Schwarz, Sr. Writer at Baseball America, provided a number of comments throughout in support of James.

The show first introduced uninitiated viewers to the basic sabermetric concepts of OBP, Park Effect, and Win Shares and explained why these were important.

Then Sandy Alderson’s tenure as GM of Oakland was discussed. Sandy said that he had very little baseball knowledge going into his job as GM, and that he saw this as an advantage because he wasn’t indoctrinated with old school thinking.

Terry Francona was featured as a field manager that has seen the adoption of sabermetrics by his Red Sox FO as a boon to his team’s success, culminating in their 2004 World Championship. Through use of sabermetrics, Terry rethought batting order, stolen bases, and bullpen use.

Bill James claims that field managers make about 11,000 discreet judgments in the course of a season. With so many decisions, avoiding the out offensively is the most critical.

James came to the conclusion by 1977 that batting order doesn’t matter as long as your best hitters are positioned toward the top of the order.

James says the sacrifice play is a bad tradeoff because the out is worth more than the base gained. He discussed run expectancy to support this assertion.

He also says the stolen base is extremely over-valued. Even though base stealers are successful more than 70% of the time, the times that they are caught stealing nullify any gains from the bases that they do steal.

He very briefly mentioned that IBB’s are almost always a poor move.

The narrator talked about the advent of relief specialists in the 1980’s, which led to a discussion of closers. James used Win Probability to determine if closers are really necessary. He determined that by the time closers come into games in save situations, their team is already 95% likely to win. James says that closers (your best pitchers) have the biggest impact / should be used in the 7th inning when your team is down a run or tied.

The narrator said that baseball has traditionally been 20 years behind the times, whether it be with weightlifting or with statistical analysis.

The various baseball eras were explored, with the Pre-1920 dead ball era (balls were used until they literally unraveled on the field), the 1920-1940 live ball era (balls were replaced as soon as they became dirty), and the 1940-1968 pitchers domination era.

To determine who the best players of all time were, James had to consider the different eras, parks, etc. to come up with similarity scores. With similarity scores, players are assigned a 1,000 benchmark score, and then differences between players result in deductions from 1,000. If a player has a score of 850 or greater, he is considered to be the same as a benchmark player.

Bill James’ All-time Greatest Roster:
P – Roger Clemens
C – Yogi Berra (He said it could be Josh Gibson, but there’s insufficient data to judge his performance)
1B – Lou Gehrig
2B – Joe Morgan (the man that disdains sabermetrics )
3B – Mike Schmidt
SS – Honus Wagner
LF – Ted Williams
CF – Willie Mays
RF – Babe Ruth

What’s in the future? The last bastion of sabermetrics is fielding. Fielding measurements available today are primitive and badly organized.

Baseball Info Solutions is a company, led by John Dewan, that is devoted to finding definitive defensive metrics to accurately determine who adds and who detracts value defensively.

Discussed as future ideas for accurately assessing defense were:
- cameras above every stadium to observe every player
- plotters built into the field below the surface to measure balls in play
- chips in the baseballs
- chips in shoes

In closing, Doug Mirabelli countered by saying that stats are just a piece of the puzzle and you have to consider human factors (the dreaded intangibles).

James had the final say, using the analogy that the real world is like a chess board that’s a billion pieces wide by a billion pieces long, and that it’s impossible to get ahead by just knowing 2 or 3 moves in advance. He said that no matter how advanced and accurate sabermetrics becomes, it will never be the absolute final answer. It’s just an idea.

[foulpole]

[shoewizard]

Great summary Tap...thanks.

I turned on the TV right in the middle of the Alderson part. I started recording from there.

I'll watch it later.

[shoewizard]

[foulpole]

[stu]

Thanks for the summary TAP.

In his NHBA, James devised something that he originally called baseball IQ and then changed to the "Percentage Player Index". Guess who was at the top.

Morgan was followed by Maxie Bishop, Jim Gilliam, Ozzie Smith and Lou Boudreau.

Of the worst percentage players: Dick Stuart, Jim Lemon, Alex Johnson, Hubie Brooks, Dave Kingman.

I know you guys don't like Joe, but to me he is the best announcer at explaining the game on the field. I'll agree that he says some silly things about the broader concepts.

[foulpole]

[matt]

TAP, tell me you were taking notes because you summed it up perfectly. I thought it was entertaining although James was very ackward on camera. He was kind of a distraction.

[EvilJuan]

Excellent summary, TAP! I tuned in about 20 minutes late, but found it extremely interesting.
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