Diamondbacks Bullpen

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:38 pm Post subject: Hudson's D

Just a thought I had. Heard Hudson was up to 12 errors, twice what he had in TOR. Was thinking if something might be a cause for that. A couple things came to mind. Primarily the surface change. Toronto's turf must have given truer hops a higher majority of the time, eliminating one or two bad bounces that he might have encountered at Chase this year. Second, the grass is slower than turf, so he might have been able to get to more grounders than he did in TOR, but then he had to make a tougher throw that could have led to another couple of errors this year.

Just thinking that there might be a source for the increase in errors due to the change in fields, etc.

Any stats claiming otherwise, such as a lower balls fielded ratio, etc. "Or maybe something really cool that I don't even know about."
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David B · Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:40 pm Post subject:

The surface in Toronto is artificail turf, which I'm sure plays truer than the sometimes sun-baked infield at Chase.

McCray · Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:43 pm Post subject:

i looked at his numbers (shoe, we need you back), and here's what i found:

12 errors isn't that far out of line. he had 6 in 05, but 12 in both 04 and 03. so it's not that far off his norms, it seems.

his fielding % is pretty much the same as it was before. the lowest it's been is .984, the highest was .991. this year he's at .985. not that big of a dip.

his range factor and zr are at career lows:

RF ZR
06 5.46 .802
05 5.84 .839
04 5.80 .830
03 5.84 .837

also, his innings have gone up a lot this year: he's at 1331 now, up from 1068 last year.

so... he's played a lot more this year than ever before, and his RF and ZR both dropped close to forty points. maybe the two are related? the innings work load with the new grass to adjust to might have caused it.

i was surprised at his RF and ZR drop. i didn't see that big of a drop coming -- even though i've been as critical as most of you about his range to his right at times. it's more of a drop than i was expecting, though.

anyone who understands these numbers better want to chime in and tell me where i've gone horribly awry?
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Hank, you're dead to me.

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:20 pm Post subject:

OK, so his range factors and ZR's dropped when he switched to a natural field. I said earlier that the ball slows down on grass as opposed to turf, but I forgot to mention that you don't get as good a grip on the surface if it's dirt of natural grass as opposed to artificial turf, and it slows the jump on the ball. So maybe, even though the ball is slightly slowed down by the grass, there is more of a loss of speed with the spikes on dirt or grass than on art turf.

Hudson seemed pretty consistent in those 3 yrs in TOR.

Any chance we could isolate ZR's and range factors for players on turf vs. grass? Is this a common phenomenon?
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Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

You can't disect the causes of the 12 errors until you know how many are throwing and how many are fielding. Truer hopes on artificial turf don't prevent wild throws.

shoewizard · Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:13 am Post subject:

Well, yes....except perhaps having to field ball more awkwardly due to less predictable hops has caused him to end up in a bad throwing position a few times more than might have occurred with all those true hops he was getting on turf.

I don't know....just trying to think like a player. I can remember getting all set to field a ball, and have my feet set to make a throw, and then the ball does something crazy and I'm all twisted around just trying to react to the hop and end up making a shitty throw.

Just hypothesizing.

dirtygary · Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:19 am Post subject:

YBC-Dog · Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:04 am Post subject:

I posted this to McCray on the MLB board in defense of O-Dawg's case for the Gold Glove. I figured it would probably get a better discussion out here.

I don't know if he'll get it, but I think you can make the case for him deserving it. I disagree with the range issues, and I'm starting to think that ZR is bogus and somewhat subjective.

Most of the mistakes that I saw O-Dog make were just that...boneheaded mistakes. Overall I think his range and defense are about as good as it gets. His range to his right IS a little worse, but still very good.

I think to his left, he really saved Conors ### this year, especially early in the season. I think there would have been a lot more complaints about his defense had O-Dog not been there to back ground balls to the right side that went past him that O-Dog gobbled up.

He also takes charge like I love seeing in the field. He really makes everyone around him better, and I think that statement is thrown around a lot (and maybe I'm throwing it around right here).

A big number for me?

Assists.

O-Dog has 510...85 more than anyone else in Baseball (Chase Utley comes in 2nd at 425). He Also has the most DPs, though his lead is much slimmer there. Here is Hudson stacked up against Chase Utley, who I think is possibly the other leading candidate.

NAME INN TC PO A E DP F% RF ZR
Hudson, Ari 1349.0 834 311 510 13 116 .984 5.48 .804
Utley, Phi 1367.1 800 357 425 18 115 .978 5.15 .823

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 560

Just asking here. Not trying to start a fight, but how many of Hudson's errors are attributable to Jackson. I way would be Jackson simply not catching a catchable ball that Hudson gets the error for. The second way is that Hudson has in his mind that he has to throw the ball in a certain way and tries to adjust his throw.

Hudson did change his throwing style on easy ball. he would lob some throws to Jackson like a father lobbing the ball to his kid. A friend said that the lights cause problems on some straight throws.

David B · Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:19 am Post subject:

Oden · Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 12:01 pm Post subject:

Need to know how many of Hudson's E's were throwing and how many were fielding. I don't know off the top of my head. But you don't just judge a player's D by his E's either. Skimming over poor plays in the field that did not go for E's isn't a valid "I told you so."

Counsell · MLB Rookie Joined: 28 Aug 2006 Posts: 220

12 errors is not that many at all for a 2B - almost inconsequential. It would be nice if he only made half that, but how more many runs given up would that mean? Very few.

Once a player is below a certain number of errors, the only way to judge his fielding is by range (and skill at turning two for a 2B).

McCray · Posted: Sun Oct 08, 2006 12:54 pm Post subject:

i hate errors. i think errors should be tied to bases allowed. when hudson gets an error for a bad throw that allows an out to become a runner on first, that's bad. but when tracy throws into the dugout and an out becomes a runner in scoring position, that's much worse, right? there should really be a qualifier along with errors, IMO.
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Hank, you're dead to me.

Counsell · MLB Rookie Joined: 28 Aug 2006 Posts: 220

At the risk of stating the obvious, range is MUCH more important than avoiding errors. The name of the game is outs. A half dozen more errors results in 6 fewer outs. But a lot more range may result in 50 to 100 more outs over the course of a season.

And when you have more range you're much more at risk of being called for an error, because there are not only more plays, but more DIFFICULT plays.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

coop981 · AA Prospect Joined: 07 Oct 2006 Posts: 42 Location: Peoria

Of Hudson's 13 errors, 7 were throwing errors and 6 were fielding errors. Of the throwing errors; 1 to SS, 1 to 3B or C (cant remember off hand and the play-by-play on ESPN is unclear), 1 I am unsure of the destination (Jackson was on 1st), another 3 were to Jackson at 1st and 1 was to Clark at 1st.

Date/(T/F)/Game Location/Destination of throw (if throwing E)
May 9/T/@Pirates/Clark
May 13/F/@Cardinals
June 3/F/@Braves
June 11/F/Home
June 18/F/@Rangers
June 27/T/Home/Jackson
July 5/T/@Dodgers/Easley(SS)
July 26/F/@Phillies
July 31/T/@Cubs/Jackson
Aug 16/F/@Rockies
Aug 21/T/@Giants/Unsure of throw destination-Jackson at 1st
Sept 12/T/Home/Jackson
Sept 27/T/@Giants/C or 3B

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1358

O-Dawg is far from our biggest defensive concern.

CJ and Tracy are at the forefront and if Tracy moves back to 1st both of those D problems are solved. IMHO.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1763

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:16 pm Post subject:

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:51 pm Post subject:

Dan · Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:58 pm Post subject:

Welcome to the board, Coop!

dirtygary · Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 3:03 pm Post subject:

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:05 pm Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2006 8:29 pm Post subject:

Yeah, my bad too.

I meant Jackson being at his highest trade value as a compliment to his play, but the ceiling issues are what concern me. Tracy vs. Jackson long term is the toughest decision we have. This year could be the outlier of what is a great career for Tracy - extended seasons of +.300 BA, +30 HR's, +100 RBI's. Or it could be the signal that he got figured out, like he wasn't able to make the last adjustment, especially to lefties.

Jackson willl be solid. Numerically, it says that he's going to be a stud for us, and will produce, etc., but there isn't anything in particular that he accels at other than taking pitches. I look at both of them over the next 5 years, and I would be less surprised if Tracy had the big-time, all-star seasons at the plate.

Callaspo should be the utility guy this year, and then should be ready to take over for Hudson at 2B in '08. It'll be cool watching that whole transition in the middle infield take place, especially with two guys that played in the minors together. Trammell/Whitaker???? Hopefully Drew won't try to royally screw us.
_________________
The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun