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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:41 am    Post subject: news & views Reply with quote

Aldrete out?

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=74791

Quote:
The life of a professional athlete, player or coach can be demanding, and D-Backs hitting coach Mike Aldrete is considering a career change following this season.

“I’m thinking I might want to watch my family grow up,” Aldrete admitted Friday, seeming torn.

Aldrete’s family lives year-round in the Monterrey, Calif., his hometown, and Aldrete has two teenage sons and a daughter.

No decision has been made, but if Aldrete leaves, the D-Backs have capable coaching candidates in Triple-A manager Chip Hale and minor league field coordinator Jack Howell.

Florida interviewed Howell about a coaching position last season, and an American League team has shown interest for him as a hitting coach in 2007.



Eric Byrnes in da house?

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/0923dbnb0923.html

Quote:
The Diamondbacks and Byrnes' agent have started trying to get a new deal for the outfielder, although nothing is imminent.

Byrnes would like a multiyear contract, however, Mike Sasson said, adding terms and salary figures have yet to be discussed.

"Eric loves it in Arizona and he's been a pretty popular fit there, so yes, we'd like to get something done and a longer-term deal is something we would definitely consider entertaining," Sasson said.


Well, I'd prefer to see Byrnes traded for pitching, but IF the Dbacks sign him to a multi year deal, it should NOT be for more than 2 years. If the Dbacks have decided Hairston has no future in LF and AZ and want to go with Byrnes, they need to plan on having either CGon or Upton take his place in the OF out of spring training in 2008...
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tmar
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There should be a word or phrase for it, as we've done it so often but we'll likely sign him to a long enough term deal that we'll end up eat some of the tail end just to get rid of him when his performance reverts to the mean.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So as someone else said....we'llhave Byrnes blocking a better younger player instead of Gonzo. Oh well.
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stu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There should be a word or phrase for it, as we've done it so often but we'll likely sign him to a long enough term deal that we'll end up eat some of the tail end just to get rid of him when his performance reverts to the mean.

This isn't quite this, but it is close to what we used to call the IBM syndrome. That is companies would buy IBM products not because they were the best or the cheapest, but because they were the safe choice.

The thing was IBM had good products. With baseball teams, it is accepting a barely competent player because he is "proven". Bill James, I think, had an article on this. He called it the Tom Brookens Syndrome. Brookens was a 3b for the Tigers when they had those great teams with Whitaker, Parish, Trammel. They won twice I think.

James theory was that they continued to run Brookens out at third because he was good guy and they knew what they would get. He was well below average at a position where they could have gotten more offense. Yet they didn't want to take risks.

Byrnes has now become a safe and now relatively expensive choice. I liked him at 2M per year to play cf. I hate him at 4M per year to play lf and hate a long term contract even more.

Maybe some of you Jamesians can help me with my recollection of this article.

BTW, the Tigers had Howard Johnson at one time and traded him for Walt Terrell.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/brookto01.shtml
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EvilJuan
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tmar wrote:
There should be a word or phrase for it, as we've done it so often but we'll likely sign him to a long enough term deal that we'll end up eat some of the tail end just to get rid of him when his performance reverts to the mean.


Stu wrote:
This isn't quite this, but it is close to what we used to call the IBM syndrome. That is companies would buy IBM products not because they were the best or the cheapest, but because they were the safe choice.

The thing was IBM had good products. With baseball teams, it is accepting a barely competent player because he is "proven". Bill James, I think, had an article on this. He called it the Tom Brookens Syndrome. Brookens was a 3b for the Tigers when they had those great teams with Whitaker, Parish, Trammel. They won twice I think.


Therefore, the following, based on Stu's observation, is proposed in response to tmar's question: Brookenize -- as in, "I hope the Diamondbacks don't brookenize Eric Byrnes."
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TAP
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Bill James, I think, had an article on this. He called it the Tom Brookens Syndrome. Brookens was a 3b for the Tigers when they had those great teams with Whitaker, Parish, Trammel. They won twice I think.

James theory was that they continued to run Brookens out at third because he was good guy and they knew what they would get. He was well below average at a position where they could have gotten more offense. Yet they didn't want to take risks.

I couldn't help but think of Dal Maxvill when I read this. Maxvill was a smooth fielder and a good guy, but he hit a paltry .217 with 6 HR's over his 14-year major league career, and hit even worse in the post-season. He appeared in four World Series - three (1964, 1967-68 ) with the Cardinals and one (1974) with the A's, yet all but the 1968 Cardinals won their WS. In the Cardinals' only WS losing appearance, Maxvill went 0-for-22. His overall WS batting record was 7-for-61, a .115 BA. Both of those figures are record lows for a position player.

Even Bob Gibson was a more productive hitter than Maxvill.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We need more than anything an impact hitter. AS WE HAVE SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN, THERE'S NO ONE BIG TIME ON THIS TEAM, AND THERE HASN'T BEEN A BIG TIME PRODUCTION GUY SINCE MATT WILLIAMS 1999. And I wasn't trying to capitalize on purpose. The closest Big time hitter on this teAm is Estrada, but he's a catcher with no power. Now that being said, TracY is due for a major turn around next year, too mAny things were pRobably in his head, who knOws. Anyway, we need a big shoulder guy, and as much as I like Byrnes, I don't think he fits the big shoulders.

We get that big shoulder guy, and the things these kids might Do, in the Chase would equal the great Buck offensive teams.
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stu
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AS WE HAVE SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN, THERE'S NO ONE BIG TIME ON THIS TEAM, AND THERE HASN'T BEEN A BIG TIME PRODUCTION GUY SINCE MATT WILLIAMS 1999.

Luis Gonzalez says "hello"

I know Gonzo is persona non grata here, but his 8 years here were HOF caliber. Offensively, his 1999 season was actually better than William's season IMO. Add in D and my guess is that Williams had the better season.
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David B
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TAP wrote:
In the Cardinals' only WS losing appearance, Maxvill went 0-for-22. His overall WS batting record was 7-for-61, a .115 BA. Both of those figures are record lows for a position player.

Even Bob Gibson was a more productive hitter than Maxvill.


For post season futility, it's hard to surpass Dan Wilson. In 88 post season at bats "Dan the Man" had exactly 8 hits (.091). His OBP was .129 and his slugging pct was even lower (.102, one double).

In the 95 post season he went 2-33, including 0-16 in the ALCS vs. Cleveland. In 97 he was 0-13 against Baltimore in the ALDS. In 2000 he was 1-14 vs the White Sox and Yankees.

In his three ALCS combined, Wilson went 3-40. If you wonder why the Mariners (with various combinations of Griffey, ARod, the Unit, Buhner, Edgar, Jamie Moyer, Ichiro, Boone, etc.) never made it to a World Series, you don't have to look much farther than behind the plate.
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McCray
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dangerfield wrote:
We need more than anything an impact hitter. AS WE HAVE SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN, THERE'S NO ONE BIG TIME ON THIS TEAM, AND THERE HASN'T BEEN A BIG TIME PRODUCTION GUY SINCE MATT WILLIAMS 1999. And I wasn't trying to capitalize on purpose. The closest Big time hitter on this teAm is Estrada, but he's a catcher with no power. Now that being said, TracY is due for a major turn around next year, too mAny things were pRobably in his head, who knOws. Anyway, we need a big shoulder guy, and as much as I like Byrnes, I don't think he fits the big shoulders.

We get that big shoulder guy, and the things these kids might Do, in the Chase would equal the great Buck offensive teams.


i disagree. i think a big bopper is the last thing this team needs to be looking for. look at next season's players:

1b: jackson
2b: hudson
3b: tracy
ss: drew
lf: byrnes
cf: young
rf: quentin
c: snyder

none of these players are easy outs (tracy was this year, but i don't think he'll be again next year), and all of them have a little pop. this is going to be a team where there are a lot of 2 rbi doubles, imo. good eyes at the plate, good power at times.

rather than getting a slugger, just get rid of the easy outs: no more counsell, no more estrada swinging at ball 4, and hope tracy quits k'ing like a madman.
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Hank
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McCray wrote:
Dangerfield wrote:
We need more than anything an impact hitter. AS WE HAVE SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN, THERE'S NO ONE BIG TIME ON THIS TEAM, AND THERE HASN'T BEEN A BIG TIME PRODUCTION GUY SINCE MATT WILLIAMS 1999. And I wasn't trying to capitalize on purpose. The closest Big time hitter on this teAm is Estrada, but he's a catcher with no power. Now that being said, TracY is due for a major turn around next year, too mAny things were pRobably in his head, who knOws. Anyway, we need a big shoulder guy, and as much as I like Byrnes, I don't think he fits the big shoulders.

We get that big shoulder guy, and the things these kids might Do, in the Chase would equal the great Buck offensive teams.


i disagree. i think a big bopper is the last thing this team needs to be looking for. look at next season's players:

1b: jackson
2b: hudson
3b: tracy
ss: drew
lf: byrnes
cf: young
rf: quentin
c: snyder

none of these players are easy outs (tracy was this year, but i don't think he'll be again next year), and all of them have a little pop. this is going to be a team where there are a lot of 2 rbi doubles, imo. good eyes at the plate, good power at times.

rather than getting a slugger, just get rid of the easy outs: no more counsell, no more estrada swinging at ball 4, and hope tracy quits k'ing like a madman.


For me, Byrnes is a gaping hole in that lineup. That is where I would like to see the big bopper go. I think if they go internal and trade route for young pitching, they could spend a buck or two for a bopping left fielder to help stabilize a young lineup. Byrnes is going to suck major next year, I think.

The other glaring issue with the lineup is that Tracy, Drew, Quintin and Young all strikeout a lot, so unless there is marked improvement in that area next year (and I think there will be), the obp may be low next year, keeping offensive effectiveness down, too.
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