Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:30 am Post subject: Gonzo Targeting San Diego??

From today AZ Central article

TAP · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:42 am Post subject:

Anaheim would be a much better fit. Stay close to home to DH for an owner that likes him. His ego might have a problem with the DH part, though.
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That's the true harbinger of spring, not crocuses or swallows returning to Capistrano, but the sound of a bat on a ball.
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:04 am Post subject:

hahaha

go from one of the best hitting parks to one of the worst.............

so his HR totals will sink from 15.....to the dreaded SINGLE NUMBER???

oh boy LOL

moviegeekjn · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:17 am Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:21 am Post subject:

He's just not going to get the offers he thinks he will. On the surface, it seems there will be numerous offers, but what GM is going after a LF with a .270 avg and few HR's? Gonzo can Moneyball himself into a better representation, but he is neither going to push a team over the top nor put more asses in the seats. Also, a GM could find somebody to do what Gonzo does that is 10-15 yrs younger.
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Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

Catharsis · Journeyman Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 338

Hey, I grew up a Padres fan. As a Gonzo fan I love the idea.

But if I were Gonzo I would hate it.

The fans would go crazy watching Giles in RF and Gonzo in LF. It doesn't seem right with Mike Cameron patroling CF...although he's probably the best person to have wedged between those two defensive elites.

dirtygary · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:11 am Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:19 am Post subject:

On a one year deal for a half million or a million, like frank thomas, he would be a bargain.

On a multi year deal , say 2 years 7 million or something like that, which is what I think he will end up getting, he will be overpaid.

Dylan, regarding your projection in the other thread, I know that the numbers bear out, and can't argue the methodology. However, intuitively, I feel that too much of Gonzo's production this year occurred in one hot month, (July) and he clearly was unable to sustain it.

I think his decline will be much sharper than what the forecast numbers turn out. But I can't back that up with data, it's just a feeling, from watching him play all year.

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

Well, I don't know if that's quite Moneyball, which is probably why I was confused. I can tell you, there is little to no Moneyball in Luis Gonzalez. There isn't really much sabermetric value. He's relying on actual production and if that doesn't hold up for him, well then...

Shoe, Gonzo actually performed over the project OPS I have for him next year in three months. One of them being super duper. I stand by the numbers with Gonzo more than anyone else. His decline from 2003 has been spot on. So as long as he stays healthy.

shoewizard · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:52 am Post subject:

Is there any ballpark adjustment, for the time being to a neutral environment?

Unless he goes to Colorado or Texas, it's virtually assured he will be in a less hitter friendly, and especially doubles friendly environment. If he goes to San Diego...well you and I are gonna be making a gentlemens bet on that projection Cool

David B · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:53 am Post subject:

This makes sense. The Padres are always going after washed up veterans (Vinny Castilla, Boomer Wells, Eric Young, Mike Piazza).

DesertKnight · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:05 am Post subject:

Catharsis · Journeyman Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 338

shoewizard · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:47 am Post subject:

Catharsis · Journeyman Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 338

Robert S. · Everyday Player Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 530

Gonzo's OBP is going to take a dive next year without all of the IBB and UIBB he's received in AZ. Also, I think after what happened to Finley, there isn't any chance of him getting a multi-year deal.

He'll be DFA'd next year, too. Mark my words.

Robert S. · Everyday Player Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 530

Let me add that I think that even if Gonzo's bat holds up that there isn't going to be much tolerance for his baserunning and approach in left field. I have very serious doubts that his bat will hold up, though. It does not seem to be the case that he's been driving the ball very well this year, particularly in terms of how the ball jumps off his bat. He's not spraying line drives like Drew - he's hitting fliners. This may just be me, but I swear that his home runs to the pool always look like routine flyballs to me until they land.

moviegeekjn · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:38 am Post subject:

McCray · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:42 am Post subject:

i could see the cards taking him on as a bench guy, 4th OFer. i could see the pads doing it, because they love old people. i can sorta see SF, just because i'm so used to the aarp jokes, but realistically, i think this is the year SF tries to go younger.

would be play 1b?
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moviegeekjn · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:46 am Post subject:

TLR generally prefers versatile bench guys... ones that can play multiple positions. I don't see him going for Gonzo.

DesertKnight · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:01 pm Post subject:

SF could be a possibility, though--especially if they decide to keep Bonds for another year to break the record. I know Bonds and Gonzo are both LFers, but if SF doesn't re-sign Alou, they could get Gonzo at a discount and stick him in right, or just platoon him with the ever-injured Bonds.

I'm not saying that Gonzo-to-SF is likely, but it does seem likely that Barry will be back in SF for one more year, and Sabean will put off the major rebuilding until 2008. This is made more likely by the fact that SF has the All-Star Game in '07.

Stuart · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:06 pm Post subject:

Im sure the pitchers would LOVE an outfield corner defense of Gonzo and Bonds Shocked

moviegeekjn · Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:10 pm Post subject:

Counsell · MLB Rookie Joined: 28 Aug 2006 Posts: 220

Gonzo in RF?

Why not just put him at SS? Or let him pitch?

Maybe Joe Gargiola Sr. can make a comeback, too.