Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard

I am looking at his
Player page from the Hardball Times

I would like to figure out what to expect from him next year. I am looking at what things will be like with him playing 2/3 of the time next year, and of course assuming Estrada is gone. Dylan, if you clock in here, could you please give us your projection for Snyder next year, based on say 400 PA?

Some things I notice about Snyder this year.

1.) Walk Rate: It has been fairly constant in the majors. His BB/PA the past 3 seasons is as follows:

2004-.118
2005-.107
2006-.114

FYI, his minor league walk rate was .108 So this has been a pretty consistent area for him.

2.) K rate

2004-.227
2005-.233
2006-.184

That is pretty significant improvement in his K rate this year. The shortening of his swing, and swinging for more contact clearly achieved it's purpose. He put more balls into play this year then ever before.

His minor league K rate was .158 So after making an adjustment, going from .158 in the minors to .184 in the majors seems reasonable.

3.) Balls in play Data:
In addition to the high K rate in 2005, he also had a high Popup rate (18.8%) which must have contributed a good deal to his low BABIP last year (.258)

This year his popup rates are way down, his LD% and HR/F % are closer to his rookie year of 2004

HOWEVER, this year he has been very lucky so far with a .345 BABIP

Chris Snyder of course is not really a .296/.375 OBP guy, at least not yet.

For 2007, if he had 400 Plate appearance, I would expect him to have a similar walk rate to his .11 career average, or about 44 walks. Throw in some HBP and sac hits, and round off and figure he gets about 350 at bats

In 350 at bats, I would peg him for about a .250-.260 BA and a .340/.350 OBP. But, and this is just a gut feeling, and no real hard data to support it, I think his power will increase. This year he has homered about once every 31 AB. I can see him improving that rate to about 25 AB/HR and hitting around 14-15 homers next year.

So my projection range for Snyder next year would be about as follows:

.250/.340/.430 .770 OPS
.260/.350/.450 .800 OPS

I'd be pretty disappointed by anything under a .750 OPS from him next year, and mildly disappoitned if he is in the .750-.770 range.

Anything over .800 I would be EXTREMELY happy with, (AND surprised)

matt · Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:15 pm Post subject:

Nice analysis. I'm with you on everything except the BA part of it. You're right that he's not a .300 hitter but I think he's better than a .260 hitter (your upper end). I think he'll be somewhere in the .270-.280 range. If I keep the same BB, HBP, etc. and ISOP, that ends up at:

.270/.369/.460/.829
.280/.378/.470/.848

Damn, that seems like a huge difference but in reality it is only an extra 4-7 singles compared to your upper level. Maybe that is too high though. The ISOP we are using is .190, that is a big jump from where he is now (.163). Using 2006 stats, an .848 OPS would make him the 5th best catcher with more than 300 ABs. Even lowering it to .800 would still keep him at 8th. Either way, this means that he shoul be a damn great offensive catcher.

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 8:27 pm Post subject:

Matt, his BABIP of .345 is REALLY high.

He is 41-119 for BIP

If he was a league average of about .300 BABIP, he would have about 5 less hits.

In his small sample size, 5 less hits makes him a .264 hitter this year, with normal luck on his BABIP

My projection is slightly lower than that, taking into account more at bats, and perhaps a bit more wear and tear next year.

His walk and K rates have stabilized, so I don't see a quantum leap for Chris next year...but I certainly hope your more optimistic projections are correct Very Happy

matt · Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:53 pm Post subject:

Either way he's a very good to great catcher. I know I shouldn't be so surprised about it but it just blows me away that an extra hit every couple of weeks can make such a huge change in the stats.

shoewizard · Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 9:58 pm Post subject:

yeah......"one bloop every two week.........."

I got into a debate with a few people on the MLB and ESPN boards about Snyder, and I predicted he would probably make an all star game or two within a few years.

Can you imagine if both these catchers turn out to be that good? What if Montero is just as good or better? I still have not seen him catch up here yet, I happened to miss BOTH games he has appeared in during the two weeks he's been here. Evil or Very Mad

dirtygary · Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 10:05 pm Post subject:

"That means just one more wounded quail, one more ground ball with eyes, and you're in the show..."
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TAP · Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:06 am Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:17 pm Post subject:

Montero will eventually be the man, but Snyder is a better option for next year. I kinda think we'd be better off signing a journeymen C to be the backup, and prolong Montero's promotion another year - might be more beneficial in the long-run.

Otherwise, to think that Snyder will hit between .265 and .275, with 15-20HR's, and an OBP of about .360 is reasonable.

Especially if he's not in the 8-hole all year.
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McCray · Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:20 pm Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:42 pm Post subject:

Come up comfortable, and also at a much higher production rate for his frst 3 years than if he spent a year as the backup. I'm typically in favor of that, though. I think a year as a backup, with increasing time as the season goes on is a great way to break in players. Maybe josh thinks the same thing - let Montero be the backup, get spot starts, and get acclimated to the big leagues, and then come out ready to go in '08.
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tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

Don't we still have Brito? He's as good as a journeyman catcher for a 1/3-1/4 time player.

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:56 pm Post subject:

Good call on Brito.
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EvilJuan · Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:07 pm Post subject:

Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

Catcher position for next year (sorry to disappoint you all):

Robert S. · Everyday Player Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 530

I'm violenty opposed to Juan Brito ever seeing another PA in the majors with Arizona. He was no kid back in '04, and was sub-Neifi bad.

McCray · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:11 am Post subject:

wow, that is disappointing, dylan. why so low?
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Dangerfield · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:22 am Post subject:

snyder 165 19 49 8 6 30 21 297 372 455 827
estrada 394 42 119 26 11 69 13 302 329 452 781
ab r h 2b hr rbi bb avg obp slg ops

ttll 559 61 168 34 17 99 34 300 350 453 804

with that kind of production from catcher, shouldn't we be in first?

Some intriguing info, for you hardcore stat-heads, I've seen some new stats, using Jorge Posada specifically, and a fewer others, showing tighter projections based upon total offensive of the Yankees, at different points in time, It was unbelievable. It accounts for almost all variances. I'm not at liberty to divulge yet, but you'll be seeing them soon. phd in mlb stats, next doctorate, coming?
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matt · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:29 am Post subject:

Dangerfield · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 10:56 am Post subject:

re:Snyder

Snyder's now dropping the head of the bat and going the other way, iow, a young hitter changing his approach. His bb/k ratios, snyder gets pitched too, as well, so his .6 w/k ratio, is even better than it appears. You could almost call it a a w/k+, since pitchers aren't avoiding him.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

AZ SnakePit · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:10 am Post subject:

EvilJuan · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:16 am Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:04 pm Post subject:

McCray · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:07 pm Post subject:

how well do projections take into account physical changes in a player? snyder's swing isn't his 2004 swing anymore. the hitters on this board can be more detailed about it, i'm sure, but it's a quicker, easier swing. to me, that makes his 04 numbers slightly more questionable and his 05 numbers slightly more realistic.

but then again, i've gone up against dylan's projections 3 or 4 times now, and lost each and every time. (shakes fist angrily.)
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Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

They don't, just like they don't account for a season filled with nagging injuries like Clark this year (who would've projected under .200 avg?) they don't account for changes in approach that boost a players performance above the expected.

I like Chris Snyder a lot and if he can raise his avg above .250 for the season he will be a very productive player for this team and be very close to shoe's projections he made in the first post (770 OPS).

Just beware of the .300 avg in 165 ABs this year, if he was 36 we'd all be screaming "trade high!!".

matt · Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:51 pm Post subject:

RE: Trade high

Obviously, that is the difference between a player coming into his prime vs. someone who might be at a peak and ready to descend.