| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
 Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:43 am Post subject: You are not as smart as Pythagoras |
 |
|
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/outsmarting-pythagoras/
| Quote: |
There are two main reasons why teams under- or over-perform their Pythagorean records: 1) a bizarre run distribution that is distorted from its typical Weibullian shape and 2) an inordinate number of blowouts or squeakers going for or against you. The first point has been previously reported—under its pseudonym, "consistency"—anecdotally by yours truly, analytically by David Gassko, and very elegantly by Pizza Cutter. The second point may be related to a finding by David that pitcher leveraging has some correlation with Pythagorean differential.
Even that correlation accounts for something like +/- 2.7 wins for 95% of teams, whereas 95% of teams fall within +/- 7.5 wins of their Pythagorean record. That's not to say that we should ignore something like pitcher leveraging. But it does mean that a large chunk of the difference between actual wins and Pythagorean wins is "I-won't-call-it-luck." And none of the cited factors of consistency or bullpen leverage have been shown—although I'm open to seeing evidence to this effect—to be the result of some kind of predictable or skill-based combination of situational hitting, managerial strategy or roster construction.
It's time to stop trying to outsmart ourselves. While we may be able to point to certain factors that have caused a team to have a large Pythagorean differential, it's folly to use those facts as evidence that the trend will continue.
...
And what of Arizona? Since Chris and Ken published their articles on August 20—an insanely small sample in which really anything can happen—Arizona has gone 13-12 with a Pythagorean record over that time of 12.0-13.0. Beware of trying to outsmart Pythagoras—or yourself.
|
In other words, your manager is not as smart as he thinks he is, your bullpen guys aren't as good as they think they are, and your hitters aren't as clutch as Dangerfield thinks they are. In the end, it comes out to good old plain luck, and when luck runs out, the Dbacks better be able to inflict some major ass-kicking at the plate and score a whole bunch of runs, or they are gonna be sitting home in October wondering when the fk shoewizard will stop saying "I told you so..."
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Dangerfield
Veteran Presence
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 1536
Location: worm factory
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| In other words, your manager is not as smart as he thinks he is, your bullpen guys aren't as good as they think they are, and your hitters aren't as clutch as Dangerfield thinks they are. In the end, it comes out to good old plain luck, and when luck runs out, the Dbacks better be able to inflict some major ass-kicking at the plate and score a whole bunch of runs, or they are gonna be sitting home in October wondering when the fk shoewizard will stop saying "I told you so..." |
Well, bullpen is that good. Hitters haven't been that clutch. Give me a good bullpen, couple of hot starting pitchers, defense, good old fashioned small ball and I'll drill old Pythagoras in the ass with a fastball.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it...and kurkjian is a jinx
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:00 am Post subject: |
|
|
OK, our bullpen is good. Not as good as it was earlier this year, but good. Except when it blows up like last night.
About the rest: our hottest starter right now is Edgar, which sums up the state of the rotation. You want two hot starting pitchers, you can rent that movie with Madonna and Rosie O'Donnell 
Good old fashioned small ball... yeah.
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dylan
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 412
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:10 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
-- Smarter man than Dangerfield 
The defense and solid pitching you got right, though.
_________________
Carrying the weight of Jason Schimdt on my shoulders
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Dylan wrote: |
| Quote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
-- Smarter man than Dangerfield
The defense and solid pitching you got right, though.
|
Yeah, but that smarter man could never drill someone in the ass with a fastball like Dangerfield can.
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
stu
Veteran Presence
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Posts: 1798
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
| levski wrote: |
| Dylan wrote: |
| Quote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
-- Smarter man than Dangerfield
The defense and solid pitching you got right, though.
|
Yeah, but that smarter man could never drill someone in the ass with a fastball like Dangerfield can.
|
Pythagoras has been dead for 2,500 years. How hard can he be to hit?
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dylan
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 412
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:22 am Post subject: |
|
|
| levski wrote: |
| Dylan wrote: |
| Quote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
-- Smarter man than Dangerfield
The defense and solid pitching you got right, though.
|
Yeah, but that smarter man could never drill someone in the ass with a fastball like Dangerfield can.
|
He could yell and kick dirt on him though.
_________________
Carrying the weight of Jason Schimdt on my shoulders
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dangerfield
Veteran Presence
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 1536
Location: worm factory
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:23 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Dylan wrote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
"That's all I need." R. Johnson.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it...and kurkjian is a jinx
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dylan
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 412
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:29 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Dylan wrote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
"That's all I need." R. Johnson.
|
Why is it that every time we're trying to deal with reality, you go and make a wrong turn?
_________________
Carrying the weight of Jason Schimdt on my shoulders
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dangerfield
Veteran Presence
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 1536
Location: worm factory
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:32 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Dylan wrote: |
| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Dylan wrote: |
| "if you play for one run, that's all you get." |
"That's all I need." R. Johnson.
|
Why is it that every time we're trying to deal with reality, you go and make a wrong turn?
|
This is reality. Or should it be a question? This is reality? 
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it...and kurkjian is a jinx
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Robert S.
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2909
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
I'll quote myself from last night's Gameday thread:
| Quote: |
| We'll see how smart Melvin is next year when he doesn't have a bullpen as good as it was this season. We'll see how smart he is when the team hits half as many PH homers. We'll see how smart he is when they don't win so many one-run games. |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:19 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Robert S. wrote: |
I'll quote myself from last night's Gameday thread:
| Quote: |
| We'll see how smart Melvin is next year when he doesn't have a bullpen as good as it was this season. We'll see how smart he is when the team hits half as many PH homers. We'll see how smart he is when they don't win so many one-run games. |
|
That'll make him a perfect scapegoat for the 2008 team failure, no? Conveniently, his contact expires after 2008...
The 2008 team outlook is a very interesting topic that I'll spend some time writing about this coming weekend. Stay tuned.
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Face of the Franchise
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 8816
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| The 2008 team outlook is a very interesting topic that I'll spend some time writing about this coming weekend. Stay tuned. |
Summary:
If all the young hitters who sucked this year don't make a drastic turnaround, the 2008 team will stink.
The end.
EDIT: Well not exactly the end. I believe that JB and his crew will find a way to put together a pitching staff that will surprise us again. They probably won't get so lucky with the bullpen.....but the staff will probably be better than we expect....it always is. But they are locked in with these young hitters.....if they don't improve, the team is sunk.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
moviegeekjn
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3134
Location: Phoenix
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:54 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Dangerfield wrote: |
This is reality. Or should it be a question? This is reality? |
Dangerfield manufactures another head (or something) scratcher:
_________________
"Let the Valley be lifted up, And every mountain and hill be made low;... And the rugged Rockies terrain submit to the Valley of the Sun."
Isaiah 40:4 (2007 translation)
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:02 am Post subject: |
|
|
More or less... here's the gist
The starting pitching will have Webb (#1), Davis (#4), two #5s (Edgar and Micah) and a whole lotta young and restless, bold and beautiful. Add in a huge question mark in RJ, and you've got tons of room to regress from this year's 114 ERA+
The bullpen will regress. Papa should be the same, ditto for Cruz, but the rest of them need a major step up in strikeouts (especially Lyon and Pena) to repeat. Then you have a lotta question marks in Slaten, Nippert, Medders, Murphy, and the rest of the AAA crowd. I expect the bullpen ERA to be about a run higher next year, if only because of sheer regression to the mean.
And then there are the hitters...
If they suck, the team will blow and Melvin will swallow. It's that simple.
And unfortunately, I do not see many reasons why we should expect huge improvement out of the hitters next year. Here's why
Jackson: will he ever develop more than 15 homer power? He's had two full season to show us something. He's not getting any younger. 100 OPS+ from 1b is bad, no matter how cheap the guy is.
Drew: he has sucked, and it's NOT all bad luck, regardless of what Melvin says. His BABIP isn't terrible, unlike Quentin's or Hairston's. He just does not hit the ball with authority, he cannot handle hard stuff inside or offspeed stuff outside, and he pulls everything... except for the millions of lazy flys to left field. He's got all the talent in the world, but he's been just awful this year. You want to give him a mulligan this year, but he's not getting any younger. He's older than Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.
Reynolds and Young: they've both hit for power but have terrible BB/K rates, Reynolds worse than Young. They need to improve their BB rate and hopefully cut on their K rate, otherwise they'll never be more than .250 ba/.300 obp guys. And in this game, OBP is king
Tracy: unfortunately, he may be done. Until I see him healthy and hitting again, I have no hopes or expectations.
Upton: all the talent in the world, but we can't expect mvp season from him next year. anything above what we got out of RF this year is bonus.
Snyder/Montero: actually, the bright spots here, imho. I'd like to see Montero and Snyder hit for higher average, which they can.
Callaspo: will he get the playing time, and if he does, will he ever hit?
CarGo and Bonifacio: heading for AAA. we'll see them in 2009
Byrnes: what you see is what you get. If we're lucky, we get the same production out of him like we did this year. Just send him to Cambodia on August 1st, as he'll be as good as useless after that.
Hudson: only pigeon shit falls faster and harder than a second baseman in his 30s. his contact year, so maybe he'll be good... but at this point of time, i think az should just let him walk and see if callaspo or bonifacio have what it takes for 2009
in short, the dbacks are a .500 team this year playing over their heads. with the uncertainties in the rotation and expected bullpen regression, they need a) another solid starter--to be acquired via trade for Quentin?; b) a healthy RJ; c) a couple of young relievers to step up; and d) all of AZ's young hitters to step up next year, if they hope to match the w/l record from this year.
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dangerfield
Veteran Presence
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 1536
Location: worm factory
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:06 am Post subject: |
|
|
| moviegeekjn wrote: |
| Dangerfield wrote: |
This is reality. Or should it be a question? This is reality? |
Dangerfield manufactures another head (or something) scratcher:
|
always wondered how they got around the hoof thing as in, you know why a dog licks himself? Paw/hoof...looks like now we know why God gave them Antlers.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it...and kurkjian is a jinx
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dbackfanron
Everyday Player
Joined: 28 Oct 2006
Posts: 671
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:45 am Post subject: |
|
|
I agree with your assessment Lev. The other thing I look at are the other teams in the NL West. The Rockies offense will continue to be strong and I think their pitching will really improve. The Dodgers if they let their young players play and with a strong pitching staff will be very tough in '08. The Padres with Peavy, Young, and Maddox even with a mediocre offense will be tough to beat. If the Giants can assemble a team with even a mediocre offense that pitching staff (starters) will be very tough to beat. At this point (alot can and will change by April '0 I can see the Dbacks finishing last in the NL West if your take comes to fruition. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Face of the Franchise
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 8816
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:54 am Post subject: |
|
|
| The Giants offense was'nt much worse than our offense this year. Their bullpen is what killed them this year, more than anything. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:56 am Post subject: |
|
|
| shoewizard wrote: |
| The Giants offense was'nt much worse than our offense this year. Their bullpen is what killed them this year, more than anything. |
The Giants may very well have the best starting pitching in the NL west next year, with Cain, Lincecum, Zito, Lowry and Correia/Sanchez.
Their offense will suck, trust me.
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Face of the Franchise
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 8816
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| Their offense will suck, trust me. |
Oh, I don't doubt it.
2007 Giants 87
2007 Dbacks 88
You think they bring Barry back again, or is SFO done with him? He has a 172 OPS+...that kinda helps their average.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
AZ SnakePit
Journeyman
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 296
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: You are not as smart as Pythagoras |
|
|
| Quote: |
| And what of Arizona? Since Chris and Ken published their articles on August 20—an insanely small sample in which really anything can happen—Arizona has gone 13-12 with a Pythagorean record over that time of 12.0-13.0. Beware of trying to outsmart Pythagoras—or yourself. |
I find it somewhat ironic they describe the first 125 games of the season as an "insanely small sample" - then, in the same sentence, claim normality has been restored on the basis of only 25...
_________________
Jim McLennan
AZ SnakePit
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Face of the Franchise
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 8816
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: You are not as smart as Pythagoras |
|
|
| AZ SnakePit wrote: |
| Quote: |
| And what of Arizona? Since Chris and Ken published their articles on August 20—an insanely small sample in which really anything can happen—Arizona has gone 13-12 with a Pythagorean record over that time of 12.0-13.0. Beware of trying to outsmart Pythagoras—or yourself. |
I find it somewhat ironic they describe the first 125 games of the season as an "insanely small sample" - then, in the same sentence, claim normality has been restored on the basis of only 25...
|
I thought exactly the same thing.
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:07 pm Post subject: Re: You are not as smart as Pythagoras |
|
|
| shoewizard wrote: |
| AZ SnakePit wrote: |
| Quote: |
| And what of Arizona? Since Chris and Ken published their articles on August 20—an insanely small sample in which really anything can happen—Arizona has gone 13-12 with a Pythagorean record over that time of 12.0-13.0. Beware of trying to outsmart Pythagoras—or yourself. |
I find it somewhat ironic they describe the first 125 games of the season as an "insanely small sample" - then, in the same sentence, claim normality has been restored on the basis of only 25...
|
I thought exactly the same thing.
|
You guys need to learn to read. He says that the games SINCE the article was written on August 20th, the team has played in an insanely small sample of games (25) in which anything can happen.
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shoewizard
Face of the Franchise
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 8816
Location: In front of my computer
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: |
|
|
oops.....
but still...it's the old....."give a small sample size caveat and then make a point based on small sample size approach to prove a point" approach.
I do that too sometimes. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
levski
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 4438
|
| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:14 pm Post subject: |
|
|
true. but the larger point stays... you can fool some teams some time but you can't fool all the teams all the time
_________________
Shoewizard is my Daddy |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
