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stu
Everyday Player
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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 Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:15 am Post subject: Webb's CY chances |
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Bill James and Rob Neyer have a Cy Young predictor. Webb was second going into last night game
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy
This is based on past voting. I think the voters now down play relievers a little bit more than in the past although Gagne won the award. I haven't heard Wagner being mentioned as a candidate.
As someone concluded in anothger thread (that I can't find now), I think it is down to Webb and Carpenter and the voters are going to look at wins. |
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:27 am Post subject: |
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That was me saying it would come down to wins.
Interesting little tidbit I read about Wang of the Yankees. Of his 30 starts, he only has 17 "quality" starts. He of course has 17 wins.
That Neyer, James Cy Young predictor needs updating. I also remember them saying that the only one that mattered was who was in first and the "metric" was not accurate in picking the order of finish, just the winner. |
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 10:54 am Post subject: |
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| I think Webb is screwed. Carpenter's put together a comparable season on a playoff team. |
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moviegeekjn
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Location: Phoenix
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 11:04 am Post subject: |
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| Robert S. wrote: |
| I think Webb is screwed. Carpenter's put together a comparable season on a playoff team. |
Not necessarily. All depends on the final weeks. Carpenter's last outing was bad.
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| I still have visions of the ROY vote from a few years ago. Pitching for a nothing team in Arizona is a pretty big handicap for Webb. |
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baldmaga
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 1:45 pm Post subject: |
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If you didn't take team success into account, which is what the VB stat is one the very right. Webb is heads and shoulders above Carpenter in pitching alone. But in all honesty, I really don't want Webby winning a Cy Young, as it will increase his asking price come FA time in a couple years  |
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McCray
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Location: clawing my eyes out, praying for sleep. booyah.
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 2:18 pm Post subject: |
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| baldmaga wrote: |
| If you didn't take team success into account, which is what the VB stat is one the very right. Webb is heads and shoulders above Carpenter in pitching alone. But in all honesty, I really don't want Webby winning a Cy Young, as it will increase his asking price come FA time in a couple years |
he'll resign with the team if we're in the middle of a dynasty of ws victories. 
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.
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Catharsis
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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Have Wagner pitch 200+ innings and we'll see how his era is looking then. A closer is not the CY young unless they have 50+ SVs.
Come on, Joe Borowski in 6th place? It just isn't a good indicator. |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Lets root for houston tomorrow. |
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matt
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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That metric is shit. Plain and simple. This is the formula it uses:
((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB
VB = A 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division champsionship (pro-rated based on the current standings).
The first thing that needs to be done to fix it is to add a large penalty for blown saves. Second, in all fairness, the equations should be different for starters and relief pitchers. Wins and losses are not the same for them. ERA is a lot more important for a relief pitcher as well. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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It's not a "Metric"....it's a predictor of how the voters will vote...and James and Neyer have said that nothing after 1st place really matters in the least.
I don't know it's history or accuracy in picking past Cy Winners though. |
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Sun Sep 10, 2006 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, it's pretty much the definition of a "junk stat" - even that's a loose definition of "stat". |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 8:48 am Post subject: |
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Well, Carpenter served notice that he is still the reigning Cy Young Award winner, and he is a great pitcher is not giving anything up. He tossed a 6 hit shutout last night, answering Webb's gem with one of his own.
Here is how the two frontrunners match up:
How much they've pitched:
Carpenter 29 starts, 199.7 IP, 6.89 IP per start
Webb 29 starts, 207 IP, 7.14 IP per start
Slight edge to Webb
What they've given up:
Carpenter : 168 hits, 39 walks 1.037 WHIP 19 HR 63 ER
Webb: 194 hits, 47 walks, 1.164 WHIP 15 HR 69 ER
Slight Edge to Carpenter
Adjusted Stats
Carpenter: 3.39 FIP, .739 DER 156 ERA+
Webb: 3.26 FIP, .711 DER, 158 ERA+
Slight Edge to Webb
Intangibles
Carpenter is the defending Cy Young, and voters will probably take the mentality that he would need to be "clearly defeated" to have his award "taken away". He also pitches for a more famous team that is going to make the playoffs. And Cy Young voters won' be looking at "Adjusted Stats" either. So Webb loses one of his "edges"
However Webb has one more win than Carpenter, 15-14, and has 4 more starts, and Carpenter only has three. So Webb has a chance to open up a 2 win lead again, and we all know how much Cy Young voters love wins
so........Push
Of course this is going down to the wire. Webb has a chance to retake the "lead" in this Cy Young race with another good performance on Friday night. But if he falters, Friday night, it will be tough for him. This will be fun to watch play out. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:11 am Post subject: |
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I just went to the ticket market place and got tickets for me and the family for Friday night.
There are some really good deals at this point, and I encourage anyone who can to get out and support Webb in his push for the Cy Young award.
Since Melvin refuses to play a lineup with more than 2 rookies at a time, it's all we have left to root for in 2006 |
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moviegeekjn
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Since Melvin refuses to play a lineup with more than 2 rookies at a time, it's all we have left to root for in 2006 |
That is sooo deflating night after night when seeing the lineup posted. Even though we lost the first game of the infamous doubleheader at D.C., the coolest part was seeing 4 rookies in the starting lineup: Young, Jackson, Quentin, and Drew. (They accounted for ALL 6 of the runs scored that game with Young driving in 5 and Carlos smashing a LONG homer in the upper deck)
Don't think we've seen that many rookies starting since then, however. Not sure why Melvin broke his p.v. tradition that time either--perhaps because the game wasn't being televised back to Arizona.
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TAP
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 10:53 am Post subject: |
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| moviegeekjn wrote: |
| shoewizard wrote: |
| Since Melvin refuses to play a lineup with more than 2 rookies at a time, it's all we have left to root for in 2006 |
That is sooo deflating night after night when seeing the lineup posted. Even though we lost the first game of the infamous doubleheader at D.C., the coolest part was seeing 4 rookies in the starting lineup: Young, Jackson, Quentin, and Drew. (They accounted for ALL 6 of the runs scored that game with Young driving in 5 and Carlos smashing a LONG homer in the upper deck)
Don't think we've seen that many rookies starting since then, however. Not sure why Melvin broke his p.v. tradition that time either--perhaps because the game wasn't being televised back to Arizona.
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Even though the rookies are the only players that performed well and gave us a chance to win that game, the fact that we lost the game in which the rookies started in some skewed Melvinistic way of thinking proves that playing too many rookies causes losses.
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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How many times has Melbyrnes put the optimal team on the field this season? Pick your definition . . .
Win now: I'd put money down that it's less than five all season.
Invest in future: Ditto.
Placate fanbase that deserted team before season started: 120+ |
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matt
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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| It's funny that as much as we complain that Gonzo never gets sat, Byrnes has probably played more than Gonzo since the ASB and has done a lot worse. |
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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I know I've been on Byrnes more than just about anybody this season, but what else am I supposed to think at this point? Why should I expect him to change course next season? There's always going to be excuses to take the path of least resistance, and the team's going to be better next year, which will add more pressure. Even if we grant him a get-out-of-jail-free card on Gonzo, it still doesn't help much.
His job's going to be safe for some time because he's going to be able to pull a Ricciardi here: win no fewer games than the guy before him for less money. He's going to be a financial asset to the organization - it may not be in his best interest to do much of anything. It may not be worth it, in terms of profit maximization, to the organization to spend any serious amount of money to augment their core.
Byrnes has been slow to respond to almost everything this season. |
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Catharsis
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| Posted: Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:50 pm Post subject: |
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I used this formula to compare Willis and Webb's rookie years. I've decided I don't like the formula even more. Wins matters too much.
2003
Willis: 116.09
Webb: 100.7
If you want to check my math:
Willis (89.26-59)+11.83+2+0+(84-12)+0= 30.26+11.83+2+72=116.09
Webb (100.37-57)+14.33+1+0+(60-18)+0= 43.37+14.33+1+42=100.7
The wins times 6 minus losses time two hurt Webb. He owned every other category against Webb outside of Shutouts. But if I recall, one of those Willis shutouts was in six innings. I hate the mentality that pitchers will win if they are really that good. Almost four seasons later and Webb is still better. |
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JoshByrnesWhenIPee
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Joined: 12 Aug 2006
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Location: Portland, OR
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| Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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Rob Neyer's take:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2586019
| Quote: |
While trying to figure out who's going to win the Cy Young Award in the National League, I consulted Bill James' Cy Young Predictor, but unfortunately, it doesn't seem to work well for relief pitchers.
It once did -- or would have, if Bill had invented it earlier than he did -- and it might again someday. But right now, it doesn't. I'm not sure whether it's because ace relievers have changed or because the voters' minds have changed. In 2004, Mariano Rivera and Jason Isringhausen finished second in their leagues in the Cy Young Predictor; in our world, they finished third (Rivera) and not at all (Isringhausen). In 2005, Rivera and Joe Nathan finished first and third in the American League Cy Predictor; in our world, they finished second (Rivera) and not at all (Nathan).
What I think is that as 40-save seasons and sub-2.00 ERAs have become somewhat commonplace, the voters sort of stopped paying attention. Which is fine by me. When Sparky Lyle won the Cy Young Award in 1977, he threw 137 innings. When Bruce Sutter won two years later, he threw 101 innings. When Steve Bedrosian and Mark Davis won in 1987 and '89, they threw roughly 90 innings.
And this season? Trevor Hoffman's going to finish with 60 innings, Billy Wagner perhaps a dozen more. Neither will approach even 80 innings. Unless a reliever's nearly perfect -- as Eric Gagne was a few years ago -- he simply won't pitch enough innings to be the most valuable pitcher in his league. I think the voters get that, and neither Hoffman nor Wagner has been nearly perfect (Hoffman has blown five saves, Wagner six). If the Padres get into the playoffs and if Hoffman's perfect down the stretch and if Hoffman breaks Lee Smith's career saves record -- he's five saves away -- he might draw some significant support from the voters. But right now, he's still a decided underdog.
With all that in mind, though, we also should remember that voters like, more than anything else, shiny objects. Specifically, they like 20 wins. Like them a lot. And this season, nobody in the National League is going to get 20 wins. At best, Brandon Webb's going to win 19 games, but that seems unlikely considering he'd have to win each of his four remaining starts, and he hasn't won four straight starts since early May. Chris Carpenter, generally considered Webb's No. 1 Cy rival, is even farther from 20; he's 14-6, and his rotation slot will come up only three more times.
Here are the last five starters to win the Cy Young despite finishing with fewer than 20 wins, and I'll include, for the sake of comparison, Webb's and Carpenter's projected 2006 stats ...
W-L ERA K's
Clemens 2004 18-4 2.98 218
Johnson 2000 19-7 2.64 347
Martinez 2000 18-6 1.74 284
Martinez 1997 17-8 1.90 305
Clemens 1991 18-10 2.62 241
Webb 2006 16-7 3.00 167
Carpenter 2006 16-7 2.84 186
As you can see, all the winners had something extra: a super-low ERA, a fantastic winning percentage, a huge number of strikeouts. Something. And neither Webb nor Carpenter has, so far at least, anything all that shiny for the voters. Have you ever seen a baseball writer get excited about a 16-7 record? I haven't. Have you ever seen a baseball writer get excited about 186 strikeouts? I haven't.
But somebody has to win. So it says here that Webb and Carpenter are now engaged in a two-man, two-week death match, only one left standing at season's end. The number 18 isn't particularly shiny. This year, though, it should be shiny enough. |
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Hock
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| Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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As you know...I'm not a stat guy...but here's my opinion anyway.
First...I am the first to admit that Webb pitched much better this season then I predicted. I will admit I was wrong, and he is a legitimate #1 pitcher.
Second...he won't win the Cy Young. Two reasons...not enough wins, and Diamondbacks reputation across the NL isn't strong enough.
Skills wise I think he should be #1 or #2...but that's not the making of a Cy Young winner in the real world. |
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matt
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| Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 3:57 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't have a problem with Carpenter winning it over Webb. Carpenter has been better (no taking park into account) |
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moviegeekjn
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| Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Basic horse race--primarily between Webb and Carpenter, whoever finishes stronest... but if both falter a bit, then it could go to a closer. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Thu Sep 14, 2006 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| I don't have a problem with Carpenter winning it over Webb. Carpenter has been better (no taking park into account) |
But how can you NOT take park into account?
They are so close......
They both have 4 CG and 3 Shutouts.
Could they be any more evenly matched?
Webb has 4 starts, Carp has 3.
We'll just have to see how it plays out.
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