Personally, I think the Dbacks should decline Gonzo's option AND trade Eric Byrnes for pitching. There will be plenty of interest in Byrnes due to his $4m tag next year, but he will hit free agency after 2007, and I absolutely think his value is at his highest right now. Sell high on him.
The Dbacks need to free up LF for Hairston, period. He hasn't received nearly as much acclaim as Drew, Quentin or Young this year, but he has been the best hitter in Tucson. He is out of options and he'll give you production comparable to Byrnes's output, for a mere fraction of the cost. He would be a nice bridge in the OF until Upton or C. Gonzalez are ready. [Damn, when those two show up, we'll have a really full house.]
An outfield of Quentin, Young and Hairston would be young, athletic, and good. DaVanon could play all three positions, and play them well, and should get plenty of at bats around the outfield.
Callaspo has seen some games in the OF, notably CF, recently, and the Dbacks should strongly consider making him the Chone Figgins of the team--give him at bats at 3b, 2b, ss, cf, anywhere he's need. The kid needs to play, and needs to get 400+ at bats next year. Give him Counsell's spot on the roster and set him free, and think of him as the 2bman of the future.
Barden should take Easley's spot, and he should also be asked to take some grounders at 3b, 2b and potentially lf. There is absolutely no reason to have someone like Easley back next year when Barden can do a pretty good job as the futility infielder in his place.
Chris Carter should be on the team instead of Tony Clark. I know Tony is a nice guy, great in the clubhouse, etc, but the reality is, his knees have walked with dinosaurs--and even Carl Everett doesn't believe in them. Let him go, Byrnes, let him go. Enough is enough.
And if we've gotten this far, might as well trade Estrada while his value is at his highest. Like Byrnes, he's having a career year, and like Byrnes, he is about to cost more money than the Dbacks should spend given the depth at the respective positions. Snyder+Montero are the future at C, might as well get them the at bats they need in 07.
Finally, maybe we should give Hammock another shot at making the team. If he's healthy and can hit, he can play anywhere, and be the emergency catcher. His versatility would make him much more useful than Clark or Easley.
So, my lineup, in case you missed it
C: Snyder
1B: Jackson
2B: Hudson
SS: Drew
3B: Tracy
LF: Hairston
CF: Young
RF: Quentin
What is there NOT to like about it?! Granted, 2007 could have its ups and downs, but you have to give these kids time to play together and develop. With enough luck, this lineup will terrorize the NL west for years to come.
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
The idea is to trade Byrnes and Estrada for pitching.
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
Gonzalez was honored in a pregame ceremony and went 3-for-3 with a pair of singles, a double and three runs scored. The double was the 543rd of his career, tying him with Tony Gwynn for 20th all-time. Gonzalez also set a new club record with 48 doubles on the season, breaking his previous record.
Gonzo undoubtedly has been the best offensive player in AZ's history, and his records (57 homers, 48+ doubles, total bases per season, etc) may be the team's records for quite some time, maybe a really long time. At his peak in AZ, he was a superstar. I think his number, as well as RJ's number, should be retired by the team one day.
And I really like Gonzo. It's just time to let him go...
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
Levski IS right. But will this organization have enough balls to go with such a "rookie" OF? I'd be VERY happy if they adopt Levski's plan but it's hard to see them doing that, given their past history.
I like this plan. You probably need 12 pitchers so you need to drop one of those guys if one inning Melvin is staying. Everyone is OIOGY for him.
It leaves a lot of money for pitching. Hairston is out of options so he needs to be kept of traded. My guess is that Hairston wouldn't bring much. He has proven he can hit so why not try him in lf on a regular basis? You should be able to pick up a lf if Hairston stinks.
Clark's no trade clause is up after this year. You might want to pimp Carter on service time and keep him in the minors for 30 days. See if Clark looks good in ST so you can get something for him. He is cheap (about 1M IIRC).
Same with Barden. Let him start in AAA. Keep Hammock if you want. He is never going to be than a utility player. Let's also see how Reynolds looks in the fall league.
If you consider that the team has to make a publicity splash in the offseason, maybe not the smartest thing but it must happen, we can reserve that extra cash for a pitching publicity splash.
If we trade Byrnes & Estrada for pitching, and have money we could really do some damage. I just hope it is multi-year damage.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3245
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 8:36 am Post subject:
Excellent summary of what they SHOULD do. Just one minor tweak. They are unlikley to carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers on the 25 man active roster. It will almost certainly be 13-12, unless they manage to get another "innings eater" or two to go along with Webb and Livan(presumeably coming in the proposed trades of Byrnes and Estrada) Maybe then they would go 14-11.
If you could only start off with 13 position players, and taking options into consideration , who would you keep in Tucson to start the season from your bench? Barden? Carter? Hammock? Not sure of Hammock's option status. Can they keep him in Tucson to bring up if there is an injury?
As far as trades.....I feel pretty strongly that a trade of Estrada is inescapable. It also seems very unlikely they will bring Gonzo back in any sort of "platoon" role. He just won't do it. BUT, under these circumstances, I just don't see them trading Byrnes, even though Levski is 100% correct about the timing and selling high. I believe their other concerns about experience, as well as "fan favorites" WILL indeed hold sway here.
It will also be interesting to see if they go after a "true power bat". If they do try to sign a big homerun hitter, that move would have ownerships fingerprints all over it, and signal that they are not completely out of the roster construction business. If Byrnes convinces them that the perceived lack of homerun power will be solved simply by allowing the young guys to play every day and develop their power, that would be a clear cut indicator that Byrnes is free of all encumberances save limited payroll budget.
"Levski's Team" would probably have 3 or 4 20 homer guys on it, and double digit homers from every spot in the lineup, and good power off the bench too. Homerun power will be less of a problem next year through simple progression.
Oden had mentioned that Aramis Ramirez has an out clause in his contract, and he can exercise that clause to become a free agent after this season. This is true....but he is guaranteed 21.5 million the next two years, and with 270 games played in 07-08, he would also get 09 guaranteed at 11 million. So Ramirez would cost 12 or 13 a year over a minimum of 3-4 years to sign if he DID exercise his option, unless he just wants to take the same money to get out of Wrigleyville.
Just thought I would throw him in there as a possible power bat and upgrade at 3b over Tracy, who would then of course be traded for pitching. I don't think I would actually do that, but it was worth mentioning.
Finally, I have a question of you Lev.
Who should they be going after in the trades of Estrada and Byrnes? They will have so much payroll budget freed up, and they are not going to be signing any of the "top" i.e. uber expensive free agents, so how are they going to spend the money? Are they going to "bank it" and drop payroll down to 50 million and use the savings next year? Are they going to trade for pitchers already under multi year contracts that won't exactly be cheap, in todays market terms. (i.e. another Livan type deal).
I would love to start the process of going over the major league rosters and looking at contracts, and start identifying ACTUAL TRADE TARGETS. I am sure you have a few in mind....so start us off.
I think Estrada's gone no matter what, but I don't think we'll trade Byrnes just to trade him. I'm hoping Estrada brings a young arm that's been in the majors but has very little service time--a Rich Hill/Adam Wainwright type, maybe even a more experienced middle of the rotation guy like Noah Lowry--maybe that's a bit optimistic, but I look at the good young arms Chicago gave away to Florida for Juan Pierre, and I'd think Estrada would have greater value. And we have enough good young arms in the minors, so trading for guys who haven't proven anything in the majors and might completely flame out (like Dustin McGowan (I know Toronto needs a catcher)) doesn't do much for me.
And I think if we can get a similar bounty for Byrnes, we should move him, but if not, I like him on the roster much more than I like Hammock on it. No sense dumping an asset for nothing. If we don't like the return, try to sign Byrnes to a three year deal for $4-5 million per, and he'll be a tradeable asset for longer than just this offseason.
I also think Carter will be in Tucson simply for AB's. I don't like the idea of either him or CJ getting less than 400 AB's next year, and at least one definitely will next year if they platoon.
And I wouldn't be surprised if management has something similar to this roster already on paper, and knows we'll be competitive next year but not really contend, which I don't mind. Instead of bringing in a big money FA like Schmidt, I like the idea of finishing the remaking of the 25 man roster with young guys this offseason, and paying down our huge debt if we're profitable next year.
Thinking about it, unless Barden and Carter are going to play regularly, keep them in the minors until July 1 (or whenever the super two time passes). You want to stagger your good young players so they all don't reach arb at the same time. A bench player isn't going to add that much and regular PT is better for these guys.
My guess is that they will follow the CQ and Young model for these guys.
One other thought is on trading Vargas, unless he's good BP material. I think he's arbitration elligible and shouldn't get too much of a bump <I believe he's at about 1.25MM this year>. He'd probably have some value for a team needing a cheap #5.
Nothing against Vargas but I'd rather see either or both of the EGonz's pitching next year, even if they fail, than watch Vargas give us the same performance <or worse>.
If E., Brynes can repeat this offense next year, he is a very valuable in cf. He was surprisingly (at least to me) good on defense this year. In lf, he is a below average player given his O. Playing in left is not maximizing abilities. A team that needs a cf is a much better fit for for him.
At Primer, the wise guys were saying that Ramirez' defense stinks. If so, a lot of what he brings with the bat is given back on D. Without knowing the numbers, I'd say pass on him.
This Rameriz type analysis is what bothered me about Josh Byrnes answer on defensive numbers. If you can't quantify how many runs a players saves or allows on D, how can you properly evaluate his effect on the team?
I don't like the current D metrics, but I think you need to make some effort so you can compare apples with apples or runs with runs.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3245
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:06 am Post subject:
stu wrote:
If E., Brynes can repeat this offense next year, he is a very valuable in cf. He was surprisingly (at least to me) good on defense this year. In lf, he is a below average player given his O. Playing in left is not maximizing abilities. A team that needs a cf is a much better fit for for him.
At Primer, the wise guys were saying that Ramirez' defense stinks. If so, a lot of what he brings with the bat is given back on D. Without knowing the numbers, I'd say pass on him.
This Rameriz type analysis is what bothered me about Josh Byrnes answer on defensive numbers. If you can't quantify how many runs a players saves or allows on D, how can you properly evaluate his effect on the team?
I don't like the current D metrics, but I think you need to make some effort so you can compare apples with apples or runs with runs.
Excellent point about Byrnes value as a corner vs. CF.
Chris Dial had Ramirez "neutral" and Tracy slightly below average. Chris Dial's work needs work.
Dials rankings and discussion
As far as what Byrnes said about defense, I think he was just saying he does not trust the metrics enough to make decisions based on them, although I am sure he and his team DO look at all of it. They probably just depend on scouting a heck of alot more when it comes to evaluating defense.
I thought the "gargabe in garbage out" comment pretty damning, but maybne he was just placating me.
Even if you are using scouting I think you need to figure a way to equate the defense values to runs or some equivalent so it can be compared to offensive value. I would have liked to follow up with another question.
Thanks for linking Dial's numbers. On CD's numbers, I'd like to see more than one year for the defensive numbers, but how about Byrnes and Finley!!
Well, I think we all have known for sometime that Estrada would be traded. Luckily he had a very good season so his value should be high. Here's hoping that Josh Byrnes pulls off another "AJ to the Giants" type of a trade...
Stu, your point about service time is valid. My "lineup" was ideal -case scenario, and I don't envision that lineup out of spring training. In fact, I don't think Carter will be up right out of ST, for example, but I'd like to see him added to the 40 man roster and called up mid-year. Barden might as well make the team out of spring training; in his case service time doesn't matter much as I don't think he's someone you worry about 6 years from now.
Finally, I think there's an excellent chance that Eric Byrnes stays for next year, but I'd hate to lose Hairston because of him. He'd have trade value next summer too, but you always make better deals in the offseason, imho, and there should be enough interest in Byrnes so that the Dbacks should be able to move him.
Whom to go after? Too hard to tell. It'll depend on the interest in Estrada and Byrnes. But... groundball pitchers?
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
Between 2001-2003 UZR had Rameriz a -17/162 games.
http://www.tangotiger.net/UZR0003.html
I have no idea if he has improved since then, but this proabably where the Primer boys got their idea about his D.
A big problem with defensive numbers is that by the time you have enough to make them meaningful even under their creator's standards, they are so old as to be of lesser value.
Groundball pitchers if you can get them, but I'd rather look at good k/w and k/ip for young pitchers (under 26). I am not as much into hr/ip.
I'd also like them to be tall and able to add some pounds. If they had a bad era last year so much the better since they may be cheaper.
I think a fb pitcher can succeed at Chase, but he needs to be able strike guys out and minimize the walks. Geez, Curt Schilling maybe? Of course, Schilling bounced a lot when he was younger.
If the Giants would give us Jonathan Sanchez and that Linux kid they got in the first round this year for Estrada, I'll personally drive Johnny to the Bay Area. I'll even buy him lunch in Bakersfield.
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3245
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:32 am Post subject:
Quote:
Whom to go after? Too hard to tell. It'll depend on the interest in Estrada and Byrnes. But... groundball pitchers?
Next year the OF defense should be pretty darn good for the entire year, what with the likes of Young and Quentin, and possibly Byrnes in Lf flagging down drives in the gaps and at the walls.
So a flyball pitcher with a low walk rate would probably have a good chance of success. Obviously in this ballpark, you still like to have groundball pitchers, but I don't think you have to be quite as FB pitcher averse as you were in the past.
Barden is better than Green, imo, and he's younger.
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
You always want groundball pitchers if you can get them. Fast outfield can help you much when the pitcher is giving up screaming liners or long balls in the pool...
_________________
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Joe Girardi is ten feet tall,
Old school Hollywood baseball,
Me and Frenchy walk a ton.
Maybe the Giants would like Eric Byrnes. They need a cf. He is not really old enough for them, but he is getting there. He is from the area and a crowd pleaser.
Looking at my old numbers, there's about 15MM to fill out pitching #3-#5 and LF <4 players>. This assumes O-Dog, Vizcaino & Julio stay and Estrada goes.
If we fill out #4-#5 with a combo of the EGonzs, Nippert & Cruz, that would leave about 14MM for LF & #3.
One other option that could bode well for 2008 would be to sign Batista to a 2-year, front loaded deal and then if we aren't in contention by the trade deadline, trade him for some 08 talent. Maybe 2yr/9MM with 5.5MM yr1 and 3.5MM yr2.
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