Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 10:41 am Post subject: Open Letter to Josh Byrnes
Hi Josh, Hope this finds you well. You're probably not in the mood for reading open letters on message boards, seeing how the Dbacks are hitting the fan right about now, in a manner eerily similar to last year's June debacle, but...
Here are a few things that might be worth considering. Now, you are a very smart guy, and you're surrounded by smart people (heck, you've even got some MIT kids who're willing to work for pennies instead of making millions in investment banking or private equity... so, wait, are they really smart?), so you certainly don't need my advice (no one does, really), but please listen.
1. Can Seitzer.
I don't mean "can" as in preserve him in a glass jar, a la Richard Nixon's head on "Futurama". I mean, give him the pink slip. Show him the door. Ask him to get out of Dodge. Tell him to hit the road, Seitz. Whatever words you want to use (maybe even do a quick montage, showing shots of Quentin striking out, Young flying out to RF, Drew popping up), CAN HIM.
Seitzer needs to go. He might be a really nice guy to talk to in the offseason, shoot the crap about the good old days of baseball when men were men and sheep were scared, and he may have thousands of theories on the best ways to fly out to the rightfielder on a fastball inside, but face it, he's FAILING MISERABLY as a hitting coach. FAILING.
Maybe it's the players, and not the coach, but I doubt it. These kids were good enough to hit in AAA, and they were good enough to hit last year (i.e., Jackson, Drew, Quentin). They suck this year. You can blame bad luck or injuries or slow starts or BPro's projections, but the reality is, ALL of AZ's young hitters are struggling. The only two guys who are hitting well are the veterans Hudson and Byrnes, and that's because they are too old to listen to Seitzer's crap. Plus, both of them are hitting as well with Seitzer on board as they were hitting last year without Seitzer. All Seitzer has done is mess up the young kids with his pontification. So CAN HIM.
Get a hitting coach who'll shut up, lob batting practice balls to the young players, and get them to believe in themselves again. Not dissect every swing and tell them to tighten their sphincter muscles. It's B.S. These guys know how to hit. They just need a hitting coach to leave them the hell alone.
2. Trade Hudson for pitching NOW.
Now, Josh, I love O-Dawg. I've been a fan of his for many years, and I've loved watching him play at Yankee Stadium when he was with the Blue Jays. I've been his biggest defender here since the day you acquired him in a trade, and spent plenty of time defending him from the Dogs of War that some posters here were ready to sic on him last year. And O-Dawg has been very good in AZ. Not great, but very good.
You know, however, that Hudson has no future in AZ. He knows it too, we all know it. You also know that you'll be looking to trade him sooner rather than later, and that he'll be on the trade market next offseason. Here's the deal though.
Hudson's value is MUCH higher now than it will be in the offseason. You know it. Furthermore, there are several teams RIGHT now that are very interested in Hudson, and they may be less interested in the offseason. Furthermore, by trading Hudson NOW, you can get help for THIS year. And you cannot get help for this year by trading him in the post-season.
Everybody says you've been calling up your buddy Kenny W to check on the status of his pitching staff. Everybody says he likes Hudson. I say it's a match made in heaven. If he signs Buehrle, he'll put another pitcher on the market. I like Garland, even if the Twins ripped him yesterday. Young, groundball pitcher, under reasonable contract. Am sure you like him too.
The Mets are also on the market. Jose Valentin is crapping out, Easley is, well, Easley (you've done that dance, and you know it's not cha-cha) and you know Omar would love to have O-dawg at Shea. Am sure you can work something out with Omar.
Finally, you know that Hudson's O is a Chase Field creation. You know that his breakout years in AZ are really due to the fact that he's hit really really well in AZ. On the road, he's not nearly as good...
Obviously, there are question marks about Reynolds's D at 2b. He's played it there some in the past, but I think he's athletic enough and has good enough reflexes and strong enough arm to play there. He's good on pop ups, he's got good speed, and his bat will certainly be a bonus there. And even though his D will be a downgrade on Hudson at 2b, do you really think that having a gold glover at 2b is the most important thing for this team right now? Do you?
Plus, you know Hudson's problems on D. He's got good range to his left, but no range to his right, for whatever reason. Maybe it's his feet, or he's just aging slowly, but he CAN'T reach balls up the middle that a gold glove 2bman should. He's still good on pop ups, but as I mentioned, Reynolds isn't too bad himself, and might surprise you at 2b.
Finally, moving Reynolds to 2b allows you to solve the logjam at 1b/3b. I suppose you've shopped Tracy and Jackson and Reynolds around, and you know what they are worth on the trade market. Probably not much right now. Not that they are bad hitters, but every other GM knows they've got you by the balls... you've got the logjam at 1B/3B, not they. And they'll be holding out. And really, what you need to do is HOLD ONTO the young guys like Jackson and Tracy and Reynolds. And trade guys who are approaching free agency, like Hudson.
Again, I know you love Hudson, and so do I, believe me. But as Branch Rickey wrote once, "It's always better to trade a player a year early than a year late". And he should know, he traded Ralph #### Kiner. To paraphrase Rickey's famous words to Kiner, "The Dbacks finished third with Hudson last year, they can finish third without him this year as well". Time to see if Reynolds has a future at 2b in AZ.
4. Don't trade Justin Upton or Carlos Gonzalez.
Am pretty sure that teams will be asking for these two guys all the time. It's a crazy time in baseball where every GM expects a Kazmir type player for a Victor Zambrano type trash. Damn you, Jim Dookiette. Regardless, you should hold onto those two guys. They are super star potential guys, and those don't grow on trees. Even if CarGo is scuffling these days, and can't seem to walk to 1b even on an intentional walk, he's got special talent. And I suppose you won't trade them... but just making sure.
And 5. If you've gotten this far, thanks for reading.
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Shoewizard is my Daddy
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Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 11:10 am Post subject:
very good points buddy this team lacks direction and those are some great ideas to get the kids on this team believing they can win!!!! the problem is nobody knows whether this team is a winner or a loser. you take one or two steps toward making this team a winner the kids shouldn't have a problem picking their heads back up!!!
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Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 11:20 am Post subject:
I find it almost impossible to believe JB would trade Hudson at this juncture. Which probably means a trade is imminent.
One thing that people have to keep in mind....just because many people here are prospect junkies and like to see an all homegrown team, the young players on this team actually like the veterans, and look up to them, and probably don't want to see them go....(except if a guy is being directly blocked by that veteran)
All the talk recently about Byrnes and Hudsons days in AZ being numbered must be bumming some of the young players out.
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"Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first call promising"
All the talk recently about Byrnes and Hudsons days in AZ being numbered must be bumming some of the young players out.
I agree although there really isn't much we can do about those two. Byrnes has done what he needed to do <so far> to hit that FA payday and hopefully he gets it. O-Dog has been the main source of "departure" talk, even though it's been light, so there's not much the management can do about that other than ink him to an illogical deal.
If we are in need of a veteran, why not get one for next year to play one of the OF positions if Hairston doesn't pan out and if need be, extend Clark for another year on the cheap.
BTW great points Levski, I'd choose your opinions over anyone at MIT any day of the week.
Last edited by tmar on Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
I didn't see anything about baseball in his past. If I'm in need of a $100 laptop, he's the man, but when it comes to advice on how to play that sporting-chess match we call baseball, you da man.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 658
Location: The wild blue yonder
Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: Open Letter to Josh Byrnes
levski wrote:
I don't mean "can" as in preserve him in a glass jar, a la Richard Nixon's head on "Futurama". I mean, give him the pink slip. Show him the door. Ask him to get out of Dodge. Tell him to hit the road, Seitz. Whatever words you want to use (maybe even do a quick montage, showing shots of Quentin striking out, Young flying out to RF, Drew popping up), CAN HIM.
Nice post, but this paragraph should go in the DBBP HOF. I'm still laughing!
I agree with most of your opinions.
You have articulated them very well.
However, i have some disagreements too.
Quote:
Hudson's value is MUCH higher now than it will be in the off-season
I agree D-backs should trade Hudson for pitching.
I am not sure if D-backs need to trade him before July 31st.
Because, the pool of available pithcers will be less.
Play-off bound teams will be reluctant to give up Pitching.
I have expressed this in one of the other threads too.
Quote:
And even though his D will be a downgrade on Hudson at 2b, do you really think that having a gold glover at 2b is the most important thing for this team right now? Do you?
I believe at 2nd base, defense is more important for D-backs.
With groundball pitcher like Webb, he can use as much defense as he can get. With Livan, he seems to be content to walk hitters than attack them in the stike zone. He can use defense too.
I find it almost impossible to believe JB would trade Hudson at this juncture. Which probably means a trade is imminent.
One thing that people have to keep in mind....just because many people here are prospect junkies and like to see an all homegrown team, the young players on this team actually like the veterans, and look up to them, and probably don't want to see them go....(except if a guy is being directly blocked by that veteran)
All the talk recently about Byrnes and Hudsons days in AZ being numbered must be bumming some of the young players out.
We absolutely have room for 2 or 3 veteran guys in the everyday lineup, that's a frickin dream when you're looking for ways to integrate veteran leadership.
Given what we know about our corner IF, we should use the 3 guys interchangeably. Neither has shown reason to be everyday, but they've each given reason to be out there. So platoon it. Maximize opportunities. Ditto for the OF.
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Everybody is my daddy. After further discussion with the old buddies, we don't have Jordan In Spikes (trademarked), we have Bo. (goosebumps)
Given what we know about our corner IF, we should use the 3 guys interchangeably. Neither has shown reason to be everyday, but they've each given reason to be out there. So platoon it. Maximize opportunities. Ditto for the OF.
How so? Tracy, Reynolds, and CJ have OPS+ of 110, 119, and 98. The rest of the young ones are under 80. I said it in another thread that it is Reynolds that needs to move to the OF, at least temporarily. They are the only young guys producing and they are getting jerked around the most.
Given what we know about our corner IF, we should use the 3 guys interchangeably. Neither has shown reason to be everyday, but they've each given reason to be out there. So platoon it. Maximize opportunities. Ditto for the OF.
How so? Tracy, Reynolds, and CJ have OPS+ of 110, 119, and 98. The rest of the young ones are under 80. I said it in another thread that it is Reynolds that needs to move to the OF, at least temporarily. They are the only young guys producing and they are getting jerked around the most.
Well I think Reynolds is gonna drop down from that 119. Tracy will keep his there, and CJ will probably improve his OPS+ slightly.
Reynolds & CJ vs Lefties is 1 simple way.
The OF would be allright, except he'd be filling Hairston's role. Reynolds as Utility IF is the optimal solution. Give O and SD a break occasionally. Reynolds can handle those positions occasionally. I thought he was taking Callaspo's spot, anyways.
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Everybody is my daddy. After further discussion with the old buddies, we don't have Jordan In Spikes (trademarked), we have Bo. (goosebumps)
levski, why are you convinced that Hudson's trade value is highest right now as compared to the end of the season? It's not like a team like the White Sox could use him for their playoff hunt. Meanwhile, we're a contender this year, and Hudson is a huge part of that.
Shoewizard and I were talking about Hudson's trade value, when it's highest: now or in the offseason.
First, let's do an exercise, and see which teams will need a 2bman in 08
AL: 2Bman for 08
Yankees, Cano
Red Sox, Pedroia
Orioles, Roberts
Blue Jays, Hill
Rays, Upton or Imamura
Twins... will need a 2bman, Castillo a free agent
Indians, Barfield
Tigers, Polanco
White Sox... will need a 2bman, Iguchi a free agent
Royals... may need a 2bman, have German/Cortez
A's, Ellis
Mariners, Lopez
Angels, Kendrick
Rangers, Kinsler
NL, 2bman for 08
Mets, may need 2bman, have Valentin/Easley/Gotay
Phillies, Utley
Braves, Johnson
Nationals, Lopez (may need 2bman if Lopez at SS)
Marlins, Uggla
Brewers, Weeks
Cubs, DeRosa/Fontenot/Theriot/E.Patterson
Astros, Burke/Biggio
Cards, Kennedy
Pirates, Sanchez
Reds, Phillips
Rockies, Matsui, etc
Giants, Durham
Padres, Giles (team option on Giles)
Dodgers, Kent (team option on Giles)
Now, if you look at this, what teams would need a 2bman?
Twins, White Sox, Royals
Mets, Nationals
Not a whole lotta teams out there, are there? Furthermore, you can throw out the Twins, Royals and Nationals, for different reasons: the Twins won't trade for Hudson's $6M salary, and the Royals/Nationals don't need him.
So you're left with the White Sox and Mets. The same teams that might be interested right now.
Now, let's look at the available free agents after this year at 2b:
If you look at 2bmen, and you assume that MGiles and JKent stay, you have
Belliard
Biggio (he'll retire, most likely)
Luis Castillo
Easley
Grudz (player option, he'll probably pick it up)
Hairston, Jr
Iguchi
Loretta
Woodward
Castillo is the top free agent, and he'll go to either the Mets or White Sox. I won't be shocked if Kenny W gets him, and I know Omar loves him. So there goes one of the two teams you want to trade Hudson to. The other team will have plenty of cheaper options on the free agent market, as guys like Belliard, Hairston Jr, Iguchi, Loretta will all sign for pennies.
So do you think the loser of the Castillo sweepstakes will overpay in a trade for Hudson AND pay him $6+ m next year in arbitration? Highly unlikely. In fact, I won't be shocked if there's NO market whatsoever for Hudson in the offseason, the same way there was no market for Marcus Giles last year, and the Braves had to non-tender him.
So basically the Dbacks may very well have to keep Hudson for 08, pay him $6m or more, and then lose him as a free agent, collecting 2 draft picks in 09 (!). Or they can explore a trade now.
Why would things be different now? For one, the Dbacks won't have the competition of free agents, especially Castillo. Two, Kenny W appears gung ho ready to make a trade, and he might decide that Hudson is whom he wants. Three, the Mets really need someone to replace Valentin and Easley at 2b; both are slumping offensively and defensively. And the Mets are in a tight race. Hudson would be a big upgrade for them.
Now, I'm most likely wasting my time here as a) there may not be an actual market for Hudson right now; and b) JB may not want to trade him. Which is fine with me. I think he'll be wrong to keep Hudson, personally.
As I said, the Dbacks can finish third in the NL west without Hudson. I'm all for being optimistic right now, but I just don't see the turnaround coming, not with the Padres AND Dodgers ahead of us in the standings...
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Shoewizard is my Daddy
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Posted: Sat Jul 07, 2007 6:02 pm Post subject:
Nice to see you flesh out our earlier conversation, and I have to agree....this makes a lot more sense presented this way.
Oh to be a fly on the wall and bug in the phone of JB and Co. when they talk with other GM's. Understanding what the other guy wants and needs is EVERYTHING when it comes to making a trade.
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"Whom the Gods wish to destroy, they first call promising"
Any chance Callapso works his way back into the picture as Hudson's eventual replacement? He's been hitting well over .400 since being sent down and he's certain to be a defensive upgrade over Reynolds at 2nd base. He didn't impress early on with the bat in the bigs, but maybe that was a combination of Seitzer and lack of playing time. He was one of the top hitters in the PCL last season, so that would seem to translate to major league success at some point. Reynolds has been making some nice plays at 3rd of late and seems to be a fit there. Tracy has been capable at first. I kind of think Conor might be the odd man out in the long term due to his defensive liabilities, baserunning instincts, and lack of power. Perhaps a trade of Hudson and Conor in the off-season would bring a front-line arm.
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