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Hairy Bean Bag
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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 Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:44 am Post subject: 9/6 @ Florida Marlins |
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Pop! There goes my Gameday cherry.
With Ed Gon on the mound, and it sounds like Montero behind the plate, hopefully we will continue with the kids. But what's the chances of another Byrnes/Young/Quentin outfield? |
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TAP
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2642
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:41 am Post subject: Re: 9/6 @ Florida Marlins |
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| Hairy Bean Bag wrote: |
Pop! There goes my Gameday cherry.
With Ed Gon on the mound, and it sounds like Montero behind the plate, hopefully we will continue with the kids. But what's the chances of another Byrnes/Young/Quentin outfield? |
Even though Gonzo is likely to be playing elsewhere next season, the D-Backs are no longer "in a pennant race," and this is the last 4 weeks available to get experience for next year's guys, it's still unlikely that Melvin will bench Gonzo with the RHP Anibal Sanchez on the mound for Florida.
According to Nick Piecoro, you are likely to see Miguel Montero make his major league debut and first start behind the plate today.
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moviegeekjn
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1243
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:35 am Post subject: |
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| Thom and Grace were promoting Montrero's start today. BoMel told em so. |
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dirtygary
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Location: Phoenix
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:29 am Post subject: |
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Montero's starting. Kickass. Any idea on the rest of the starting lineup?
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qudjy1
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:35 am Post subject: |
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| Well, i think we can safely assume that montero will be in the 8 hole... gonzo will be starting... i cant imagine sitting young, but now im just speculating... the first 2, id be willing to bet the house... |
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:18 am Post subject: |
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I was looking at some of Edgar's Tucson numbers last night.
I really hope that tswinders and Bob A and the rest of the tucson contingent can help me understand how he has only gotten 3 wins in 24 starts down there. (He has 3 Complete games, but at least one of them must have been a loss as he got a victory a couple of starts ago in an 8 inning outing) Maybe some run support data would be helpful, if you've got it.
Some interesting points:
ERA: 3.94
A sub 4 ERA in the the PCL, and in TEP is ALWAYS a good ERA. In fact, thats good enough to rank 12th in the PCL.
K/BB Ratio 3.96
That is an outstanding ratio. 138 IP 107 K's, 27 Walks
Homers Allowed /9 .716
Again, pretty decent. 11 homers in 138 IP is not alot of homers playing in that league.
Overall, if you look at his stats page, another solid year for Edgar in AAA, except for the WL record.
Edgar Gonzalez Stat Page
One disturbing thing in his splits on that page you will notice is that he is far worse when AHEAD in the count than when behind in the count. I had to look at that several times to make sure I was seeing it right.
Is that possibly a screwup, and it is "reversed" meaning ahead in the count is really the batter aheady in the count? Look closely at those splits and you will see what I mean.
In his 18.7 innings of work in the majors this year he walked only 1, K'd 15, and allowed 2 homers. Of course he gave up 26 hits, and has an ERA of 6.27 with a FIP of 3.38
So what is it about Edgar that has his results always being far far worse than his components or peripherals?
(And if I hear the cliche about Edgar being a AAAA pitcher, I will ignore it.....give me some more concrete analysis please) |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:31 am Post subject: |
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http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=7149&type=pitching&year=2006
Just a theory.... Please note his splits by pitch count totals. Most guys have some trouble the 2nd 3rd time though a lineup... ive never seen it as bad as edgars (small sample size however).
I put batistas in there for reference.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=4815&type=pitching&year=2006
The explanation is one of 2 things in my mind. Better in-game scouting at the major league level, and vets who know how to adjust. OR, the kid not changing up patterns as the game goes on...
Just an idea... fire away... |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:47 am Post subject: |
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Nice of melvin to give montero his first start against Sanchez (a guy whos had a 1+ ERA in last 5 starts
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Scouting Report:
Gonzalez will be recalled from Triple-A Tucson to make Wednesday's start, his first since July 16. Arizona needed a spot starter because of Friday's rainout and Saturday's day-night doubleheader. With the Sidewinders, Gonzalez was 3-8 with a 3.83 ERA in 23 starts, and had 106 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings.
The rookie, obtained in the offseason trade that sent Josh Beckett to Boston, had his best start in his last outing. He pitched seven innings, giving up one run with a career-high seven strikeouts in a 3-2 victory over the Brewers. He also had better control in his last start, walking only two batters. He's looked strong in his last five outings, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA during that span. |
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Dangerfield
Everyday Player
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 708
Location: worm factory
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:55 am Post subject: |
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No it's about time the organization started looking at the way we pitch. Pitchers with great bb/ip ratio's and aren't putting guys away, up in the count, aren't intimidating/fooling guys/making them hit their pitch at the plate.
Take Greg maddux, the best pitcher of a generation/all time? pitcher that is. The only guy he has trouble with, is Gonz, and that's because Gonz likes the ball over the outer-half. He doesn't fall for pitch up head high and in, then 2 seamer tailing on the outer-half. Davis style was breaking pitch in the dirt, up two strikes. Price's style is go after the guy, on outer half preferably slider. OUr pitching here has been so predictable since Damien Miller left. And no Estrada doesn't call a game. The guy who was coming into his own calling a game was Hammock. He was very underrated, on the stuff he was trying to do. wonder what Hale and him talked about this year. Enrique thrived with him. Nippert didn't, not that I know, if Hammock had much to with either of them, but I suspect he did. The offensive catcher is way overrated.
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Last edited by Dangerfield on Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:20 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3651
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:09 am Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=7149&type=pitching&year=2006
Just a theory.... Please note his splits by pitch count totals. Most guys have some trouble the 2nd 3rd time though a lineup... ive never seen it as bad as edgars (small sample size however).
I put batistas in there for reference.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=4815&type=pitching&year=2006
The explanation is one of 2 things in my mind. Better in-game scouting at the major league level, and vets who know how to adjust. OR, the kid not changing up patterns as the game goes on...
Just an idea... fire away... |
Like you said, small sample sizes, but look at the averages when he is ahead in the count 0-1, and 0-2...compared to other counts......MUCH worse. He must be getting ahead in count, and then just throwing meatballs....
Like Dangerfield just said....pitch calling, and also concentration or focus from Edgar must be lacking here.
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TAP
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2642
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:09 am Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
| OUr pitching here has been so predictable since Damien Miller left. And no Estrada doesn't call a game. The guy who was coming into his own calling a game was Hammock. He was very underrated, on the stuff he was trying to do. wonder what Hale and him talked about this year. Enrique thrived with him. The offensive catcher is way overrated. |
Hammock was RJ's preferred catcher.
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Dylan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 237
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
| wonder what Hale and him talked about this year. Enrique thrived with him. Nippert didn't, not that I know, if Hammock had much to with either of them, but I suspect he did. |
I'm pretty sure he didn't. Hammock maybe played 25-30 games at C this year, the rest of the time he was at 1B, RF, and LF. Brito was the main C, with Castillo getting a short stint, and then Montero.
Brito's 73 games, Castillo's 6, Montero's 36, and DeCarlo's 1 total 116 games. Leaving 28 games at C for Hammock to fill.
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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 487
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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Shoe:
Here is a quick run down
Run Support 4.75 Runs surrenderd 2.54
I will send you the complete chart via PM[/img]
can't get it attached if you want to see it PM your e-mail thanks
Last edited by TSWINDERS on Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:14 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
Like you said, small sample sizes, but look at the averages when he is ahead in the count 0-1, and 0-2...compared to other counts......MUCH worse. He must be getting ahead in count, and then just throwing meatballs....
Like Dangerfield just said....pitch calling, and also concentration or focus from Edgar must be lacking here. |
I agree that the count splits are wierd, and that he appears to be trhowing meatballs even when ahead.
But what is interesting though, is why would that "work" at the AAA level, and not with the big club? i guess i am assuming that he isnt changing strategies between levels. That same pitching style (lots of strikes) seems to be working reasonably well in AAA.
He might be the kind of pitcher that needs to throw LESS strikes esp when ahead, and would benefit from having a lower k/9 rate...
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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Well, I don't think it DID work at the AAA level.....according to the splits in the link above, his ahead in count numbers are terrible.
Very strange. |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| I just meant his overall performance - as you have detailed above... |
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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 487
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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Ahead in the count = 5.56 ERA and .331 BA
Behind=2.26 ERA and .223 BA
He was actually someone you wanted to see fall behind in the count. |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
Ahead in the count = 5.56 ERA and .331 BA
Behind=2.26 ERA and .223 BA |
What does that mean though? IMO, hes going for strike outs, not outs. Once he falls behind, he pitches to contact...
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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ITS FLIPPED!
How can you have 0 walks when behind in count? |
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Dylan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 237
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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I wasn't paying close attention to the Gonzalez discussion, but wouldn't it have been easy to look at the other TUC pitchers for reference initially?
Mike Bacsik
Dustin Nippert
Micah Owings |
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| hehe... |
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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 487
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Ahead in the count = 5.56 ERA and .331 BA
Behind=2.26 ERA and .223 BA |
What does that mean though? IMO, hes going for strike outs, not outs. Once he falls behind, he pitches to contact...
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100% correct.. When he gets ahead he tries to K the batter and leaves his put away pitch over the plate when batters are defensive mode those pitches that catch to much of plate get hit. When he falls behind he abandons the K pitch and focuses just on finding the zone. Why it works is because the hitters still have the breaking pitch in there minds and it keeps them just a little tardy on the heat.
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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Name AVG HR RBI SB
1. O Hudson, 2B .292 13 64 8
2. C Jackson, 1B .277 11 64 0
3. L Gonzalez, LF .275 14 66 0
4. E Byrnes, CF .277 21 63 20
5. C Tracy, 3B .279 16 69 4
6. C Quentin, RF .237 6 21 1
7. S Drew, SS .314 3 17 1
8. M Montero, C - - - -
9. E Gonzalez, P .500 0 0 0
Name AVG HR RBI SB
1. H Ramirez, SS .282 13 49 44
2. D Uggla, 2B .291 22 81 6
3. M Cabrera, 3B .335 23 102 9
4. J Willingham, LF .278 21 64 2
5. M Jacobs, 1B .271 18 72 3
6. J Borchard, RF .229 8 25 0
7. M Olivo, C .269 14 49 2
8. A Amezaga, CF .275 3 16 14
9. A Sanchez, P .095 0 1 0 |
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qudjy1
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1305
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| 100% correct.. When he gets ahead he tries to K the batter and leaves his put away pitch over the plate when batters are defensive mode those pitches that catch to much of plate get hit. When he falls behind he abandons the K pitch and focuses just on finding the zone. Why it works is because the hitters still have the breaking pitch in there minds and it keeps them just a little tardy on the heat. |
The stats are flipped, its from the batter perspective.
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TSWINDERS
Journeyman
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 487
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| Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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| qudjy1 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| 100% correct.. When he gets ahead he tries to K the batter and leaves his put away pitch over the plate when batters are defensive mode those pitches that catch to much of plate get hit. When he falls behind he abandons the K pitch and focuses just on finding the zone. Why it works is because the hitters still have the breaking pitch in there minds and it keeps them just a little tardy on the heat. |
The stats are flipped, its from the batter perspective.
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Yep it is I just noticed that.
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