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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 10:53 am Post subject: Scrap Heap Candidates for next year
These are some guys that JB might want to consider taking a run at on one or two year, incentive laden deals.
1.) Jason Jennings: Had surgery for a torn flexor tendon in his elbow on Sept 1. Recovery time is 6 months. He should be good to go by April. There was some thought he had a shoulder injury before the elbow tendon problem was revealed. That still may be the case, but maybe the extra rest will help calm his shoulder down too. The guy has always had very good groundball rates until this year, and I'm sure the injury had something to do with it.
Levski has long desired Jason Jennings...(not that there's anything wrong with that)
2.) Matt Clement: Recovering from both torn Labrum and torn rotator cuff surgery. It may be too late for him....that seems like a lot to come back from. He also always had good groundball rates, and for a while, good K rates too, which he neeeded because he always walked a lot of guys. He is pitching in simulated games, which means he should be ready to go in spring training.
3.) Randy Wolf: JB went after this Tommy John ssurgery survivor last year, but the Dodgers out bid him. Levski liked him, I didn't. Mostly because of his Flyball tendencies He had a nice little stretch where Lev got to say "I told you so", but then he became less effective and ended back on the DL, with a sore shoulder. He had exploratory, or diagnostic surgery, and they found no structural damage, just some debris.
The Dodgers have an option on him for 9 million, but if they don't pick it up, I doubt Wolf will command more than the 8 million he got this year. Probably half that, with incentives.
4.) Kris Benson: Don't laugh. Low k rates, sure, but always pretty decent GB rates and Good Control. He only had a partially torn rotator cuff, and had surgery to correct back in March. He will be ready to go in spring training, and may not be a bad guy to take a flyer on. Baltimore has a club option for 2008 for 7.5 million....they most likely won't pick it up.
For any of these guys, the team would need to break it's policy of no "incentive" deals. I know they really desire cost certainty, but right now I think they are going to have to take a chance on a guy like this, just in case RJ can't make it back and none of the young pitchers in the organization step up for 2008.
Of course JB may be able to swing a trade, but I don't think it will be as easy as last year to pry away a Doug Davis type pitcher from some team.
Last edited by shoewizard on Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:09 am Post subject:
As you said, any such offer would be predicated upon a decision by the owners to allow incentive-related contracts. So, how likely is it that this "no incentives" policy gets reversed?
Maybe this question could be put to one of the FO guys at the "town hall"-style events, or to Mr. Hall at his monthly on-line session?
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 11:58 am Post subject:
Robert S. wrote:
Have there been rumblings about breaking the incentive policy?
I have no idea....I haven't heard a thing.
One thing that leads me to believe they might have some extra flexibility is the comments from Jeff Moorad. He said that payroll will be more than this years, 70 million, and they had originally budgeted 60-65 this year, and exceeded that. So it's very possible they have the flexibility to go to 75 in 2008, especially with the attendance bump. If they make the playoffs and can actually win a series and get a couple extra home playoff games, they'll have even more room. So that MIGHT allow them the flexibility to take on a little cost uncertainty in the form of incentive contracts.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: Scrap Heap Candidates for next year
shoewizard wrote:
Of course JB may be able to swing a trade, but I don't think it will be as easy as last year to pry away a Doug Davis type pitcher from some team.
I think it depends on what premium the FO places on contention for next year. They will have one helluva high collapse-rate rotation if they pull a dude off the pile and that's it for additions. Likewise, a Davis-type trade is banking on a pitcher bouncing back from an off-year. Are they prepared to accept a worst-case scenario? The majority of the fanbase will be expecting the playoffs, regardless of how this season ends.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:58 pm Post subject:
Any way they do it, they are going to have to take risk, gamble on a "bounce back season", or a guy coming back from injury, or a young pitcher making the great leap forward...etc.
There are no short cuts here. They are going to have to take risks. And it may all go to hell in a handbasket....but there is nothing they can do to stop that if that is what fate dictates.
They could also get lucky and Webb stays healthy, Davis maintains this years level, RJ doesn't re injure his back this time, and manages to give them 25 starts, Owings learns a changeup, Edgars two seamer continues to improve, and/or they get a scrap heap guy that contributes.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:03 pm Post subject:
Anderson will be up by Jun. next year. Mark it down.
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This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:15 pm Post subject:
Think Royals are going to give up on Greinke?
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:16 pm Post subject:
levski wrote:
Dangerfield wrote:
Anderson will be up by Jun. next year. Mark it down.
Up where?
He's by far our best pitching prospect since Webb. Yes he's that advanced and good. Number 2 starter.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:25 pm Post subject:
levski wrote:
This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
My gut tells me you are overrating Q's trade value, and that he won't bring back a guy that you can just "slot in" at #3 or 4 and reasonably project to be any better than what we already have. Q is quite the tarnished penny.
This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
My gut tells me you are overrating Q's trade value, and that he won't bring back a guy that you can just "slot in" at #3 or 4 and reasonably project to be any better than what we already have. Q is quite the tarnished penny.
maybe. but I think you're underestimating the value of pre-arb hitters with solid projections playing decently valuable defensive positions.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:34 pm Post subject:
levski wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
My gut tells me you are overrating Q's trade value, and that he won't bring back a guy that you can just "slot in" at #3 or 4 and reasonably project to be any better than what we already have. Q is quite the tarnished penny.
maybe. but I think you're underestimating the value of pre-arb hitters with solid projections playing decently valuable defensive positions.
We're trading Q and Nippert for Luke Scott and B. Lidge. Although Nippert tandelizes, even googles says that not a word.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:40 pm Post subject:
shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
My gut tells me you are overrating Q's trade value, and that he won't bring back a guy that you can just "slot in" at #3 or 4 and reasonably project to be any better than what we already have. Q is quite the tarnished penny.
Once he gets away, he'll be on his way, and that's not a blow to this organization, timing didn't work out for him here. He'll have over 100 rbi's next year.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:42 pm Post subject:
levski wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
My gut tells me you are overrating Q's trade value, and that he won't bring back a guy that you can just "slot in" at #3 or 4 and reasonably project to be any better than what we already have. Q is quite the tarnished penny.
maybe. but I think you're underestimating the value of pre-arb hitters with solid projections playing decently valuable defensive positions.
I can't wait to see the ZIPS next year for AZ hitters. It's not gonna be pretty. I'll be extremely surprised if Q is projected to have over a .750 OPS....EXTREMELY.
I know of at least a couple of very smart baseball men who are high on Q and think he'll be an above average corner outfielder in 2009, possibly sooner. Those guys are valuable to organizations that can value them. I think people in AZ are so spoilt with the wealth of young cheap outfielders with high ceilings that they cannot always comprehend the value of someone like Q.
Of course, having your idiot team owner effectively pack Q's bags out of town six months before you can trade him doesn't help your GM's efforts.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:48 pm Post subject:
shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
This is really simple. In the winter, you trade Quentin plus/minus a few spare parts for a guy you can slot in your #3-4 slot and you can control for several years. I'm thinking guys like Greinke, one of the Twins surplus guys (I like Garza but then who doesn't), etc, etc. Worst case scenario, you trade Q for Garland and prospects and/or cash. Then if RJ is truly healthy, your rotation is Webb, RJ, #3, Davis, Edgar. You move Micah to the pen if he doesn't have that offspeed pitch, and in the pen he should be able to dominate with the greater fastball/slider separatation.
After that, it's a new day.
My gut tells me you are overrating Q's trade value, and that he won't bring back a guy that you can just "slot in" at #3 or 4 and reasonably project to be any better than what we already have. Q is quite the tarnished penny.
maybe. but I think you're underestimating the value of pre-arb hitters with solid projections playing decently valuable defensive positions.
I can't wait to see the ZIPS next year for AZ hitters. It's not gonna be pretty. I'll be extremely surprised if Q is projected to have over a .750 OPS....EXTREMELY.
Buy low, especially if he's on a team with obp. He's a 250-280 hitter, 330-350 obp guy. He's a plater and producer.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:52 pm Post subject:
levski wrote:
I know of at least a couple of very smart baseball men who are high on Q and think he'll be an above average corner outfielder in 2009, possibly sooner. Those guys are valuable to organizations that can value them. I think people in AZ are so spoilt with the wealth of young cheap outfielders with high ceilings that they cannot always comprehend the value of someone like Q.
Of course, having your idiot team owner effectively pack Q's bags out of town six months before you can trade him doesn't help your GM's efforts.
Gm packed his bags in July before Byrnes was re-signed.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:56 pm Post subject:
Well, I am sure there are many that still feel Q's talent will win out. I have to admit, I am probably overly influenced from watching every single one of his 255 plate appearances this year. It was so brutal to watch, I am scarred by it.
If you take out the first week of Q's career, after which teams learned his fatal flaw...(he'll swing at anything so never give him a first pitch fastball, or if you do, throw it up around his eyes),
He's already 25 years old. Hopefully for him his problems were caused in large part by the shoulder injury, and maybe he gets that "fixed" and comes back strong somewhere next year. It's certainly possible. But the bottom line is this:
CARLOS QUENTIN IS AN UNDISCIPLINED HACKER AND SHOWED ZERO INDICATION OR DESIRE TO CHANGE.
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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:57 pm Post subject:
shoewizard wrote:
Well, I am sure there are many that still feel Q's talent will win out. I have to admit, I am probably overly influenced from watching every single one of his 255 plate appearances this year. It was so brutal to watch, I am scarred by it.
If you take out the first week of Q's career, after which teams learned his fatal flaw...(he'll swing at anything so never give him a first pitch fastball, or if you do, throw it up around his eyes),
He's already 25 years old. Hopefully for him his problems were caused in large part by the shoulder injury, and maybe he gets that "fixed" and comes back strong somewhere next year. It's certainly possible. But the bottom line is this:
CARLOS QUENTIN IS AN UNDISCIPLINED HACKER AND SHOWED ZERO INDICATION OR DESIRE TO CHANGE.
Okay.
Mark it down, where he'll be next year. If he would of been left alone, he'd be 260 over 80 rbi's right now. But no matter so is Reynolds btw, and he's the only one I want in risp situations, for this team right now.
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Last edited by Dangerfield on Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:25 pm; edited 2 times in total
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